ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Steve]

Still think we will have a better grip on this once its back offshore.

yeah it is entertaining to watch all the models they all are having issues with these short term motions... [b{ so until we have a solid motion we wont get that consensus everyone is looking for. [/b]

right now all we have is a general idea of timing.

Agreed and things could change and probably will. But if you don’t call this a consensus from 5 days out, I don’t know what is. Haha

https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhyd ... rm_display

[cycloneye]

Stronger.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Looking back at the last 4 or 5 days at 12 z positions for the Gfs I would rate it as the poorest among the Gfs, Euro, CMC and Icon. None of them did very well.

I agree tailgater, let’s just all agree that no model has done very well. As gatorcane has been alluding to, all I see happening is just another typical sheared gulf system that will be fighting dry air once it makes it up this way. Will be breezy with a few inches of rain.

[Wx_Warrior]

Euro 12Z...992mb

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1268247025797206016

[Cpv17]

12z Euro shifted slightly west from 0z.

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro landfall @ 988mb

[Jr0d]

Agreed and things could change and probably will. But if you don’t call this a consensus from 5 days out, I don’t know what is. Haha

https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhyd ... rm_display

Normally when the consensus is this tight, I would not question the track. However this time I have great uncertainty on the future track despite the consensus.

I think a track further east is possible, especially if Cristobal moves slower than forecast and catches a trough.

[tailgater]

I can’t post it but 12z Euro total precipitation shows area just west of New Orleans get up to 9 inch’s but most areas much less, largest totals well east near the Big bend area southward towards Tampa

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx/status/1268249417922105345

[Stormcenter]

The models have been saying somewhere between
extreme SE TX to SE LA since last weekend. I don’t
understand
what the issue is with their performance. The consensus
is there right in front of us. The only question is the
ultimate strength if and when he makes landfall.

[Siker]

12z EPS mean is a little stronger and further west with landfall:

[Kingarabian]

The UKMET is the strongest out of the global models. That's probably due to that weird hard left turn it's doing that eventually keeps it over water longer, compared to the other models solutions.

[Aric Dunn]

12z EPS mean is a little stronger and further west with landfall:

https://i.imgur.com/CzuaYfl.png

Took your image.. the little white dot is the current position...

it is going to have a real hard time reaching any of those EPS position.... Unless it stalls and waits for the timing to catch up. because it is already at the edge.

clearly there wont be that much of a south motion over the next 24 hours.. at least not how the Euro shows it..

maybe it will happen shifted east.. who knows..

[Steve]

Agreed and things could change and probably will. But if you don’t call this a consensus from 5 days out, I don’t know what is. Haha

https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhyd ... rm_display

Normally when the consensus is this tight, I would not question the track. However this time I have great uncertainty on the future track despite the consensus.

I think a track further east is possible, especially if Cristobal moves slower than forecast and catches a trough.

That’s why i said they probably will change. And consensus doesn’t mean right. But we have it.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1268303976153350144

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GFS really ramps up the shear and dry continental air as it approaches the northern gulf coast. Convection well displaced to the east of the center.

[TheStormExpert]

The 18Z GFS really ramps up the shear and dry continental air as it approaches the northern gulf coast. Convection well displaced to the east of the center.

https://i.postimg.cc/g29P45hp/gfs-ir-seus-16.png

May not even be tropical at that point, let alone subtropical.

[TheStormExpert]

12z EPS mean is a little stronger and further west with landfall:

https://i.imgur.com/CzuaYfl.png

Stronger? This looks like the weakest cycle yet in DAYS regarding the EPS Ensembles. Majority shoe nothing more than a TS with only a handful reaching Cat.1 hurricane status.

[Aric Dunn]

12z EPS mean is a little stronger and further west with landfall:

https://i.imgur.com/CzuaYfl.png

Stronger? This looks like the weakest cycle yet in DAYS regarding the EPS Ensembles. Majority shoe nothing more than a TS with only a handful reaching Cat.1 hurricane status.

https://i.ibb.co/0svrp1X/2-F6-D9-C94-AAE0-4-FCC-87-F5-1-E437-DC683-AF.png

this is a funny graphic ...

im sure everyone else has notice the west bend then right hook over LA and Texas has been shifting east and closer to the coast as time goes by.. as long as Christobal keeps still and lags behind ... the trough will get closer..

soon enough we will start seeing models and members showing straight NE or NNE motion with no bend wnw