WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

HWRF

[euro6208]

[gatorcane]

Saved vis loop, lots of deep convection. Looks like the WPAC is going to rack up some ACE with this one:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Highteeld]

[Hayabusa]

[euro6208]

Dvorak will be lagging again.

[euro6208]

Is that a pinhole? Looks better defined.

Image just 5-10 mins apart.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

We need recon asap!

How is this only 35 knots?

[euro6208]

[Highteeld]

Pretty strong hot tower with convection colder than -90* C

[aspen]

Maysak is battling some moderate shear and appears to have a CCC instead of a CDO. Any significant intensification won’t happen until shear lessens and allows for convection to wrap around the eastern side of the CoC.

[aspen]

From the JTWC’s advisory earlier today:

“TS Maysak will begin a slow, generally northwestward track over the next 12 hours as a reorientation of the steering ridges takes place. The environment will remain highly favorable for intensification with continued high OHC, very warm SST, robust equatorial outflow and low (<10 kts) VWS. Additionally, the aforementioned westward propagating TUTT cell positioned to the northeast of the system will begin to enhance the outflow. These conditions will lead to rapid intensification of the system as it tracks northward along the building STR, leading to an intensity of 70 kts by Tau 24.”

So shear is keeping a lid on Maysak for now, but as the steering currents switch around later today into tomorrow, wind shear will become much more favorable and allow the storm to take full advantage of the incredibly warm waters it’s sitting on top of. Once that happens, how fast it can intensify depends on how quickly it can get its core together, which will likely be on the larger side.

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

STS 2009 (Maysak)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 28 August 2020

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 28 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°35' (16.6°)
E129°35' (129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement SW Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area SW 330 km (180 NM)
NE 165 km (90 NM)

Now peak forecast at 100 knots

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 31 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N26°10' (26.2°)
E126°55' (126.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 220 km (120 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 430 km (230 NM)

[Hayabusa]

[aspen]

Maysak is still sheared, but I can tell that the TUTT is changing orientation. The east side was originally the bare side, but now it’s the north/NNE that is being sheared, as convection is now present in the east, west, and south quadrants.

[aspen]

I've marked up one of the first visible shots of Maysak. It is indeed slightly sheared with a broad LLC, but there are signs of it getting better organized.

There is obvious upper-level shear pushing the convection off of the center, although there are some bands trying to form (it's not longer just a massive blob) and some convection is trying to pop up on the partially exposed northern quadrant. If the JTWC is right, the effects of the TUTT will drop to minimal levels by tomorrow afternoon.

Maysak still has a lot to work with once it's allowed to organize an inner core and strengthen. It's even trying to build one now, as seen in a microwave pass from 21z.

[1900hurricane]

Low level structure starting to curl up. Pretty big circulation, but one that's definitely well established.

[dexterlabio]

Just a general comment on WPAC this year, it looks like there's just a lot of TUTT cells that make the basin atmospherically not conducive for TC development.

But from Bavi then now to Maysak, it feels like things are going to change in the Western Pacific this year. A below-average season indeed, but this could be the time that we start watching out for potentially damaging typhoons.