ATL: DELTA - Models

[blp]

Why is the HWRF and HMON not running on 92L?

[blp]

Euro Ensembles have also shifted east from the 18z to 12z.

12z


18z

[aspen]

Why is the HWRF and HMON not running on 92L?

They’ll probably start sometime tomorrow, but until then, you can easily see 92L in the HWRF-P runs of Gamma.

[stormlover2013]

Euro Ensembles have also shifted east from the 18z to 12z.

12z
https://i.ibb.co/9vZxt8M/ecens-2020-10-03-12-Z-144-30-73-259-314-13-358-290-857-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

18z
https://i.ibb.co/g3WLzVh/ecens-2020-10-03-18-Z-144-30-73-259-314-13-358-290-857-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

I’m a euro guy guy but it has been awful this year

[StPeteMike]

I’ll believe the stalling or very slow movement from the EURO, but I’m not buying the intensity. All the models failed to capture the RI of Gamma before landfall, with many having it around 1003/4 MB. Even with Gamma to the west, future Delta should be far enough East that Gamma’s outflow has very little impact.

[kevin]

06z intensity forecast seems to be quite strong, especially for a disturbance that hasn't even formed yet and considering that models have been underestimating a lot of storms this year. SHIP says we could already have a TS in 12 hours. 06z HMON and HWRF also finally have 92L and are about halfway so we'll see what they do.

[kevin]

06z HMON strengthens quickly and barely scratches the tip of Cuba. Then it enters the Gulf as a strengthening major at only 72 hours . 104 knts, 952 mbar at 84 hours.

[Nimbus]

Glanced at the 06Z HWRF and they still haven't nailed down the ridging so..
Some 18Z runs last night were showing a split in the ridging allowing the more eastern track.
06Z HWRF still drifting west near 26N at the end of next week.
Gamma has lots of convection this morning and is moistening the gulf so I guess we watch that for our Florida POPs.

[kevin]

First intensity forecast with more models. 7 out of the 10 models have 92L as a hurricane. 06z HWRF peaked at 970 mbar, 80 knots. 06z HMON peaked at 954 mbar, 110 knots.

[Blown Away]

First intensity forecast with more models. 7 out of the 10 models have 92L as a hurricane. 06z HWRF peaked at 970 mbar, 80 knots. 06z HMON peaked at 954 mbar, 110 knots.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/92L_intensity_latest.png

Looking at the timing of the tracks, the intensity guidance starts to drop off long before any CONUS landfall.

[wxman57]

I think the HWRF track looks good, but I think it's intensity is WAY too strong in the northern Gulf. We have it weakening to a TD or a remnant low near SE LA Friday. HWRF says 82 kts. For Marco, with a similar setup, it was predicting 89 kts near SE LA, when all that remained was a remnant swirl of clouds. Conditions across the northern Gulf do not look favorable at all.

92L:


Marco HWRF:

[smw1981]

But didn’t the HWRF do the best track and intensity wise with Sally? If I remember correctly (and there’s a good chance I don’t! Haha), the HWRF sniffed out track and intensity before any other models. And when it had Sally strengthening up until landfall, we all thought it was out to lunch when it turned out to be correct. If so, I think we can’t discount it completely (although I do agree that conditions seem pretty hostile in the northern gulf right now).

[Gums]

Salute!

Good comparison WXman. If earlier in summer we should also be looking at Camille's track/history.

Our hope over here in the Panhandle is the projected cold front reaching Coast in 5 days and it will help a lot as it did for Opal. Otherwise, Michael Redux is possible and the same exact time of the year.

Gums sends...

[NDG]

The GFS paints a fairly good environment for 92L as it reaches the southern GOM into the central GOM so I really would not doubt in it becoming at least a Cat 2 hurricane like some hurricane models show.

[boca]

The poor people on the Gulf coast get more threats than we do in the Florida peninsula at least this year and hopefully 92L will eat some of that drier air that wxman 57 said in an earlier post.

[wxman57]

But didn’t the HWRF do the best track and intensity wise with Sally? If I remember correctly (and there’s a good chance I don’t! Haha), the HWRF sniffed out track and intensity before any other models. And when it had Sally strengthening up until landfall, we all thought it was out to lunch when it turned out to be correct. If so, I think we can’t discount it completely (although I do agree that conditions seem pretty hostile in the northern gulf right now).

It didn't perform too badly with Sally. Had it moving into SE LA early on with intensity from 70-100 kts. However, it had Gonzalo (storm that dissipated due to strong wind shear as it reached the eastern Caribbean) as a Cat 2 in the eastern Caribbean. It has a high bias toward strong storms. Doesn't seem to recognize increasing wind shear.

[DestinHurricane]

But didn’t the HWRF do the best track and intensity wise with Sally? If I remember correctly (and there’s a good chance I don’t! Haha), the HWRF sniffed out track and intensity before any other models. And when it had Sally strengthening up until landfall, we all thought it was out to lunch when it turned out to be correct. If so, I think we can’t discount it completely (although I do agree that conditions seem pretty hostile in the northern gulf right now).

It didn't perform too badly with Sally. Had it moving into SE LA early on with intensity from 70-100 kts. However, it had Gonzalo (storm that dissipated due to strong wind shear as it reached the eastern Caribbean) as a Cat 2 in the eastern Caribbean. It has a high bias toward strong storms. Doesn't seem to recognize increasing wind shear.

HWRF has performed the best this year with intensity. GFS and especially Euro have a high bias towards weak storms, particularly in the western basin.

[wxman57]

But didn’t the HWRF do the best track and intensity wise with Sally? If I remember correctly (and there’s a good chance I don’t! Haha), the HWRF sniffed out track and intensity before any other models. And when it had Sally strengthening up until landfall, we all thought it was out to lunch when it turned out to be correct. If so, I think we can’t discount it completely (although I do agree that conditions seem pretty hostile in the northern gulf right now).

It didn't perform too badly with Sally. Had it moving into SE LA early on with intensity from 70-100 kts. However, it had Gonzalo (storm that dissipated due to strong wind shear as it reached the eastern Caribbean) as a Cat 2 in the eastern Caribbean. It has a high bias toward strong storms. Doesn't seem to recognize increasing wind shear.

HWRF has performed the best this year with intensity. GFS and especially Euro have a high bias towards weak storms, particularly in the western basin.

HWRF did OK with some storms (those that became hurricanes), but badly with weaker storms (those that didn't become hurricanes or those that were encountering wind shear). It's tracks were the most inconsistent of any model, and its intensity forecasts have a high bias. Be careful trusting it.

[cp79]

But didn’t the HWRF do the best track and intensity wise with Sally? If I remember correctly (and there’s a good chance I don’t! Haha), the HWRF sniffed out track and intensity before any other models. And when it had Sally strengthening up until landfall, we all thought it was out to lunch when it turned out to be correct. If so, I think we can’t discount it completely (although I do agree that conditions seem pretty hostile in the northern gulf right now).

It didn't perform too badly with Sally. Had it moving into SE LA early on with intensity from 70-100 kts. However, it had Gonzalo (storm that dissipated due to strong wind shear as it reached the eastern Caribbean) as a Cat 2 in the eastern Caribbean. It has a high bias toward strong storms. Doesn't seem to recognize increasing wind shear.

HWRF has performed the best this year with intensity. GFS and especially Euro have a high bias towards weak storms, particularly in the western basin.

The HWRF’s not to trust here, though. There is no way possible this storm stays a hurricane with that track. The conditions in the Gulf don’t allow for it. It would need some miracle shear blocking. The Euro and GFS seem to be on top of it, weakening it to a weak TS or TD by the time it gets to La. Only way this thing hits as a powerful cane is if it gets in the Eastern Gulf where shear wont be bad.

[NDG]

But didn’t the HWRF do the best track and intensity wise with Sally? If I remember correctly (and there’s a good chance I don’t! Haha), the HWRF sniffed out track and intensity before any other models. And when it had Sally strengthening up until landfall, we all thought it was out to lunch when it turned out to be correct. If so, I think we can’t discount it completely (although I do agree that conditions seem pretty hostile in the northern gulf right now).

It didn't perform too badly with Sally. Had it moving into SE LA early on with intensity from 70-100 kts. However, it had Gonzalo (storm that dissipated due to strong wind shear as it reached the eastern Caribbean) as a Cat 2 in the eastern Caribbean. It has a high bias toward strong storms. Doesn't seem to recognize increasing wind shear.

The HWRF did the worst with intensity was when dry air was nearby, it did do horrible in the far eastern Caribbean where SAL was very abundant more often than not.