ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[mpic]

This just isn't looking good for the Houston area, no doubt winds over 100mph+ will be involved Houston proper according to last 2 runs of the ECM and to the east look out.

How far inland would those wind strengths hold?

[SoupBone]

This just isn't looking good for the Houston area, no doubt winds over 100mph+ will be involved Houston proper according to last 2 runs of the ECM and to the east look out.

How far inland would those wind strengths hold?

Go look at wxman's post. I think he said 25-30 miles east, if that track were to verify.

[Highteeld]

Looking really messy right now. Wouldn't be surprised if pressure has actually risen from the last recon pass. I'm sure it will correct itself later, but this is good news for long-term intensity trends.

[aspen]

Pretty easy to see the effect of that 350mb 40 knt jet on WV.
Obliterating the whole NW side.

https://i.imgur.com/a7gq2FU.png

Isn’t that supposed to move out of the way sometime today?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1298291309959098373

[tarheelprogrammer]

Storm does appear to be struggling right now, could limit its potential some further down the line. The longer it struggles, the better things will be. They will still be quite bad regardless.

[Dean4Storms]

This just isn't looking good for the Houston area, no doubt winds over 100mph+ will be involved Houston proper according to last 2 runs of the ECM and to the east look out.

How far inland would those wind strengths hold?

That will depend on several factors, the hurricane intensity, how strong the convection remains and how fast the storm is moving. We saw above 100mph gusts with Michael inland some 50 miles here in the Panhandle. Wind over hurricane strength went well into GA.

[SoupBone]

This just isn't looking good for the Houston area, no doubt winds over 100mph+ will be involved Houston proper according to last 2 runs of the ECM and to the east look out.

How far inland would those wind strengths hold?

That will depend on several factors, the hurricane intensity, how strong the convection remains and how fast the storm is moving. We saw above 100mph gusts with Michael inland some 50 miles here in the Panhandle. Wind over hurricane strength went well into GA.

Wxman was very clear that in his professional opinion, this system would be quite small with its windfield, not like Ike or others with much larger wind fields. I have to trust they have some good idea that this is a better than average possibility.

[gfsperpendicular]

I wonder when we'll see the northern outflow channel open up. It's certainly not bad right now but it's nowhere near the south side.

[KWT]

Storm does appear to be struggling right now, could limit its potential some further down the line. The longer it struggles, the better things will be. They will still be quite bad regardless.

Could go either way, a slower development now could mean strengthening into landfall as we've seen in the past.

Anyway looks about where the models expected, most dont take Laura too strong until later this evening/overnight.

[shiny-pebble]

I'm pretty sure this was expected. Most models had gradual strengthening today and then more quick and intense strengthening tonight. It's also passing over that cool eddy.

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[supercane4867]

A temporary halt in the intensification process is not “struggling”. It happens all the time.

[catskillfire51]

This was expected by either marco's cold pool left behind or the light sheer she's encountering, to say she doesn't have time to bomb out isn't completely accurate, harvey made cat 2 and 3 in the same day. Just have to wait and see.

[HurricaneEnzo]

This doesn't really look THAT much worse than earlier. My guess would be it is more or less maintaining instead of weakening.

[jaguars_22]

Is it too late for center reformations? No chance of it reforming south again?

[FixySLN]

Expecting some subtle shifts to the east with the slow-down in intensification.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/PortavozChiapas/status/1298281480767131648



 https://twitter.com/MartinGomezCald/status/1298289911888375808



 https://twitter.com/Welthungerhilfe/status/1298177011177971712



 https://twitter.com/GARREAU75/status/1298162149076893698



 https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1297975740303126529

[FLpanhandle91]

So just over the past 45 minutes or so it is starting to look a tad better. Outflow from the northeastern to southwestern side of the storm are becoming healthy. Additionally, Satellite shows what appears to be a poleward outflow to the north trying to establish itself which will assist in shielding it from mid-level dry air downstream. The direction of the cloud tops (southwest to northeast) in the convective burst on the eastern side leads me to believe that Laura's core has sealed off the dry air entrainment from this morning and is now beginning to display healthy convection as a result.

[ConvergenceZone]

Showing up on RAMMB floater. There is some dry air around particularly over the EGOM and Florida. Hopefully it is enough to keep her from bombing out as well as getting large. She is still relatively small at the moment.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

WV loop showing dry air:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

According to the weather channel, that dry air is so minimal that it’s going to do very little to prevent significant strengthening

[tarheelprogrammer]

The center is almost exposed now, on the NW tip of the convection. Go naked Laura Pleaseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee. That cold pool and the shear must be taking their toll. I hope it keeps it up.