ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

[KWT]

My guess is we are probably about to head into a period of RI, once that eyewall fully wraps which is clearly happening at the moment. So could be an impressive 24hrs about to come up.

I think the NHC are going to need to show a major hurricane next forecast given pretty much all models are now at least in that ballpark, and some are notably higher as well. Wouldn't be all that surprising to see a 4/5 out of this one.

[pgoss11]

I don’t post too much but this situation warrants a post. Sending prayers to all my family that live in Houston and in Southwest Louisiana and also to my Storm 2k family. This situation looks dire and hoping everyone heeds their local emergency management advice to be safe. Please take this storm seriously.

[sponger]

My guess is we are probably about to head into a period of RI, once that eyewall fully wraps which is clearly happening at the moment. So could be an impressive 24hrs about to come up.

I think the NHC are going to need to show a major hurricane next forecast given pretty much all models are now at least in that ballpark, and some are notably higher as well. Wouldn't be all that surprising to see a 4/5 out of this one.

Agreed. it will show at 11 for sure. Track will most likely move to halfway between Galveston and TX border. Feels like we are watching Wilma or Katrina again.

[cainjamin]

Air Force plane reporting 75-77KT flight level winds. Easily supports 65KT, and could make an argument for 70KT as well.

[KWT]

My guess is we are probably about to head into a period of RI, once that eyewall fully wraps which is clearly happening at the moment. So could be an impressive 24hrs about to come up.

I think the NHC are going to need to show a major hurricane next forecast given pretty much all models are now at least in that ballpark, and some are notably higher as well. Wouldn't be all that surprising to see a 4/5 out of this one.

Agreed. it will show at 11 for sure. Track will most likely move to halfway between Galveston and TX border. Feels like we are watching Wilma or Katrina again.

I have to admit the presentation upto recently really reminded me of a Katrina before it blew up, in that Katrina was also a somewhat lopsided hurricane when it went over Florida. I hope that Laura isn't about to pull out a similar trick over the next 24-36hrs.

Decent FL winds from recon that pass.

[Cyclenall]

I can see that duel lobe of deep convection swirling around the core which is what Rick from '09 featured. A very sharp curl on SSMIS F17 composite.

[Highteeld]

This reminds me a lot of Katrina, but I think the initial eyewall/core will be large enough we don't see an ERC before landfall

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Prayers being lifted for everyone in the path of Laura. Be smart & diligent, and do what you can do to protect yourself, family & friends.

[NDG]

77 knots found so far by the AF recon.

124100 2415N 08514W 6967 03137 0030 +101 -001 133061 061 047 000 00
124130 2414N 08515W 6967 03137 0023 +105 -002 133060 061 046 000 00
124200 2412N 08517W 6967 03133 0016 +108 -003 135062 062 046 000 00
124230 2411N 08518W 6963 03134 0013 +109 -003 134062 062 046 000 00
124300 2410N 08519W 6969 03129 0017 +105 -002 136063 063 047 000 00
124330 2409N 08521W 6963 03134 0022 +100 -001 137065 066 047 000 00
124400 2408N 08522W 6967 03126 0009 +109 +001 137064 066 047 000 00
124430 2406N 08523W 6965 03128 9999 +114 +001 134062 063 049 000 00
124500 2405N 08525W 6970 03121 9997 +116 +001 135062 062 052 001 00
124530 2404N 08526W 6967 03122 0004 +109 +002 135062 062 052 001 00
124600 2403N 08527W 6962 03127 0006 +106 +004 137061 062 053 001 00
124630 2402N 08529W 6970 03116 0000 +109 +006 134062 063 051 000 00
124700 2400N 08530W 6965 03122 0012 +099 +008 132064 067 051 000 00
124730 2359N 08531W 6967 03116 0015 +093 +012 135063 067 055 006 00
124800 2358N 08533W 6967 03112 0026 +081 +015 138072 077 056 008 00
124830 2357N 08534W 6964 03112 0023 +080 +015 142070 076 058 009 00
124900 2356N 08535W 6962 03110 0016 +080 +015 141064 068 058 007 00
124930 2355N 08536W 6972 03094 0007 +085 +013 141057 064 058 007 00
125000 2353N 08538W 6969 03095 9988 +097 +011 138048 053 057 004 00
125030 2352N 08539W 6970 03092 9971 +111 +008 139047 050 057 005 00
$$

[supercane4867]

75kt+ flight level wind reported by the AF plane.

[Buck]

My guess is we are probably about to head into a period of RI, once that eyewall fully wraps which is clearly happening at the moment. So could be an impressive 24hrs about to come up.

I think the NHC are going to need to show a major hurricane next forecast given pretty much all models are now at least in that ballpark, and some are notably higher as well. Wouldn't be all that surprising to see a 4/5 out of this one.

Agreed. it will show at 11 for sure. Track will most likely move to halfway between Galveston and TX border. Feels like we are watching Wilma or Katrina again.

I have to admit the presentation upto recently really reminded me of a Katrina before it blew up, in that Katrina was also a somewhat lopsided hurricane when it went over Florida. I hope that Laura isn't about to pull out a similar trick over the next 24-36hrs.

Decent FL winds from recon that pass.

I’ve been reminded of pre-Florida Katrina as well by the satellite presentation.

[GCANE]

:froze:

Drop 28 & 30
Heavy 40-knot jet ahead at 300 to 400 mb

https://i.imgur.com/GzGerF8.png

https://i.imgur.com/wTYIsCS.png

https://i.imgur.com/EOv9qSA.png

What does this mean for the storm?

Disrupts the thunderstorms.

[aspen]

77kt FL and 58kt SFMR averages out to 67-68kt...maybe enough to bump it up to 70kt?

[St0rmTh0r]

:froze:

Drop 28 & 30
Heavy 40-knot jet ahead at 300 to 400 mb

https://i.imgur.com/GzGerF8.png

https://i.imgur.com/wTYIsCS.png

https://i.imgur.com/EOv9qSA.png

What does this mean for the storm?

Disrupts the thunderstorms.

Nhc didn't mention this yet? Is it suppose to stay or leave?

[supercane4867]

Deep-Layer Wind Shear has decreased to less than 5kts(!) on CIMSS analysis. Still some mid-level shear lingering tho.

[eastcoastFL]

My guess is we are probably about to head into a period of RI, once that eyewall fully wraps which is clearly happening at the moment. So could be an impressive 24hrs about to come up.

I think the NHC are going to need to show a major hurricane next forecast given pretty much all models are now at least in that ballpark, and some are notably higher as well. Wouldn't be all that surprising to see a 4/5 out of this one.

Agreed. it will show at 11 for sure. Track will most likely move to halfway between Galveston and TX border. Feels like we are watching Wilma or Katrina again.

It already has M at landfall since 8am

[NDG]

Unfortunately Gatorcane's bearish forecast a few days ago is not coming to fruition by 100%.
You know the atmosphere is ripe when it tracked right over the two most mountainous Islands in the Caribbean and barely weakened it.
This is definitely not a repeat of the failed 2013 hurricane season forecast.
No doubt the best atmospheric conditions are in the Atlantic this season, once the dust settles down in MDR in early September look out, it could be another 2017 repeat.

[sponger]

If that large Katrina esq eye from the models verifies, Texas is going into full panic mode.

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1298243621137920000