ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Ship reports are finding TS winds

[SFLcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/P54h14h2/42820-D43-4-CD7-45-BD-A4-F7-E7418-F22-E61-F.gif

Impressive how much it drops before SFL landfall.

Yep..

[Hypercane_Kyle]

What's going to be important to watch is where 19L emerges off the coast of Florida. If it emerges further south, say over Naples, the chances of a significant hurricane go up IMO.

[Ivanhater]

Keep model runs in the model thread

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm expecting this to roll through the straits.

Think TS by 11:00 PM?

[toad strangler]

I don't see much stopping this one from wrapping up into at least a Cat 1 before final landfall, to be honest.

?? What landfall are you talking about. FL or afterwards? I assume the latter ....

[northjaxpro]

What's going to be important to watch is where 19L emerges off the coast of Florida. If it emerges further south, say over Naples, the chances of a significant hurricane go up IMO.

Yes, I agree. If TD 19/Sally comes off the coast near Naples, it would.have even more additional time over the Gulf and it will be moving over near the Gulf Current Loop in the Southeast GOM where ssts are in the upper 80s.

[SouthFLTropics]

The north and then SW dip over the Everglades reminds me of a certain storm in 2005 that started with the letter K.

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm expecting this to roll through the straits.

Think TS by 11:00 PM?

If the NHC can find something else to confirm that ship report, yeah. I'd be surprised if they jumped on that ship report for the 8pm intermediate.

[storminabox]

down where?

I should of specified. I’m located in Coral Gables at the University of Miami.

Nice... I'm a meteorology major at UM

I’m glad to hear I’m not the only one. What grade are you in? I’m currently in Freshman. Being from Boston, I can’t say I’ve ever had a TC form pretty much right over me before. It’s very fascinating. We’ll see what it brings tonight/tomorrow.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1304564563900272648

[jasons2k]

Future "Sally" is gonna be a nail biter. I'm not liking this center consolidation to the SW. I think this may just clip the peninsula and spend more time over water. That may also make a difference with how much time the storm will have to get caught-up in the trough before the ridge builds back in.

[aspen]

Looking nice on IR, but according to drezee, it's in the middle of some center restructuring and this isn't properly showing where the CoC is.

[ElectricStorm]

Looking nice on IR, but according to drezee, it's in the middle of some center restructuring and this isn't properly showing where the CoC is.
https://i.imgur.com/gBEffEz.png

Is the center relocating to the South? Not good if it does

[jasons2k]

Hmmm, when I zoom-in on this radar, it looks decoupled to me:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

[us89]

Intermediate advisory holds it at 35 mph.

[ScottNAtlanta]

What is distressing is the Hurricane Models have steering breaking down just as this is coming onshore in the Northern GOM. That could dump a tremendous amount of rain in that area

[storminabox]

https://i.postimg.cc/P54h14h2/42820-D43-4-CD7-45-BD-A4-F7-E7418-F22-E61-F.gif

Impressive how much it drops before SFL landfall.

Definitely impressive but not surprising considering how much fuel (boiling waters) this thing has to take advantage of. Very curious to see what it does.

[TheStormExpert]

Pressure where I’m at is currently 1009mb.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1304563596580528129