ATL: ZETA - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#41 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:42 am

gatorcane wrote:
SFLcane wrote:12z models swinging eastward quite a bit.


https://i.postimg.cc/c4nPNNvK/95-L-tracks-12z.png

Literally a huge spread and still none take it to SFL

LMAO..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#42 Postby kevin » Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:49 am

The 12z models have started, first one as always is ICON. Let's see what it does this time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#43 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:49 am

gatorcane wrote:Another look at the short wave over the Rockies the GFS moves quickly east. My hunch is that this system will be an Eastern Gulf threat and not a northern Gulf threat. Climo suggests that also.

https://i.postimg.cc/SKVmzzbY/gfs-z500-mslp-us-fh72-150.gif

I really don't know how to post these, but I think that it depends on how deep the Trough is.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#44 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:09 am

kevin wrote:The 12z models have started, first one as always is ICON. Let's see what it does this time.

I always track the GFS model first, especially when there is winther weather or hurricanes coming
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#45 Postby chris_fit » Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:26 am

Is this the GFS Phantom we've been tracking for weeks coming to life?!?! (Albeit 3-4 days late) or is this a case of a broken clock is right twice a day? :grrr: :grrr:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#46 Postby tomatkins » Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:29 am

chris_fit wrote:Is this the GFS Phantom we've been tracking for weeks coming to life?!?! (Albeit 3-4 days late) or is this a case of a broken clock is right twice a day? :grrr: :grrr:

It is the GFS phantom - look at the GFS from the 16-18 - this is where it thought this storm would be at this point, its just that it had started development further south and east and thus earlier.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#47 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:40 am

If 06z and 12z ICON is right, I'm thinking that someone has placed a cyclone magnet on the northern Gulf Coast. Didn't Josh Morgerman (iCyclone on Twitter) set up a central "base of operations" there this year? Maybe it's his fault.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#48 Postby Blown Away » Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:41 am

Image
First TVCN post...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#49 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:42 am

TVCN likes Crystal River/Homosassa/Cedar Key area.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#50 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:46 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:If 06z and 12z ICON is right, I'm thinking that someone has placed a cyclone magnet on the northern Gulf Coast. Didn't Josh Morgerman (iCyclone on Twitter) set up a central "base of operations" there this year? Maybe it's his fault.


I think it’s highly unlikely this gets as far north as the gulf coast. Image courtesy of stormrider on Twitter.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#51 Postby sunnyday » Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:59 am

Looks like same old, same old. I feel bad for Gulf Coast residents.
The exciting part is the one inch of rain for S Fl!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#52 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:00 am

SFLcane wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:If 06z and 12z ICON is right, I'm thinking that someone has placed a cyclone magnet on the northern Gulf Coast. Didn't Josh Morgerman (iCyclone on Twitter) set up a central "base of operations" there this year? Maybe it's his fault.


I think it’s highly unlikely this gets as far north as the gulf coast. Image courtesy of stormrider on Twitter.

https://i.imgr.com/54jM0E1.jpg


I would have to agree with you. Personally, I feel we are going to see a track very much like Irene in 1999. I did however see that HMON was showing the reverse S out of the Caribbean. I've been thinking since this whole thing started that it could have a track like that, similar to Matthew. It goes to show that those early runs of the GFS and GFS-Para weren't that crazy after all maybe. Time will tell, but many of us may need to apologize to the GFS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#53 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:04 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:If 06z and 12z ICON is right, I'm thinking that someone has placed a cyclone magnet on the northern Gulf Coast. Didn't Josh Morgerman (iCyclone on Twitter) set up a central "base of operations" there this year? Maybe it's his fault.


I think it’s highly unlikely this gets as far north as the gulf coast. Image courtesy of stormrider on Twitter.

https://i.imgr.com/54jM0E1.jpg


I would have to agree with you. Personally, I feel we are going to see a track very much like Irene in 1999. I did however see that HMON was showing the reverse S out of the Caribbean. I've been thinking since this whole thing started that it could have a track like that, similar to Matthew. It goes to show that those early runs of the GFS and GFS-Para weren't that crazy after all maybe. Time will tell, but many of us may need to apologize to the GFS.


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#54 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:14 am

GFS 12z

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#55 Postby Nuno » Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:21 am

SFLcane wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
I think it’s highly unlikely this gets as far north as the gulf coast. Image courtesy of stormrider on Twitter.

https://i.imgr.com/54jM0E1.jpg


I would have to agree with you. Personally, I feel we are going to see a track very much like Irene in 1999. I did however see that HMON was showing the reverse S out of the Caribbean. I've been thinking since this whole thing started that it could have a track like that, similar to Matthew. It goes to show that those early runs of the GFS and GFS-Para weren't that crazy after all maybe. Time will tell, but many of us may need to apologize to the GFS.


https://i.imgur.com/rmA2hyg.jpg


Often forgotten it seems. Vivid memories of standing water puddled all over Blockbuster the day after the storm. Lots of flooding in SFL from 99 Irene
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#56 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:39 am


GFS does not want the system to form, I'm still dealing with icy weather at the same time!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#57 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:41 am

GFS and the CMC both have a similar solution. They both rip the disturbance into two pieces. One piece goes west towards the Yucatan and the other to the NE across South Florida and the Bahamas as a sheared mess.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#58 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:48 am

The GFS doesn't jive with what the satellite shows right now, I'm not sure what to make of it yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#59 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:16 pm

SFLcane wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
I think it’s highly unlikely this gets as far north as the gulf coast. Image courtesy of stormrider on Twitter.

https://i.imgr.com/54jM0E1.jpg


I would have to agree with you. Personally, I feel we are going to see a track very much like Irene in 1999. I did however see that HMON was showing the reverse S out of the Caribbean. I've been thinking since this whole thing started that it could have a track like that, similar to Matthew. It goes to show that those early runs of the GFS and GFS-Para weren't that crazy after all maybe. Time will tell, but many of us may need to apologize to the GFS.


https://i.imgur.com/rmA2hyg.jpg

I hope no Irene 1999 like track is in the cards. Don’t think the East Coast of Florida can handle much more rain, we’re saturated!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#60 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:27 pm

:eek:

HMON:
Image

HWRF:
Image
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