WPAC: SAUDEL - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

TXPQ28 KNES 182129
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 18/2030Z

C. 13.5N

D. 130.2E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. CENTER REPOSITIONED BASED ON MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTING THE CENTER
IS FARTHER NW. 5/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET IS 2.0 AND PT IS
2.5.FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGES IN FT TO 0.5 OVER 6 HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[Hayabusa]

TD
Issued at 01:05 UTC, 19 October 2020

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 19 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N13°20' (13.3°)
E129°25' (129.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 20 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°10' (15.2°)
E124°50' (124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 21 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°30' (15.5°)
E118°55' (118.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 22 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°50' (15.8°)
E115°05' (115.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 23 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°00' (16.0°)
E112°40' (112.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 24 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°20' (16.3°)
E110°10' (110.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 700 km (390 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 800 km (420 NM)

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

Interesting Euro is more south in landfall but the init position is higher latitude than GFS.

[1900hurricane]

https://i.imgur.com/ohKZ184.gif

That's a TC. It would probably be a a rather threatening one if it had a little more time/space over the Philippine Sea.

[1900hurricane]

WP, 19, 2020101900, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1294E, 25, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 240, 60, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, NINETEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, wpE62020 to wp192020,

[Hayabusa]

WP, 19, 2020101900, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1294E, 25, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 240, 60, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, NINETEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, wpE62020 to wp192020,

Straight to warning

[dexterlabio]

If we go by the GFS and Euro model outputs, this renumber happened fast.

[ElectricStorm]

First warning. There have been multiple storms this season that were forecast to become a typhoon in the SCS that haven't been able to. Will this one break that trend?

[doomhaMwx]

First warning. There have been multiple storms this season that were forecast to become a typhoon in the SCS that haven't been able to. Will this one break that trend?
https://i.imgur.com/2MNuL5W.gif

I personally think this really will become one over the SCS and could happen sooner than the JTWC forecast (by TAU 72).

[ElectricStorm]

First warning. There have been multiple storms this season that were forecast to become a typhoon in the SCS that haven't been able to. Will this one break that trend?
https://i.imgur.com/2MNuL5W.gif

I personally think this really will become one over the SCS and could happen sooner than the JTWC forecast (by TAU 72).

Yeah I think it will too

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W
(NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 491 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL
BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES PRESENT IN THE MSI
LOOP AS WELL AS IN A 182207Z SSMIS 37GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KTS,
PGTW, RJTD AND KNES) AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE OF 20-25 KTS IN
SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM A TIMELY 182330Z ASCAT-A PASS. TD 19W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND THROUGH A REGION FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS EVIDENCED BY LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND
ROBUST POLEWARD AND FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 19W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS
IT APPROACHES LUZON, PHILIPPINES. DURING THIS TIME THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO CONTINUED LOW VWS AND WARM SST,
RESULTING IN AN INTENSITY OF 50 KTS BY TAU 36. AT THIS TIME THE
SYSTEM CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER LUZON. AS TD 16W TRACKS OVER
THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF LUZON IT WILL STEADILY WEAKEN TO 40 KTS BEFORE
RETURNING OVER WATER INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. DURING THIS TIME, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
AN EXTENSION OF THE STR.AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY ONCE AGAIN DUE TO CONTINUED WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
SST AND REACH 55 KTS BY TAU 72. THIS INTENSIFICATION WILL BE OFFSET
SLIGHTLY BY MARGINAL VWS WHICH IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS
BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A MAXIMUM 116 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48. THIS TIGHT AGREEMENT
IN MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS INITIAL
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS LAID ON THE JTWC MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY FROM 55 KTS AT TAU 72 TO 65 KTS BY TAU 120 DUE TO
CONTINUED WARM SST THAT WILL REMAIN OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLE VWS WHICH
WILL VARY FROM 20 TO 30 KTS DURING THIS TIME. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK WITH A MAXIMUM
SPREAD IN MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE OF 624 NM AT TAU 120. THE UKMET MODEL
SOLUTION IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER AS IT BRINGS THE TRACK NORTHWARD AFTER
TAU 48. REMOVING THIS SOLUTION RESULTS IN A SPREAD OF 132 NM AT TAU
120. DUE TO THIS OUTLIER, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED JUST
SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE.
//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 190301

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN)

B. 19/0230Z

C. 13.93N

D. 128.61E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
18/2207Z 13.78N 131.02E SSMS


HEINS

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS has this hit Luzon as a TS before bottoming out at 970mb in SCS

[doomhaMwx]

Central convection has really waned today.

Global models show the system maintaining a broad/loose structure until Luzon landfall.

[euro6208]

TXPQ28 KNES 190914
TCSWNP

A. 19W (NONAME)

B. 19/0830Z

C. 14.0N

D. 126.6E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. 4/10
BANDING AROUND LLCC YIELDS DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE AND FT IS BASED
ON MET DUE TO BANDING NOT BEING CLEAR-CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

19/0709Z 13.5N 127.6E SSMIS


...MLEVINE

[Iceresistance]

JWTC Warning #4
JMA has not yet named the system, but it may be named tonight (CDT), PAGASA has named the system 'Pepito'. Here is the JTWC track on 19W:



And Satellite imagery of 19W:



Definitely a very large & broad system.

[ElectricStorm]

JWTC Warning #4
JMA has not yet named the system, but it may be named tonight (CDT), PAGASA has named the system 'Pepito'. Here is the JTWC track on 19W:

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1920.gif

And Satellite imagery of 19W:

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/19W_191800sair.jpg

Definitely a very large & broad system.

Hmm interesting how JTWC no longer forecasts a typhoon out of this despite model guidance. I still think it gets to Cat 1 in the SCS.

[Iceresistance]

JWTC Warning #4
JMA has not yet named the system, but it may be named tonight (CDT), PAGASA has named the system 'Pepito'. Here is the JTWC track on 19W:

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1920.gif

And Satellite imagery of 19W:

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/19W_191800sair.jpg

Definitely a very large & broad system.

Hmm interesting how JTWC no longer forecasts a typhoon out of this despite model guidance. I still think it gets to Cat 1 in the SCS.

The noon GFS model calls for a 100 mph CAT 2 potent typhoon heading for Vietnam.