ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like a TD to me. It is consistently firing convection over the LLC

yeah, it has been nearly 24 hours of sustained convection... albiet sheared.

[TheProfessor]

Both the 18 HWRF and HMON have short lived tropical storms with this system before they weaken it.

[Yellow Evan]

No idea why this is 20% given its nearly classifiable and model support is rising. NHC has been quite conservative with percentages recently.

[SFLcane]

We'll see if it has a good dmax.

[toad strangler]

Come on we need a named MDR system before Aug 1 or else Shell Mound will call BUST to the season

[Aric Dunn]

No idea why this is 20% given its nearly classifiable and model support is rising. NHC has been quite conservative with percentages recently.

This happens every year when it is out in the middle of the ocean not affecting anyone except the random shipping lanes... easily classifiable.. but who cares.

and of course, someone will have a rebuttal saying well this that and other why its only at 20 % and shouldn't be upgraded.

then someone will come back and say if this was near land it would already be a TD... lol ( which it should be)

[drezee]

We always have this threshold. If it was in the Gulf of Mexico, would it be classified. For what I am looking at now, if that convection is still there by 0z...then yes it would.

Long season ahead...NHC wants it to earn its stripes

[Aric Dunn]

latest.

[Ubuntwo]

[supercane4867]

Very close to becoming a TD, but not quite there yet IMO.

[northjaxpro]

The latest ASCAT above looks pretty good tonight. Right now, this system is a classifiable cyclone for yours truly. Right at the threshold.of a TD now, if it isn't already. Convection has consistently pulsated around the LLC throughout the day into the evening.

[TheStormExpert]

Very close to becoming a TD, but not quite there yet IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/X4z4KfM.gif

Looks to be experiencing some northeasterly wind shear. Of course the shear maps are not processing right now.

[Ubuntwo]

The latest ASCAT above looks pretty good tonight. Right now, this system is a classifiable cyclone for yours truly. Right at the threshold.of a TD now, if it isn't already. Convection has consistently pulsated around the LLC throughout the day into the evening.

The mid level structure is there, but the circulation is clearly elongated beyond the extent that the NHC will classify. IMO, this dmax the convection will pinch off the circ into a more well-defined LLC.

[toad strangler]

I have no faith in the longevity of 99L but short term a different story. 99L wetting the MDR whistle?

 http://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1285381772692381697

[northjaxpro]

The latest ASCAT above looks pretty good tonight. Right now, this system is a classifiable cyclone for yours truly. Right at the threshold.of a TD now, if it isn't already. Convection has consistently pulsated around the LLC throughout the day into the evening.

The mid level structure is there, but the circulation is clearly elongated beyond the extent that the NHC will classify. IMO, this dmax the convection will pinch off the circ into a more well-defined LLC.

The convection is there. It has sustained the LLC all day, despite shear. DMAX, if it does what we expect, should help to lead NHC's hand in classifying this tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

That hot tower on the NE side of circ is yet another sign this is a TC.

[SFLcane]

That hot tower on the NE side of circ is yet another sign this is a TC.

+1..

Count me in this is a developing TC folks.

[floridasun78]

let see how look over night if stay the way look now or get weaker

[Ivanhater]

Blowup over the center is expanding and an inflow arch to the north is forming

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[AxaltaRacing24]

tropical storm gonzalo is looking good tonight