ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Jed]

Really starting to come together. Even some signs of an inner core forming on visible satellite imagery.

https://i.imgur.com/Pdbf1aY.gif

Looks so good, it seems it will make landfall in México as a hurricane if this continue. I don't think there have been an hurricane making landfall in the state of Tabasco ever, so it could be the first time, Bad news that state it's one of the most affected by the Coronavirus un Mexico so I don't know how evacuation will take place in order to prevent both problems

Brenda in 1973 came close I believe

[Aric Dunn]

Low to mid level partial Eyewall forming..

it is also clearly doing a cyclonic loop. moving east now. likelt begin turning NE then stall again..

Next recon might find a 50 to 60kt TS at this point.

still a few hours to go as well.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Really starting to come together. Even some signs of an inner core forming on visible satellite imagery.

https://i.imgur.com/Pdbf1aY.gif

Is it just me or does it look like this is all Cristobal. Is the CAG still there?

I came in here to make a comment about that, i dont see many vortices or many other areas rotating. One thing to note, mind you im an amateur.
The center is strengthening quicker than expected, but the large flank of storms to the east of the center is inhibiting development some near the center. You can kind of see the battle from the outflow of air on the eastern flank. This is a good thing. If this storm is going to be hanging out down there for a few days, we need the storm to stay messy.

[stormlover2013]

One of my best friends Nathan-

A local Met, Nathan Moore sent me an update. Sorry I can't repost the images:

Good morning everyone,

Sorry I am a bit late on my update this morning but we definitely have a lot to discuss so let’s get to it.
IR Imagery (click here)

So, as of this writing (around 12pm Central Time), Tropical Depression 3 was just upgraded to Tropical
Storm Cristobal across the Southern Bay of Campeche.
Visible imagery (click here)

If you remember, yesterday, I said there would be a possibility of two systems. It does appear now that
there is only going to be one storm center and this is the one currently across the Southern Bay of
Campeche.

There are a few situations that could play out, however.
Scenario #1
Due to the close proximity to land to Central America, there is the chance that this system could interact
with land, weaken and then potentially dissipate across the mountains of Central America.
Scenario #2
Or the current thinking of the system staying over water, meandering across the Southern Gulf of
Mexico and then moving north and eventually northwest.
Scenario #3

The center of this system could relocate and that would change the thinking of my forecast along with
models. This has occurred in the past and it then changes the complexity of an already complex
situation.

Which situation will play out?
I think scenario 2 will be the main one that plays out the most but there is the chance scenario 1 could
also occur. Right now, I think there is about a 70-80% of #2 being the main event here.

My current thinking
My thinking hasn’t changed too much over the course of the past 24 hours. I think some gradual
strengthening is expected with this system as it roams across the Bay of Campeche. There are very weak
steering currents right now across the Southern Gulf of Mexico. There will be a cold front/trough break
down the ridge across the Southeast United States and begin to bring the system north. There will be
some influence from the trough but if this were later in the year, this would likely push the system north
and east, however, due to the time of year and unlikelihood of the storm not being as influenced, a
north and then northwest turn will be anticipated.
Euro Model (Fri PM)
GFS (American)Model (Fri PM)

If you notice in the above images, the difference in the placement of the cold front (solid blue line). The
European model has the boundary along the coastline while the GFS has the front across the Northern
Gulf of Mexico. My thinking is while many of the fronts lately have made their way further south than
usual, I still think the GFS solution is a little stronger with the front. The European placement of the
boundary is what I think is a little better depiction and while there will be some influence on the system
in the Southern Gulf, I don’t think it will be quite as much as the GFS is showing.
Euro Model (Sun PM)

I AM SHOWING YOU THIS NOT ON WHERE LANDFALL WILL BE BUT TO KIND OF SHOW YOU WHAT IS
HAPPENING ON THIS MODEL.

You will notice the red line I drew on this map, showing after the front dies out, there is a ridge that
begins to build in across the area. This will then push the system further west. How far west, you will see
below on my thoughts.

Forecast/Timeline

Right now, my thinking is potential landfall being between Sunday and Monday evening.
Strength Probabilities at Landfall
Tropical Depression – 100%
Tropical Storm – 100%
Category 1 Hurricane – 60%
Category 2 Hurricane – 20%
Category 3-5 Hurricane – 0%
Landfall locations
Florida coastline – 0%
Biloxi, MS to Mobile, AL – 0%
New Orleans to Morgan City, LA – 5%
Morgan City to Lake Charles, LA – 10%
Lake Charles, LA to Sabine Pass, TX – 25%
Sabine Pass to Galveston, TX – 60%
Galveston to Victoria, TX – 60%
Victoria to Corpus Christi, TX – 30%
Corpus Christi to Brownsville, TX – 10%
Mexico landfall – 0%

So basically what we are looking at now is a pretty high probability of a central to upper Texas coastline
landfall. This could still change but the confidence regarding this forecast is increasing.
Ok, that is all for now. I will be providing once a day updates until this system makes landfall. May be
more often depending on the situation. Again, if you all have any questions, please let me know through
Facebook, Twitter (@Nathan_Weather) or you can email me on here.
Stay safe everyone

[typhoonty]

Honestly the NHC is being too conservative on intensify in the medium and long term given it's development so far, the ECMWF, the SHIPS, and HWRF. I'd be surprised if it didn't become a hurricane before USA landfall the way things are looking right now but it's worth reminding that intensity in the long range can be hard to predict.

They did this with Dorian too as a compromise between it going in and dying (in which case they would be too aggressive) and the model guidance that keeps it offshore. They did this with Dorian too, keeping it a steady state tropical storm after the islands despite indications that if it got on the other side it would be strengthening. The tepidness of intensity forecasting has mostly to due with the unknown amount of land interaction, imo.

[Steve]

The big question is if is going to make landfall in Mexico or it stays in the water before it begins to move north. Right now is crawling SW.

PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H

Yeah. It’s meandering. I’ve been on the road all
morning and haven’t looked at the 12z models yet, but 00z really didn’t have it lifting out until Friday with several global near the NW tip of the Yucatan @ 90 hours. I know Aric and someone else earlier were talking about it not being on track, but it doesn’t look like it will matter one way or the other how it tracks while it’s spinning down there. Obviously a Mexican landfall could interrupt vertical stacking or cause future stacking issues. But since it won’t probably lift until later (again at least as of last night, so forgive me if I’m behind), it’s likely to be in the same general area whether it circles, meanders or just sits there. Jmo.

[SoupBone]

Honestly the NHC is being too conservative on intensify in the medium and long term given it's development so far, the ECMWF, the SHIPS, and HWRF. I'd be surprised if it didn't become a hurricane before USA landfall the way things are looking right now but it's worth reminding that intensity in the long range can be hard to predict.

I think their conservative forecast is fine for now, we still need to wait and see how the short term plays out. In the case that the GFS is right, the last thing NHC wants is to increase it's intensity forecast only for the storm to dissipate over Mexico and a weaker storm forms further east. Once they're certain this storm will be the one to move into the central Gulf and it doesn't drastically weaken they'll probably be more aggressive with their intensity forecast.

Not only intensity but track adjustments as well.

[psyclone]

Cristobal is living on the edge...of the sea that is. A direct landfall in Mexico sure looks possible...

[galvestontx]

One of my best friends Nathan-

A local Met, Nathan Moore sent me an update. Sorry I can't repost the images:

Good morning everyone,

Sorry I am a bit late on my update this morning but we definitely have a lot to discuss so let’s get to it.
IR Imagery (click here)

So, as of this writing (around 12pm Central Time), Tropical Depression 3 was just upgraded to Tropical
Storm Cristobal across the Southern Bay of Campeche.
Visible imagery (click here)

If you remember, yesterday, I said there would be a possibility of two systems. It does appear now that
there is only going to be one storm center and this is the one currently across the Southern Bay of
Campeche.

There are a few situations that could play out, however.
Scenario #1
Due to the close proximity to land to Central America, there is the chance that this system could interact
with land, weaken and then potentially dissipate across the mountains of Central America.
Scenario #2
Or the current thinking of the system staying over water, meandering across the Southern Gulf of
Mexico and then moving north and eventually northwest.
Scenario #3

The center of this system could relocate and that would change the thinking of my forecast along with
models. This has occurred in the past and it then changes the complexity of an already complex
situation.

Which situation will play out?
I think scenario 2 will be the main one that plays out the most but there is the chance scenario 1 could
also occur. Right now, I think there is about a 70-80% of #2 being the main event here.

My current thinking
My thinking hasn’t changed too much over the course of the past 24 hours. I think some gradual
strengthening is expected with this system as it roams across the Bay of Campeche. There are very weak
steering currents right now across the Southern Gulf of Mexico. There will be a cold front/trough break
down the ridge across the Southeast United States and begin to bring the system north. There will be
some influence from the trough but if this were later in the year, this would likely push the system north
and east, however, due to the time of year and unlikelihood of the storm not being as influenced, a
north and then northwest turn will be anticipated.
Euro Model (Fri PM)
GFS (American)Model (Fri PM)

If you notice in the above images, the difference in the placement of the cold front (solid blue line). The
European model has the boundary along the coastline while the GFS has the front across the Northern
Gulf of Mexico. My thinking is while many of the fronts lately have made their way further south than
usual, I still think the GFS solution is a little stronger with the front. The European placement of the
boundary is what I think is a little better depiction and while there will be some influence on the system
in the Southern Gulf, I don’t think it will be quite as much as the GFS is showing.
Euro Model (Sun PM)

I AM SHOWING YOU THIS NOT ON WHERE LANDFALL WILL BE BUT TO KIND OF SHOW YOU WHAT IS
HAPPENING ON THIS MODEL.

You will notice the red line I drew on this map, showing after the front dies out, there is a ridge that
begins to build in across the area. This will then push the system further west. How far west, you will see
below on my thoughts.

Forecast/Timeline

Right now, my thinking is potential landfall being between Sunday and Monday evening.
Strength Probabilities at Landfall
Tropical Depression – 100%
Tropical Storm – 100%
Category 1 Hurricane – 60%
Category 2 Hurricane – 20%
Category 3-5 Hurricane – 0%
Landfall locations
Florida coastline – 0%
Biloxi, MS to Mobile, AL – 0%
New Orleans to Morgan City, LA – 5%
Morgan City to Lake Charles, LA – 10%
Lake Charles, LA to Sabine Pass, TX – 25%
Sabine Pass to Galveston, TX – 60%
Galveston to Victoria, TX – 60%
Victoria to Corpus Christi, TX – 30%
Corpus Christi to Brownsville, TX – 10%
Mexico landfall – 0%

So basically what we are looking at now is a pretty high probability of a central to upper Texas coastline
landfall. This could still change but the confidence regarding this forecast is increasing.
Ok, that is all for now. I will be providing once a day updates until this system makes landfall. May be
more often depending on the situation. Again, if you all have any questions, please let me know through
Facebook, Twitter (@Nathan_Weather) or you can email me on here.
Stay safe everyone

Thanks for sharing.

[Evil Jeremy]

I've been vaguely following this from afar..... too much real-life stuff going on right now to have really gotten in sync with this system.... But I have been generally following the model trends forecasting this system last week.

My main takeaway right now is that (without doing any digging on how conducive the conditions are in the GOM right now) is that a system that starts spinning up overland, closes off as quickly as it did, and has the satellite presentation as Cristobal does, is a system primed to explode in the Gulf. I see the NHC is forecasting only slow sustained strengthening right now. This system is going to be over water for 5 more days? Again, I'm out of the loop on this system, but the current intensity forecast doesn't feel right to me at all.

[cycloneye]

18z Best track:

Location: 19.2°N 92.7°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM

[Yellow Evan]

Honestly the NHC is being too conservative on intensify in the medium and long term given it's development so far, the ECMWF, the SHIPS, and HWRF. I'd be surprised if it didn't become a hurricane before USA landfall the way things are looking right now but it's worth reminding that intensity in the long range can be hard to predict.

I think their conservative forecast is fine for now, we still need to wait and see how the short term plays out. In the case that the GFS is right, the last thing NHC wants is to increase it's intensity forecast only for the storm to dissipate over Mexico and a weaker storm forms further east. Once they're certain this storm will be the one to move into the central Gulf and it doesn't drastically weaken they'll probably be more aggressive with their intensity forecast.

The GFS has been absolutely garbage with this storm though so I'm not inclined to give it much weight.

[plasticup]

One of my best friends Nathan-

A local Met, Nathan Moore sent me an update. Sorry I can't repost the images:

Good morning everyone,

Sorry I am a bit late on my update this morning but we definitely have a lot to discuss so let’s get to it.
IR Imagery (click here)

So, as of this writing (around 12pm Central Time), Tropical Depression 3 was just upgraded to Tropical
Storm Cristobal across the Southern Bay of Campeche.
Visible imagery (click here)

If you remember, yesterday, I said there would be a possibility of two systems. It does appear now that
there is only going to be one storm center and this is the one currently across the Southern Bay of
Campeche.

There are a few situations that could play out, however.
Scenario #1
Due to the close proximity to land to Central America, there is the chance that this system could interact
with land, weaken and then potentially dissipate across the mountains of Central America.
Scenario #2
Or the current thinking of the system staying over water, meandering across the Southern Gulf of
Mexico and then moving north and eventually northwest.
Scenario #3

The center of this system could relocate and that would change the thinking of my forecast along with
models. This has occurred in the past and it then changes the complexity of an already complex
situation.

Which situation will play out?
I think scenario 2 will be the main one that plays out the most but there is the chance scenario 1 could
also occur. Right now, I think there is about a 70-80% of #2 being the main event here.

My current thinking
My thinking hasn’t changed too much over the course of the past 24 hours. I think some gradual
strengthening is expected with this system as it roams across the Bay of Campeche. There are very weak
steering currents right now across the Southern Gulf of Mexico. There will be a cold front/trough break
down the ridge across the Southeast United States and begin to bring the system north. There will be
some influence from the trough but if this were later in the year, this would likely push the system north
and east, however, due to the time of year and unlikelihood of the storm not being as influenced, a
north and then northwest turn will be anticipated.
Euro Model (Fri PM)
GFS (American)Model (Fri PM)

If you notice in the above images, the difference in the placement of the cold front (solid blue line). The
European model has the boundary along the coastline while the GFS has the front across the Northern
Gulf of Mexico. My thinking is while many of the fronts lately have made their way further south than
usual, I still think the GFS solution is a little stronger with the front. The European placement of the
boundary is what I think is a little better depiction and while there will be some influence on the system
in the Southern Gulf, I don’t think it will be quite as much as the GFS is showing.
Euro Model (Sun PM)

I AM SHOWING YOU THIS NOT ON WHERE LANDFALL WILL BE BUT TO KIND OF SHOW YOU WHAT IS
HAPPENING ON THIS MODEL.

You will notice the red line I drew on this map, showing after the front dies out, there is a ridge that
begins to build in across the area. This will then push the system further west. How far west, you will see
below on my thoughts.

Forecast/Timeline

Right now, my thinking is potential landfall being between Sunday and Monday evening.
Strength Probabilities at Landfall
Tropical Depression – 100%
Tropical Storm – 100%
Category 1 Hurricane – 60%
Category 2 Hurricane – 20%
Category 3-5 Hurricane – 0%
Landfall locations
Florida coastline – 0%
Biloxi, MS to Mobile, AL – 0%
New Orleans to Morgan City, LA – 5%
Morgan City to Lake Charles, LA – 10%
Lake Charles, LA to Sabine Pass, TX – 25%
Sabine Pass to Galveston, TX – 60%
Galveston to Victoria, TX – 60%
Victoria to Corpus Christi, TX – 30%
Corpus Christi to Brownsville, TX – 10%
Mexico landfall – 0%

So basically what we are looking at now is a pretty high probability of a central to upper Texas coastline
landfall. This could still change but the confidence regarding this forecast is increasing.
Ok, that is all for now. I will be providing once a day updates until this system makes landfall. May be
more often depending on the situation. Again, if you all have any questions, please let me know through
Facebook, Twitter (@Nathan_Weather) or you can email me on here.
Stay safe everyone

0% chance of a Florida hit? That's a bold prediction!

[Hurricane Mike]

Outflow and ventilation around Cristobal improving. The biggest factor against significant strengthening is likely Mexico until it pulls further away.

[Nuno]

Could upwelling be an issue in the short term with Cristobal?

[La Breeze]

Could upwelling be an issue in the short term with Cristobal?

That would be good if it would (in my opinion).

[SETXWXLADY]

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 PM EDT Tue Jun 02 2020

Valid 12Z Fri Jun 05 2020 - 12Z Tue Jun 09 2020

By Sun, the upper high is expected to pinch off to the north
of Tropical Storm Cristobal tracking northward across the Gulf.
This could cause a bit of slowing of Cristobal after a slow
beginning in the short range as well. Model clustering is fairly
good with the track of Cristobal toward the western-central Gulf
Coast, but the timing is somewhat uncertain given the upper high
and other factors. The main exception was the 00Z UKMET, which had
a track somewhat east of other guidance.

Tropical moisture is expected to stream into the Gulf coast even
ahead of Cristobal, reaching the vicinity of a frontal zone across
the Southeast and creating the potential for heavy rainfall first
for the central and eastern Gulf Coast into Florida and the
Southeast. Then as Cristobal approaches, heavy rain should focus
more along its track over the Lower Mississippi Valley and eastern
Texas Mon-Tue. Multiple inches of rainfall are expected to
accumulate along the Gulf Coast. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible along the Eastern Seaboard late this week in the vicinity
of frontal boundaries.

I don’t know how to post a picture but on their day 6 graphic looks like about to make landfall mid to west Louisiana Coast.

[TheProfessor]

Low to mid level partial Eyewall forming..

it is also clearly doing a cyclonic loop. moving east now. likelt begin turning NE then stall again..

Next recon might find a 50 to 60kt TS at this point.

still a few hours to go as well.

https://i.ibb.co/k0wW7nK/ezgif-com-gif-maker.gif

Hey Aric, where are you getting the radar data?

[NDG]

Cristobal is becoming impressive on satellite and radar this afternoon.

[Aric Dunn]

I think the Radar might have gone down. has not been an update in 40 min.

here was the last 5 hour loop I made.

low to mid level eyewall is in the process of forming. and can also be seen on visible.

the circ is still rotating easterly with a touch of ene in there now.
Recon may very well find a rapidly intensifying TS.