ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[SoupBone]

18z GFS still not really onboard with development. Maybe a td. Just looks like sheared early season slop storm in the Gulf.

And how many times has that been correct this season?

[Steve]

If it develops I would have to guess an Ivan like track (not intensity!) this early. Really has been a while since we've seen a real Caribbean cruiser.

Ivan like? Is that even possible with the upper modeling in the 12z runs that developed it? Most models that developed it showed extensive ridging with it likely going far south and west of New Orleans. Next weekend is a long way off with lots of possibilities, but super early you’d think Mexico or South Texas. Why Baldwin/Escambia/Santa Rosa Counties?

I'd have to agree with you on that Steve. Early betting favorite is somewhere across the western Gulf. But like you said, it's still far out and way too early to tell. I think anywhere in the Gulf could be in play.

Now is the time to prepare though. By next weekend there could be a mad rush if there is a developing tropical system heading into the Gulf. And chances are increasing that this will be the case.

Great point. We don't have all that much on reserve at the moment, so I'll probably make a run fairly early in the week for some non-perishables as well as ice, beer, caffeine, whiskey, cigs and the usual storm supplies.

[TheProfessor]

? Ridge will be building in behind a trough split toward Thursday or Friday that absolutely will happen. It may be too far south to come up this way or even toward Beaumont. Threat looks south of there by a good bit imho.

Like always it will depend on the strength of the storm. If the storm stay weak through the Caribbean, then I agree with you. But, if we have a hurricane moving through instead, it's likely going to feel the pull from the 500mb level steering and that's going to take it further east. The earlier the storm strengthens the further east it goes. It doesn't always workout this way, but that looks to be the case this time around.

Most of the upper models I looked at had the split and resulting weakness across LA/MS. If 97L had a few days head start, I think that it more likely would have felt that weakness particularly since it will slow down. Also if it's moving slowly in the central Gulf I can see that. But they also show a solid push in from the East/ESE as the trough otherwise lifts out. So maybe there is a magic latitude it could be at where a N or NW track could be more likely. It'll be cool to watch all week, and I'll try to post when I can on the models thread.

It was mentioned in the models thread, but short term speed will make an impact on where the storm goes. If we see it approaching the Yucatan channel as a hurricane by this Friday I think it will be moving either due north or northeasterly at that point. If it slows down quite a bit it definitely makes it more like to miss the trough that sets up in a few days. It's going to be an interesting competition between the faster models and the slower ones.

[Steve]

Cool, thanks Prof. I haven't been over to that thread yet.

[psyclone]

I think you guys are onto something wrt future track. A straight climo bet is west. But we've had some troughy conditions this season that make such a solution more iffy than usual. it is exactly why i suggested a couple days back to take no comfort in troughiness along with a more favorable Caribbean. Early instinct still leans west but more uncertainty than would otherwise be the case..

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely some curved inflow becoming quickly established.

another 12 hours of continued convection like this and it will be well on its way.

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc20/ ... .094pc.jpg

[tailgater]

Cloud tops warming somewhat at the moment

[eastcoastFL]

I think yeah, a stronger system within the next 24-36 hours means a more northerly track and not a crash into CA.

What is CA?

[DestinHurricane]

I think yeah, a stronger system within the next 24-36 hours means a more northerly track and not a crash into CA.

What is CA?

Central America

[eastcoastFL]

I think yeah, a stronger system within the next 24-36 hours means a more northerly track and not a crash into CA.

What is CA?

Central America

Thank you. I was coming up with every acronym in the region and that one didn’t pop

[storm4u]

I think yeah, a stronger system within the next 24-36 hours means a more northerly track and not a crash into CA.

What is CA?

Central America

[cycloneye]

Shower and thunderstorm activity has continued to increase in
association with a fast-moving tropical wave located about 500 miles
east of the Windward Islands. This disturbance is expected to move
westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and that fast
forward speed is likely to limit significant development while the
system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward Islands on
Monday, and moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.
After that time, however, the system is expected to move more slowly
westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea, where
upper-level winds could become more conducive for the development of
a tropical depression during the middle-to-latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[eastcoastFL]

Lots of moisture for 97l to pull from

[ConvergenceZone]

If this becomes the L storm, what would be the name?

[SconnieCane]

https://i.imgur.com/v26HkMH.png

That's implying a very Ivan-esque track right there.

[ronjon]

I think you guys are onto something wrt future track. A straight climo bet is west. But we've had some troughy conditions this season that make such a solution more iffy than usual. it is exactly why i suggested a couple days back to take no comfort in troughiness along with a more favorable Caribbean. Early instinct still leans west but more uncertainty than would otherwise be the case..

Pretty substantial positively-tilted long wave trough at 500 mb forecasted by the GFS down to the northern GOM forecast the next 5-9 days. I know its a week out and things change, but that trough completely erodes the Atlantic ridges western half over the western and central GOM. Almost looks like a Charley-like trough. If this verifies, the western Caribbean storm would move north or N-NE from the Yuc straits.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2020081618&fh=6

[AnnularCane]

If this becomes the L storm, what would be the name?

Laura.

[SoupBone]

Shower and thunderstorm activity has continued to increase in
association with a fast-moving tropical wave located about 500 miles
east of the Windward Islands. This disturbance is expected to move
westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and that fast
forward speed is likely to limit significant development while the
system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward Islands on
Monday, and moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.
After that time, however, the system is expected to move more slowly
westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea, where
upper-level winds could become more conducive for the development of
a tropical depression during the middle-to-latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/v26HkMH.png

Earlier development, more eastern/northern solution? But it does say move slowly to the western caribbean.

[psyclone]

I think you guys are onto something wrt future track. A straight climo bet is west. But we've had some troughy conditions this season that make such a solution more iffy than usual. it is exactly why i suggested a couple days back to take no comfort in troughiness along with a more favorable Caribbean. Early instinct still leans west but more uncertainty than would otherwise be the case..

Pretty substantial positively-tilted long wave trough at 500 mb forecasted by the GFS down to the northern GOM forecast the next 5-9 days. I know its a week out and things change, but that trough completely erodes the Atlantic ridges western half over the western and central GOM. Almost looks like a Charley-like trough. If this verifies, the western Caribbean storm would move north or N-NE from the Yuc straits.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2020081618&fh=6

The risk of a more easterly solution is likely destined to be higher than one would expect based upon calendar alone. I have been watching WPC's 7 day QPF output with interest. It's juicy in our neck of the woods. To be fair, a more westerly solution would be beyond 7 days so those folks are not out of the hunt by any stretch, it's just more like 8-10 days. Needless to say, watching the evolution of this and other guidance over the next few days will help provide some clarity.

[Steve]

I think you guys are onto something wrt future track. A straight climo bet is west. But we've had some troughy conditions this season that make such a solution more iffy than usual. it is exactly why i suggested a couple days back to take no comfort in troughiness along with a more favorable Caribbean. Early instinct still leans west but more uncertainty than would otherwise be the case..

Pretty substantial positively-tilted long wave trough at 500 mb forecasted by the GFS down to the northern GOM forecast the next 5-9 days. I know its a week out and things change, but that trough completely erodes the Atlantic ridges western half over the western and central GOM. Almost looks like a Charley-like trough. If this verifies, the western Caribbean storm would move north or N-NE from the Yuc straits.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2020081618&fh=6

Navgem likes that solution. Thing is though is that it has it coming up a bit after the trough is splitting off. There would remain a weakness, but it also shows high pressure building in from the ESE at 500mb. So if it was right, and it never is, the threat would be more from here over to the Western Panhandle. It wouldn't be able to come up farther east based on its solution. You could see a scenario where it could come up farther east much farther south. But by the time it's got latitude, it's running out of options. Not the models thread, but here it is at 180 hours as a point of reference. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=180