ATL: ZETA - Models

[AutoPenalti]

12z models swinging eastward quite a bit.

https://i.postimg.cc/c4nPNNvK/95-L-tracks-12z.png

Literally a huge spread and still none take it to SFL

LMAO..

[kevin]

The 12z models have started, first one as always is ICON. Let's see what it does this time.

[Iceresistance]

Another look at the short wave over the Rockies the GFS moves quickly east. My hunch is that this system will be an Eastern Gulf threat and not a northern Gulf threat. Climo suggests that also.

https://i.postimg.cc/SKVmzzbY/gfs-z500-mslp-us-fh72-150.gif

I really don't know how to post these, but I think that it depends on how deep the Trough is.

[Iceresistance]

The 12z models have started, first one as always is ICON. Let's see what it does this time.

I always track the GFS model first, especially when there is winther weather or hurricanes coming

[chris_fit]

Is this the GFS Phantom we've been tracking for weeks coming to life?!?! (Albeit 3-4 days late) or is this a case of a broken clock is right twice a day?

[tomatkins]

Is this the GFS Phantom we've been tracking for weeks coming to life?!?! (Albeit 3-4 days late) or is this a case of a broken clock is right twice a day?

It is the GFS phantom - look at the GFS from the 16-18 - this is where it thought this storm would be at this point, its just that it had started development further south and east and thus earlier.

[SouthFLTropics]

If 06z and 12z ICON is right, I'm thinking that someone has placed a cyclone magnet on the northern Gulf Coast. Didn't Josh Morgerman (iCyclone on Twitter) set up a central "base of operations" there this year? Maybe it's his fault.

[Blown Away]

First TVCN post...

[SouthFLTropics]

TVCN likes Crystal River/Homosassa/Cedar Key area.

[SFLcane]

If 06z and 12z ICON is right, I'm thinking that someone has placed a cyclone magnet on the northern Gulf Coast. Didn't Josh Morgerman (iCyclone on Twitter) set up a central "base of operations" there this year? Maybe it's his fault.

I think it’s highly unlikely this gets as far north as the gulf coast. Image courtesy of stormrider on Twitter.

[sunnyday]

Looks like same old, same old. I feel bad for Gulf Coast residents.
The exciting part is the one inch of rain for S Fl!

[SouthFLTropics]

If 06z and 12z ICON is right, I'm thinking that someone has placed a cyclone magnet on the northern Gulf Coast. Didn't Josh Morgerman (iCyclone on Twitter) set up a central "base of operations" there this year? Maybe it's his fault.

I think it’s highly unlikely this gets as far north as the gulf coast. Image courtesy of stormrider on Twitter.

https://i.imgr.com/54jM0E1.jpg

I would have to agree with you. Personally, I feel we are going to see a track very much like Irene in 1999. I did however see that HMON was showing the reverse S out of the Caribbean. I've been thinking since this whole thing started that it could have a track like that, similar to Matthew. It goes to show that those early runs of the GFS and GFS-Para weren't that crazy after all maybe. Time will tell, but many of us may need to apologize to the GFS.

[SFLcane]

If 06z and 12z ICON is right, I'm thinking that someone has placed a cyclone magnet on the northern Gulf Coast. Didn't Josh Morgerman (iCyclone on Twitter) set up a central "base of operations" there this year? Maybe it's his fault.

I think it’s highly unlikely this gets as far north as the gulf coast. Image courtesy of stormrider on Twitter.

https://i.imgr.com/54jM0E1.jpg

I would have to agree with you. Personally, I feel we are going to see a track very much like Irene in 1999. I did however see that HMON was showing the reverse S out of the Caribbean. I've been thinking since this whole thing started that it could have a track like that, similar to Matthew. It goes to show that those early runs of the GFS and GFS-Para weren't that crazy after all maybe. Time will tell, but many of us may need to apologize to the GFS.

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS 12z

[Nuno]

I think it’s highly unlikely this gets as far north as the gulf coast. Image courtesy of stormrider on Twitter.

https://i.imgr.com/54jM0E1.jpg

I would have to agree with you. Personally, I feel we are going to see a track very much like Irene in 1999. I did however see that HMON was showing the reverse S out of the Caribbean. I've been thinking since this whole thing started that it could have a track like that, similar to Matthew. It goes to show that those early runs of the GFS and GFS-Para weren't that crazy after all maybe. Time will tell, but many of us may need to apologize to the GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/rmA2hyg.jpg

Often forgotten it seems. Vivid memories of standing water puddled all over Blockbuster the day after the storm. Lots of flooding in SFL from 99 Irene

[Iceresistance]

GFS 12z

[url]https://i.ibb.co/M7V4X61/Screen-Shot-2020-10-23-at-11-15-03-AM.png [/url]

GFS does not want the system to form, I'm still dealing with icy weather at the same time!

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS and the CMC both have a similar solution. They both rip the disturbance into two pieces. One piece goes west towards the Yucatan and the other to the NE across South Florida and the Bahamas as a sheared mess.

[BobHarlem]

The GFS doesn't jive with what the satellite shows right now, I'm not sure what to make of it yet.

[TheStormExpert]

I think it’s highly unlikely this gets as far north as the gulf coast. Image courtesy of stormrider on Twitter.

https://i.imgr.com/54jM0E1.jpg

I would have to agree with you. Personally, I feel we are going to see a track very much like Irene in 1999. I did however see that HMON was showing the reverse S out of the Caribbean. I've been thinking since this whole thing started that it could have a track like that, similar to Matthew. It goes to show that those early runs of the GFS and GFS-Para weren't that crazy after all maybe. Time will tell, but many of us may need to apologize to the GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/rmA2hyg.jpg

I hope no Irene 1999 like track is in the cards. Don’t think the East Coast of Florida can handle much more rain, we’re saturated!

[gatorcane]

HMON:


HWRF: