ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

The first mission is over but another plane will fly into TS Cristobal departing at 4:45 PM EDT.

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 02/2330Z
B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 02/2045Z
D. 19.5N 93.5W
E. 02/2300Z TO 03/0230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Aric Dunn]

The current trend of lower shear and convection building and wrapping in all quads will undoubtedly lead to this approaching hurricane strength overnight and through tomorrow. assuming it stays over water.

[SouthDadeFish]

Really starting to come together. Even some signs of an inner core forming on visible satellite imagery.

[Yellow Evan]

Honestly the NHC is being too conservative on intensify in the medium and long term given it's development so far, the ECMWF, the SHIPS, and HWRF. I'd be surprised if it didn't become a hurricane before USA landfall the way things are looking right now but it's worth reminding that intensity in the long range can be hard to predict.

[Aric Dunn]

Really starting to come together. Even some signs of an inner core forming on visible satellite imagery.

https://i.imgur.com/Pdbf1aY.gif

In the process of saying the same thing.. I was making a longer radar loop.

Banding is increasing and as you mentioned first signs of an inner core starting too show. and it is in the middle of doing a small organizational cyclonic loop. was moving ese now looks like it turned East. next is NE

[supercane4867]

The first 3 storms of 2020 all look exceptionally good for this time of year. Remember Colin 2016 was a complete mess.

[SunnyThoughts]

Wow, looks pretty robust for a June system. Lets hope it stays minimal for the sake of wherever it makes landfall.

[shiny-pebble]

This really looks like an August/September MDR tropical storm or hurricane. Best looking early season storm in years

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[KimmieLa]

Jeez!! We keep smashing these third earliest Atlantic named storm records! First 2012, then 2016, now 2020.

Every 4 years! Hmmm, interesting.

Movement is SW? I thought it was moving NNE? Any chance of this going right back into Mexico? TIA.

[TheProfessor]

Honestly the NHC is being too conservative on intensify in the medium and long term given it's development so far, the ECMWF, the SHIPS, and HWRF. I'd be surprised if it didn't become a hurricane before USA landfall the way things are looking right now but it's worth reminding that intensity in the long range can be hard to predict.

I think their conservative forecast is fine for now, we still need to wait and see how the short term plays out. In the case that the GFS is right, the last thing NHC wants is to increase it's intensity forecast only for the storm to dissipate over Mexico and a weaker storm forms further east. Once they're certain this storm will be the one to move into the central Gulf and it doesn't drastically weaken they'll probably be more aggressive with their intensity forecast.

[TheStormExpert]

The first 3 storms of 2020 all look exceptionally good for this time of year. Remember Colin 2016 was a complete mess.

Yeah conditions clearly are more favorable than the past two seasons. Remember Subtropical Storm Andrea last May and how hideous and short-lived it was?

[cycloneye]

HIstoric perspective of the third named storm of 2020 season on June 2. Is 62 days ahead of the average of third storm formation. Let that sink in.

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1267870683314270209

[TheStormExpert]

Really starting to come together. Even some signs of an inner core forming on visible satellite imagery.

https://i.imgur.com/Pdbf1aY.gif

The BoC working its magic!

[DestinHurricane]

Almost reminds me of Opal's track out of the BOC except turning west. Track, not intensity.

[Astromanía]

Really starting to come together. Even some signs of an inner core forming on visible satellite imagery.

https://i.imgur.com/Pdbf1aY.gif

Looks so good, it seems it will make landfall in México as a hurricane if this continue. I don't think there have been an hurricane making landfall in the state of Tabasco ever, so it could be the first time, Bad news that state it's one of the most affected by the Coronavirus un Mexico so I don't know how evacuation will take place in order to prevent both problems

[tropicwatch]

Really starting to come together. Even some signs of an inner core forming on visible satellite imagery.

https://i.imgur.com/Pdbf1aY.gif

Is it just me or does it look like this is all Cristobal. Is the CAG still there?

[Aric Dunn]

Really starting to come together. Even some signs of an inner core forming on visible satellite imagery.

https://i.imgur.com/Pdbf1aY.gif

Is it just me or does it look like this is all Cristobal. Is the CAG still there?

The CAG appears long gone since last night.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Gradually organizing.

[cycloneye]

The big question is if is going to make landfall in Mexico or it stays in the water before it begins to move north. Right now is crawling SW.

PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H

[jasons2k]

A local Met, Nathan Moore sent me an update. Sorry I can't repost the images:

Good morning everyone,

Sorry I am a bit late on my update this morning but we definitely have a lot to discuss so let’s get to it.
IR Imagery (click here)

So, as of this writing (around 12pm Central Time), Tropical Depression 3 was just upgraded to Tropical
Storm Cristobal across the Southern Bay of Campeche.
Visible imagery (click here)

If you remember, yesterday, I said there would be a possibility of two systems. It does appear now that
there is only going to be one storm center and this is the one currently across the Southern Bay of
Campeche.

There are a few situations that could play out, however.
Scenario #1
Due to the close proximity to land to Central America, there is the chance that this system could interact
with land, weaken and then potentially dissipate across the mountains of Central America.

Scenario #2
Or the current thinking of the system staying over water, meandering across the Southern Gulf of
Mexico and then moving north and eventually northwest.

Scenario #3
The center of this system could relocate and that would change the thinking of my forecast along with
models. This has occurred in the past and it then changes the complexity of an already complex
situation.

Which situation will play out?
I think scenario 2 will be the main one that plays out the most but there is the chance scenario 1 could
also occur. Right now, I think there is about a 70-80% of #2 being the main event here.

My current thinking
My thinking hasn’t changed too much over the course of the past 24 hours. I think some gradual
strengthening is expected with this system as it roams across the Bay of Campeche. There are very weak
steering currents right now across the Southern Gulf of Mexico. There will be a cold front/trough break
down the ridge across the Southeast United States and begin to bring the system north. There will be
some influence from the trough but if this were later in the year, this would likely push the system north
and east, however, due to the time of year and unlikelihood of the storm not being as influenced, a
north and then northwest turn will be anticipated.
Euro Model (Fri PM)
GFS (American)Model (Fri PM)

If you notice in the above images, the difference in the placement of the cold front (solid blue line). The
European model has the boundary along the coastline while the GFS has the front across the Northern
Gulf of Mexico. My thinking is while many of the fronts lately have made their way further south than
usual, I still think the GFS solution is a little stronger with the front. The European placement of the
boundary is what I think is a little better depiction and while there will be some influence on the system
in the Southern Gulf, I don’t think it will be quite as much as the GFS is showing.
Euro Model (Sun PM)

I AM SHOWING YOU THIS NOT ON WHERE LANDFALL WILL BE BUT TO KIND OF SHOW YOU WHAT IS
HAPPENING ON THIS MODEL.

You will notice the red line I drew on this map, showing after the front dies out, there is a ridge that
begins to build in across the area. This will then push the system further west. How far west, you will see
below on my thoughts.

Forecast/Timeline

Right now, my thinking is potential landfall being between Sunday and Monday evening.
Strength Probabilities at Landfall
Tropical Depression – 100%
Tropical Storm – 100%
Category 1 Hurricane – 60%
Category 2 Hurricane – 20%
Category 3-5 Hurricane – 0%

Landfall locations
Florida coastline – 0%
Biloxi, MS to Mobile, AL – 0%
New Orleans to Morgan City, LA – 5%
Morgan City to Lake Charles, LA – 10%
Lake Charles, LA to Sabine Pass, TX – 25%
Sabine Pass to Galveston, TX – 60%
Galveston to Victoria, TX – 60%
Victoria to Corpus Christi, TX – 30%
Corpus Christi to Brownsville, TX – 10%
Mexico landfall – 0%

So basically what we are looking at now is a pretty high probability of a central to upper Texas coastline
landfall. This could still change but the confidence regarding this forecast is increasing.

Ok, that is all for now. I will be providing once a day updates until this system makes landfall. May be
more often depending on the situation. Again, if you all have any questions, please let me know through
Facebook, Twitter (@Nathan_Weather) or you can email me on here.
Stay safe everyone