ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Is Laura in range of any radar? I’m kinda surprised that we don’t have radar somewhere that covers the gulf in full

[Highteeld]

https://i.imgur.com/hv5o9IA.jpg

That's as ideal is it gets. put it in a textbook lol

Ideal for me (Houston) for sure - but is this realistic?

To elaborate, I'm referring to the conditions aloft will be ideal for intensification, not Houston itself

[sponger]

Is Laura in range of any radar? I’m kinda surprised that we don’t have radar somewhere that covers the gulf in full

It would be neat to have an airborne radar platform for major threats!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Northern side still being hit by some shear.

[wx98]

Postel on TWC keeps bringing up possible dry air entrainment as something to slow it down. I think he’s trying to find anything he can that might hold it down. There isn’t much...

[eastcoastFL]

Is Laura in range of any radar? I’m kinda surprised that we don’t have radar somewhere that covers the gulf in full

It would be neat to have an airborne radar platform for major threats!

Right? Like why not something like a few AWACS circling the gulf.

[supercane4867]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1298251448673800193

If the LLC gets pulled under the developing MLC we could see more westward shifts in track.

[KWT]

Northern side still being hit by some shear.

https://i.imgur.com/0t7amlb.jpg

This should ease tomorrow, its a very decent set-up anyway as there isn't much in the way of dry air intrusion which is what kills these systems.

Remember, Michael had some mild shear aloft even as it was bombing from a 3 to a 5 towards landfall but due to the nature of the shear and the lack of dry air intrusion it had literally no effect on the core at all other than a slightly lopsided look until towards the end.

[HurricaneEnzo]

With an anti-cyclone overhead and good ventilation I'm not sure if the surrounding dry air will have much of an effect on strengthening. Laura will probably be able to shunt most of it away unless some unexpected shear can force more of the dry air into the core.

[sponger]

Still a few generators left in Houston. So many will regret so bad not getting one now.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Northern side still being hit by some shear.

https://i.imgur.com/0t7amlb.jpg

This should ease tomorrow, its a very decent set-up anyway as there isn't much in the way of dry air intrusion which is what kills these systems.

Remember, Michael had some mild shear aloft even as it was bombing from a 3 to a 5 towards landfall but due to the nature of the shear and the lack of dry air intrusion it had literally no effect on the core at all other than a slightly lopsided look until towards the end.

True, 06z GFS shows ~12 knots of sheer over the storm currently. That's probably causing some dry air entertainment too. Reduces to 8 knots by tomorrow.

[cheezyWXguy]

Northern side still being hit by some shear.

https://i.imgur.com/0t7amlb.jpg

This should ease tomorrow, its a very decent set-up anyway as there isn't much in the way of dry air intrusion which is what kills these systems.

Remember, Michael had some mild shear aloft even as it was bombing from a 3 to a 5 towards landfall but due to the nature of the shear and the lack of dry air intrusion it had literally no effect on the core at all other than a slightly lopsided look until towards the end.

I might be talking out by —-, but wasn’t there something about it’s asymmetrical structure that actually aided in intensification? I feel like I read that...

[Kazmit]

Just like Michael, I don't think Laura will have enough time for an EWRC. I think it will intensify all the way to shore.

[KWT]

True, 06z GFS shows ~12 knots of sheer over the storm currently. That's probably causing some dry air entertainment too. Reduces to 8 knots by tomorrow.

Interestingly someone on twitter (can't remember who though!) said that the air is quite moist upstream according to recon sampling so there really isn't much dry air entrainment happening right now. So its just a little lopsided.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 13:07:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23.49N 86.36W
B. Center Fix Location: 298 statute miles (480 k) to the WSW (256°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.27 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 300° at 9kts (From the WNW at 10mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 76kts (87.5mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the S (187°) of center fix at 12:50:58Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 223° at 51kts (From the SW at 58.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 102 nautical miles (117 statute miles) to the S (180°) of center fix at 12:41:51Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 56kts (64.4mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 45 nautical miles (52 statute miles) to the N (359°) of center fix at 13:18:02Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 106° at 69kts (From the ESE at 79.4mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 52 nautical miles (60 statute miles) to the N (359°) of center fix at 13:19:44Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,449m (8,035ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,447m (8,028ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

[1900hurricane]

I forecasted an 80 kt intensity for 00Z. If we're already at 75 kt, that has some bust potential. However, the max SFMR was also 66 nm south of the center, which is a good ways down there. I think chances are good it might not be representative, but we should find out for sure with more passes.

[wx98]

True, 06z GFS shows ~12 knots of sheer over the storm currently. That's probably causing some dry air entertainment too. Reduces to 8 knots by tomorrow.

Interestingly someone on twitter (can't remember who though!) said that the air is quite moist upstream according to recon sampling so there really isn't much dry air entrainment happening right now. So its just a little lopsided.

Some of the drops from the recon mission well out ahead of Laura (like drops 15-17) indicate very low humidity around the 400-500 mb level. This would mean there is at least some mid-level dry air. But if shear is light and Laura is large (which both of these seem to be the case), then Laura will probably just shrug it off and push it away.

[shiny-pebble]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1298239550070886400

[wxman57]

Was awakened this morning by my teammate (who's off duty now) telling me of the track changes. He's driving his wife & newborn to San Antonio and will be ready to work from there. I was out of the house within 3 minutes racing to Kroger to get my four five-gallon gas cans filled for the generator. I'm sure hoping it goes in east of GLS Bay, but that's not clear. Won't be until tomorrow evening. Note that Laura is going to be very small compared to Ike & Rita. Rita's hurricane-force winds extended out about 85 miles east of the center, Ike's over 100 miles. Laura's may extend out 30-35 miles east of the center and 20-25 miles west of the center. Much smaller wind damage area, but not good near the track line. Looking at 120 mph wind at landfall, maybe more. Moved the track to just west of BPT now, but we are waiting for the 12Z model runs which will have the G-IV data before making any further adjustments west or east.

[3090]

True, 06z GFS shows ~12 knots of sheer over the storm currently. That's probably causing some dry air entertainment too. Reduces to 8 knots by tomorrow.

Interestingly someone on twitter (can't remember who though!) said that the air is quite moist upstream according to recon sampling so there really isn't much dry air entrainment happening right now. So its just a little lopsided.

Some of the drops from the recon mission well out ahead of Laura (like drops 15-17) indicate very low humidity around the 400-500 mb level. This would mean there is at least some mid-level dry air. But if shear is light and Laura is large (which both of these seem to be the case), then Laura will probably just shrug it off and push it away.

As of now I see some southerly shear over the western GOM. I think she will peak out before making landfall. Will there be any surprises before landfall? There always is.