ATL: HANNA - Models

[HurricaneBrain]

TVCN with a Freeport landfall. Agreed recon needs to fly into this today regardless of improvement of structure. Need data inserted into the globals.

[SoupBone]

The Euro wants to bring some really heavy rains into the Corpus Christi area now, up to 12". Yesterday, it was focused mor on San Antonio.

[Steve]

Here's some updated 12z stuff from the mesoscale models

12Z HRRR @ 36 hours / Tomorrow night at 7pm


12Z 3km NAM @ 48 hours / 7am Friday

[Steve]

ICON is in and it stalls it around the coast of Texas hence a couple spots in South Texas over 12" of rain. We'll see if the GFS catches up or insists no more than a half inch or so.

[Steve]

GFS through 66 hours doesn't even have any 2" amounts onshore. Still not buying this.

[Steve]

Canadian is more similar to the ICON, NAM and EC than the GFS. This is through 120 hours / 7pm Sunday.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z Euro actually strengthens this close to landfall and then over land. That is a sign this could become something as the last minute as it makes landfall.

[supercane4867]

Euro is drunk. 1003mb -> 991mb over land.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Strengthening over South Texas

[Hammy]

Nice to see Euro jumping on board as model support rapidly increases, GFS is the only holdout now.

[Stormcenter]

Is it April Fools Day? I mean really, the EURO
is in la la land with strengthening over land thing.

[Portastorm]

As Houston-area met Matt Lanza just pointed out on Twitter, the conditions necessary for a "Brown Ocean" effect will not be in play in South Texas. That makes the Euro scenario even more improbable.

[SoupBone]

The EURO's rainfall forecast is not good for the Corpus Christi area.

[Steve]

LOL. Usually systems deepen overland when moving north and undergoing baroclinic processes. However, I wouldn't discount the idea of a better environment slightly inland and moving west of suppression. I don't think it would drop 10mb, more like 1-2. HRRR 18z is running, and I'll have that up in a few minutes.

[jaguars_22]

HRRR slows down the forward motion once it nears the coast or so it seems... I guess recon isnt flying today

[Steve]

Yeah, that's been a theme with some of the models showing a slow crawl west near to or at the coast. Here's HRRR valid 1am Friday

[Hammy]

Is it April Fools Day? I mean really, the EURO
is in la la land with strengthening over land thing.

It does that often for some reason.

[Cpv17]

Is it April Fools Day? I mean really, the EURO
is in la la land with strengthening over land thing.

It does that often for some reason.

I agree! I’ve seen the Euro do that many times. Not sure why it does that?

[Steve]

NAM 3km @ 27 hours / 4pm tomorrow



I'm thinking it might have it over-organized, though Thursday seemed like the day we'd get the most change (upgrade) in organization

[TheProfessor]

I'm not sure how well the Parallel GFS is verifying and this run is 24 hours old(but the latest), but it's showing the potential for a strong feeder band east of the storm around the Louisiana and Mississippi border. Could be interesting to see if any other models picks up on that.