ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Inflow looks really good on visible. I think any impediments are going to be short lived she’s still way ahead of schedule strength wise. Nobody should be letting their guard down

[hurricaneCW]

The center is almost exposed now, on the NW tip of the convection. Go naked Laura Pleaseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee. That cold pool and the shear must be taking their toll. I hope it keeps it up.

She'll be a major by tomorrow.

[Buck]

Seeing the remnant of Marco still there with Laura on her way is fascinating. Marco walked so Laura could run, it seems.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-GM-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif?hash=38287

Edited to remove the live loop link - was slowing down the page. wxman57

[ConvergenceZone]

Storm does appear to be struggling right now, could limit its potential some further down the line. The longer it struggles, the better things will be. They will still be quite bad regardless.

Even if this struggles, I think a Cat 2 is still possible. True that it may keep it from becoming a major, but I still think it will make it over 100mph

[wxman57]

Mesoscale loop at College of DuPage here. Looks less impressive than 4 hours ago.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[hurricaneCW]

The center is almost exposed now, on the NW tip of the convection. Go naked Laura Pleaseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee. That cold pool and the shear must be taking their toll. I hope it keeps it up.

She'll be a major by tomorrow.

Trust me you'd be happier if she was exploding now versus near landfall. The western gulf has been notoriously favorable for tropical systems and that's where she'll really explode.

[TallyTracker]

I’m not seeing further degradation. If anything Laura looks to be stacking up and about to start intensifying. Outflow is beginning to expand in the northeastern quadrant. There is a lack of banding on the north side, but I imagine that will fill in this afternoon.

[b0tzy29]

This thing is going to bomb out tonight... don't let your guard down! Will be a major i think!

[Highteeld]

Mesoscale loop at College of DuPage here. Looks less impressive than 4 hours ago.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

The euro depicted this halt pretty well

[wxman57]

Trivia question (since I have no time to check) - Has Texas ever been hit by an "L" hurricane in August or September? I'd think not. I know Rita hit near the border.

[supercane4867]

It's currently passing over the pronounced cold wake left by Marco.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like a dry slot is hindering any RI, that won’t last long but any hour wasted leaves less time for intensification.

[aspen]

It's currently passing over the pronounced cold wake left by Marco.

https://i.imgur.com/aAWqhi6.jpg

Maybe that’s the source of the drier/more stable air. Either way, Laura will be in progressively higher OHC within 6-12 hours.

[disneymanda]

Curious about how Marco effected Laura’s development and whether or not it will continue to impact her path. I know he is remnants now just wondering if that could feed or diminish Laura. Thanks

PS I am just a weather junkie I have no training/education in meteorology. Thanks again!

[SconnieCane]

It's currently passing over the pronounced cold wake left by Marco.

https://i.imgur.com/aAWqhi6.jpg

Whatever that is, Marco was too small/quick to do that. Had to have been there before Marco.

[Hurrilurker]

No major change is going to happen until that shear lets up. If anything it's looking even more elongated.

[Blinhart]

Seeing the remnant of Marco still there with Laura on her way is fascinating. Marco walked so Laura could run, it seems.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-GM-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif?hash=38287

Edited to remove the live loop link - was slowing down the page. wxman57

This looks very good, looks like what most Cat 1 Hurricanes look like. However you can see many different feeding bands already forming, looking like this system could get large and very dangerous.

[Beef Stew]

A lot of the models that show more pronounced RI start doing so late tonight after 03z, and continue through late tomorrow. Likewise, the NHC only is forecasting 'modest' strengthening (10 mph increase for a total of 85mph sustained) over the next ~10 hours, before doubling that rate (a 20 mph increase to 105mph by 15z tomorrow) overnight. Laura doesn't look fantastic right now (which isn't to say she looks unhealthy by any stretch) due to the slight weakness in her NW region, but she's probably just tabled off for now. While she may not blow up this afternoon/evening, it probably means little if anything in regards to her chances to drastically intensify after the next 10 hours.

[3090]

Mesoscale loop at College of DuPage here. Looks less impressive than 4 hours ago.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Again with most tropical systems there will always be surprises. Some subtle, some bad, some good. While we have advanced in the study of weather, hurricanes seemingly always have unexpected surprises.

So this dry air entrainment is a small but good surprise in this case.

[ConvergenceZone]

Mesoscale loop at College of DuPage here. Looks less impressive than 4 hours ago.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Does this mean the might that it could be downgraded again to a TS? Since only a 5 mph will put it there?