ATL: GONZALO - Models

[Aric Dunn]

12z HWRF is going bonkers with intensity. Probably going to have a solid major before reaching the islands.

103 kts at 84 hours..

[supercane4867]

12z HWRF @ 114hr: Martinique taking a direct hit from the 100kt major hurricane.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z HWRF is going bonkers with intensity. Probably going to have a solid major before reaching the islands.

103 kts at 84 hours..

That's not at the surface though Aric...Granted, it was 83 knots at the surface which isn't anything to ignore.

[supercane4867]

HWRF is gonna HWRF

[Aric Dunn]

120 kts into st lucia/Martinique for the HWRF in 5 days.

[Aric Dunn]

12z HWRF is going bonkers with intensity. Probably going to have a solid major before reaching the islands.

103 kts at 84 hours..

That's not at the surface though Aric...Granted, it was 83 knots at the surface which isn't anything to ignore.

We go through this every year.

Once the HWRF reaches roughly hurricane strength recon drops/FL/SFMR more closely match the HWRF's 850mb winds.

under hurricane strength, the 10m winds are more reliable.

[sma10]

CMC (who actually was first to sniff out 99L) has another low riding CV behind 99L heading towards Jamaica at T240. Euro hinted at this last night too.

[chaser1]

Let the model and wobble watch begin!

[Aric Dunn]

and the Euro kills it in 72 hours or less. lol

[SFLcane]

and the Euro kills it in 72 hours or less. lol

Yeah reminds me of Isaac. Global models won that one.

[Aric Dunn]

and the Euro kills it in 72 hours or less. lol

Yeah reminds me of Isaac. Global models won that one.

This is in a much better environment though. low shear nice moisture pocket. not moving 300 mph.

I think the SAL parameters with the global models need to be toned down a tad lol

[NDG]

ECWMF one of the models that has not been handling the system well past its 48-72 hr range.

[St0rmTh0r]

12z HWRF is going bunkers with intensity. Probably going to have a solid major before reaching the islands.

It has an 80 kt/978 mbar hurricane in only 72 hours. Could just be a case of a trigger-happy HWRF, or 99L could pull a Danny ‘15 on us and rapidly intensify into a Cat 2/3.

There has been many times where these storms strengthen far more than what a model shows. Have to look at the real time data and this storm is really beefing up

[NDG]

More Euro ensembles show it making it to the Windward Islands than previous run.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS kills this off in the Eastern Caribbean:

[toad strangler]

18Z GFS kills this off in the Eastern Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/SKBN1QVx/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-17.png

That's a perfectly plausible scenario. This thing has already overperformed.

[NDG]

18Z GFS kills this off in the Eastern Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/SKBN1QVx/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-17.png

For the past several runs the trend has been to keep it alive further and further west on each consecutive run.

[crownweather]

18Z GFS kills this off in the Eastern Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/SKBN1QVx/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-17.png

For the past several runs the trend has been to keep it alive further and further west on each consecutive run.

https://i.imgur.com/skeKPXr.gif

And also a trend towards a weaker and weaker E Pacific tropical cyclone. So, a weaker EPac system could mean less shear in the Caribbean as a stronger system in the eastern Pacific would impart more outflow shear into the western Caribbean.

[Aric Dunn]

18z hwrf/hmon updating for anyone ?

[Aric Dunn]

18z Euro .. a little stronger.