ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[wxman57]

Development unlikely.

[northjaxpro]

I'm betting recon will be pulled.

https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1303663666471075842

Yeah, I have been afraid of this potentially happening since yesterday.

Now they may plan to fly out to that mid-level vort tomorrow or Friday, should they cancel today as that disturbance will be approaching the South Florida coast by Friday.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm betting recon will be pulled.

https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1303663666471075842

Yeah, I have been afraid of this potentially happening since yesterday.

Now they may plan to fly out to that mid-level vort tomorrow or Friday, should they cancel today as that disturbance will be approaching the South Florida coast by Friday.

Dont count it out yet.. although small this is the best organized convection this thing has seen..

[TheStormExpert]

I'm betting recon will be pulled.

https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1303663666471075842

Yeah, I have been afraid of this potentially happening since yesterday.

Now they may plan to fly out to that mid-level vort tomorrow or Friday, should they cancel today as that disturbance will be approaching the South Florida coast by Friday.

Nothing is going to amount from this most likely as Levi said in his video from last night. The NHC's 30% seems too generous, I'd go with 10% if that.

[northjaxpro]

I'm betting recon will be pulled.

https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1303663666471075842

Yeah, I have been afraid of this potentially happening since yesterday.

Now they may plan to fly out to that mid-level vort tomorrow or Friday, should they cancel today as that disturbance will be approaching the South Florida coast by Friday.

Dont count it out yet.. although small this is the best organized convection this thing has seen..

Me, count out anything in the tropics? Blasphamous! Now ArIc, you know better

My mantra I famously preach on this forum and everyday life

Never say NEVER in anything weather and life!!!

[northjaxpro]

Just checked and Recon still is scheduled to fly out at 18Z this afternoon to see what is going on out here. Aric, US Tropics and yours truly discussed the mid-level vorticity we to the southeast, which has maintained convection for the past couple of days and continues this morning. However, there is a new burst of convection there currently.

The low level vort where Recon planned to investigate continues to be strugglng to fire convection this morming. This area will continue to move toward the North Carolina Coast as a weak Low/ vort by Friday morning and models continue to remain not enthusiastic about development.

Now, the mid level vort to the southeast will move south-southwest the next few days and actually cross the Central or South-Central Florida peninsula this weekend and then emerge into the Southeast GOM on Sunday. The 06Z ICON and the 00Z EURO from last night are hinting at this to happen.

So, if Recon flies out, I hope they look at this area to the southeast later today. Regardless of what eventually happens, more rain is a guarantee for much of the peninsula, especially Central and South Florida , later the weekend and into early next week as well.

Yeah, it has all been the same trough for the last few days. if something reforms south it will still be 94L . Note: convection is increasing around that llc as we speak.. first time in its life..


on a side note.. there is increasing vorticity along the west coast fo florida and broad rotation has begun with the convection. some of the vorticity from the NW carrib system has migrated up..

Icon 6z sort of combines all this stuff now and tries to develop something in the eastern gulf..

would be very 2020.. lol

Yes I noticed the vorticity inching north into the extreme Southeast GOM just off the SW Florida Coast.

Nothing shocks me anymore in the tropics with the way 2020 has evolved. Just about any vort seemingly will develop out there.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah, I have been afraid of this potentially happening since yesterday.

Now they may plan to fly out to that mid-level vort tomorrow or Friday, should they cancel today as that disturbance will be approaching the South Florida coast by Friday.

Dont count it out yet.. although small this is the best organized convection this thing has seen..

Me, count out anything in the tropics? Blasphamous! Now ArIc, you know better

My mantra I famously preach on this forum and everyday life

Never say NEVER in anything weather and life!!!

proportional to the size of the this circ.. this current burst is pretty significant.

[Aric Dunn]

Just checked and Recon still is scheduled to fly out at 18Z this afternoon to see what is going on out here. Aric, US Tropics and yours truly discussed the mid-level vorticity we to the southeast, which has maintained convection for the past couple of days and continues this morning. However, there is a new burst of convection there currently.

The low level vort where Recon planned to investigate continues to be strugglng to fire convection this morming. This area will continue to move toward the North Carolina Coast as a weak Low/ vort by Friday morning and models continue to remain not enthusiastic about development.

Now, the mid level vort to the southeast will move south-southwest the next few days and actually cross the Central or South-Central Florida peninsula this weekend and then emerge into the Southeast GOM on Sunday. The 06Z ICON and the 00Z EURO from last night are hinting at this to happen.

So, if Recon flies out, I hope they look at this area to the southeast later today. Regardless of what eventually happens, more rain is a guarantee for much of the peninsula, especially Central and South Florida , later the weekend and into early next week as well.

Yeah, it has all been the same trough for the last few days. if something reforms south it will still be 94L . Note: convection is increasing around that llc as we speak.. first time in its life..


on a side note.. there is increasing vorticity along the west coast fo florida and broad rotation has begun with the convection. some of the vorticity from the NW carrib system has migrated up..

Icon 6z sort of combines all this stuff now and tries to develop something in the eastern gulf..

would be very 2020.. lol

Yes I noticed the vorticity inching north into the extreme Southeast GOM just off the SW Florida Coast.

Nothing shocks me anymore in the tropics with the way 2020 has evolved. Just about any vort seemingly will develop out there.

currently west of tampa there appears to be some broad rotation with a weak meso vort on radar..

if the convection continues .. ill consider a thread later today.

[northjaxpro]

Well, there is already a bit of model support buildiing for possible Eastern Gulf development Aric. I would wait at least through the 18Z model runs late today before making a separate thread for that potential, just to see consistency with the runs.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: Well, there is already a bit of model support buildiing for possible Eastern Gulf development Aric. I would wait at least through the 18Z model runs late today before making a separate thread for that potential, just to see consistency with the runs.

models are poppycock..

only nowcasting this time of year..

[us89]

12z ATCF update:

94L INVEST 200909 1200 30.7N 73.0W ATL 20 1012

[plasticup]

proportional to the size of the this circ.. this current burst is pretty significant.

What circ?

[xironman]

Bottom center left. Kind of obscured by the thunderstorm

[Aric Dunn]

Sustained overshooting top right over the small LLC...

interesting..

[LarryWx]

Indeed, convection has been persisting over the center for a number of hours now and for the first time since it was SE of Bermuda. Don’t count this out yet, especially with it going into warmer waters.

[us89]

Still 30/30 as of 2 PM:

1. A small area of low pressure located about 300 miles southeast of
Wilmington, North Carolina, continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms near its center of circulation. The low
is forecast to move northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and some
development is possible before it moves inland over eastern North
Carolina Thursday afternoon. Interests along the coasts of North
and South Carolina should continue to monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[OuterBanker]

The blob around Hatteras looks a lot more ominous than this swirl.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Looks like it has at different times over the last 3 days. Just a tiny disturbance and LLC pulsing convection. I'm thinking this is out of time for any real development, but can't turn away since it's on my doorstep over the Gulfstream right about now. It's getting to the areas where I fish offshore LOL. Looks like it will make "partially naked mini swirl" landfall around Cape Lookout. Can't get enough convection going to get above 500 mb and there is dry air on both sides

[us89]

Down to 20/20:

1. A small low pressure area located about 240 miles southeast of
Wilmington, North Carolina, has become less organized since
yesterday. The low is forecast to move northwestward at 10 to 15
mph, and some development is still possible before it moves inland
over eastern North Carolina Thursday afternoon. Interests along the
coasts of North and South Carolina should continue to monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[us89]

Now down to 0/0. Sally can wait a few more days.

1. A trough of low pressure located just off the coast of North
Carolina is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity.
This system is expected to move inland over eastern North Carolina
this afternoon, and therefore significant development is not
expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.