ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

This thing needs to start gaining latitude or else chances of it running over the Greater Antilles is becoming increasingly likely.

[abajan]

It wouldn't be 2020 without our best models showing no development as observations show an organizing disturbance. Probably not too far off from a TC right now. Aric is correct that the eastern side has gotten better organized, shedding the convergent boundary associated with the monsoon trough. I think this should allow convection to persist in the western vort max we have been tracking.

I don't want to speculate on the forecast track too much until we definitively see where and when a TC forms, but if I lived in the northern Antilles, I would definitely prepare for the potential of TC impacts over the next 3–5 days.

Something to note: as of now, we should have a NOAA P3 flight into 98L sometime tomorrow. Hopefully observations from the plane, including the onboard radar observations, will allow the models to more properly resolve the structure of the disturbance.

Pardon me for asking you to prematurely speculate, but (in your professional opinion) is Barbados in any danger of being hit directly by this?

[Aric Dunn]

Not quite a TC yet. Surface circulation is still too broad and elongated:

https://i.imgur.com/WdmOk3p.jpg

oh man that thing is loaded with ambiguities in the west and SW quad. we just saw this with ASCAT and Josephine where the NHC upgraded despite the SCAT not showing a well defiend circ do to those ambiguities.

that entire west and SW is obviously not correct lol that is the best looking low level structure on satellite. lol

You just totally confused me here.

Lets just say ASCAT is very confused with the West and SW quads. happened with couple systems this year. that were well established.

[toad strangler]

Ok I will concede some on the shear but the dry air is very much a problem. You can see it in the visible shot:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

There really isn't much dry air in the vicinity of 98L. SAL is mostly to the N

https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weath ... e_Water-WX
https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weath ... an_Dust-WX

[chaser1]

It wouldn't be 2020 without our best models showing no development as observations show an organizing disturbance. Probably not too far off from a TC right now. Aric is correct that the eastern side has gotten better organized, shedding the convergent boundary associated with the monsoon trough. I think this should allow convection to persist in the western vort max we have been tracking.

I don't want to speculate on the forecast track too much until we definitively see where and when a TC forms, but if I lived in the northern Antilles, I would definitely prepare for the potential of TC impacts over the next 3–5 days.

Something to note: as of now, we should have a NOAA P3 flight into 98L sometime tomorrow. Hopefully observations from the plane, including the onboard radar observations, will allow the models to more properly resolve the structure of the disturbance.

Pardon me for asking you to prematurely speculate, but (in your professional opinion) is Barbados in any danger of being hit directly by this?

Abajan, purely my own opinion here however I don't see 98L having a serious impact to Barbados. Assuming greater structural development of a mean COC, this should increase the likelihood of a gain of latitude during the next 36 hours. SST's markedly increase with longitude gained and it would be hard to imagine this system defying NHC forecast for development within the short term period of time. Seems to me that Guadeloupe to Barbuda might have the greatest risk of direct impact at this time.

[toad strangler]

The main inhibiting factor here will be the real possibility of taking the GA's on head first and E to W.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1296088721112969216

[chaser1]

Ok I will concede some on the shear but the dry air is very much a problem. You can see it in the visible shot:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

There really isn't much dry air in the vicinity of 98L. SAL is mostly to the N

https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weath ... e_Water-WX
https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weath ... an_Dust-WX

I tend to agree with Gatorcane in that there still might be some mid level humidity issues still going on. Water Vapor sat does generally suggest that the really salty stuff does remain primarily to it's north but I think that the MDR is still generally working out some SAL within some levels. I think a bit of added SST juice might aid to further increase 98's convective bursting by this time tomm. My guess is tomm will be an interesting day developmental wise, with a better indication if/when such organization will result in a greater gain in latitude.

[toad strangler]

Ok I will concede some on the shear but the dry air is very much a problem. You can see it in the visible shot:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

There really isn't much dry air in the vicinity of 98L. SAL is mostly to the N

https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weath ... e_Water-WX
https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weath ... an_Dust-WX

I tend to agree with Gatorcane in that there still might be some mid level humidity issues still going on. Water Vapor sat does generally suggest that the really salty stuff does remain primarily to it's north but I think that the MDR is still generally working out some SAL within some levels. I think a bit of added SST juice might aid to further increase 98's convective bursting by this time tomm. My guess is tomm will be an interesting day developmental wise, with a better indication if/when such organization will result in a greater gain in latitude.

Well I guess we just have to disagree. I don't think dry air as anything to do with the wave not organizing. Other factors. Levi just tweeted a big one.

[DestinHurricane]

I wounder if the NHC will start to lower those development chances with the reliable models being in a good consensus that nothing will come out of this.

[Weatherboy1]

I definitely get a “Georges in 1998” vibe with this one. Anything can happen of course. But setup/forecast track looks pretty similar as of now

[DestinHurricane]

I definitely get a “Georges in 1998” vibe with this one. Anything can happen of course. But setup/forecast track looks pretty similar as of now

Georges? No way this gets that far west. At this point a recuve is more likely than MS/AL/Western Panhandle.

[aspen]

I wounder if the NHC will start to lower those development chances with the reliable models being in a good consensus that nothing will come out of this.

Reliable models also had a good consensus that nothing much would come out of Hanna. Then it became an 80 kt hurricane.

Point is, the models have been less than reliable this year, and things in the Atlantic love to develop without much support. I wouldn’t write this one off just yet.

[eastcoastFL]

I wounder if the NHC will start to lower those development chances with the reliable models being in a good consensus that nothing will come out of this.

“Reliable models”... I don’t know if that’s a thing right now.

[DestinHurricane]

I don't think i've ever in my life seen the GFS/Euro show nothing while the NHC says 90/90.

[eastcoastFL]

IR doesn’t look great but on visible it really looks like it’s getting together

[eastcoastFL]

I don't think i've ever in my life seen the GFS/Euro show nothing while the NHC says 90/90.

I’ve never seen it. I’ll lean towards the NHC Over any models though. That’s for sure.

[Blown Away]

Convection building over circulation center @12.8N/45W... Let's see if it persists...

[SouthDadeFish]

It wouldn't be 2020 without our best models showing no development as observations show an organizing disturbance. Probably not too far off from a TC right now. Aric is correct that the eastern side has gotten better organized, shedding the convergent boundary associated with the monsoon trough. I think this should allow convection to persist in the western vort max we have been tracking.

I don't want to speculate on the forecast track too much until we definitively see where and when a TC forms, but if I lived in the northern Antilles, I would definitely prepare for the potential of TC impacts over the next 3–5 days.

Something to note: as of now, we should have a NOAA P3 flight into 98L sometime tomorrow. Hopefully observations from the plane, including the onboard radar observations, will allow the models to more properly resolve the structure of the disturbance.

Pardon me for asking you to prematurely speculate, but (in your professional opinion) is Barbados in any danger of being hit directly by this?

Of course you should first listen to NHC/your local officials, but in my opinion, that looks quite unlikely at this time. The island could get some squally weather from some outer bands of the disturbance.

[chaser1]

There really isn't much dry air in the vicinity of 98L. SAL is mostly to the N

https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weath ... e_Water-WX
https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weath ... an_Dust-WX

I tend to agree with Gatorcane in that there still might be some mid level humidity issues still going on. Water Vapor sat does generally suggest that the really salty stuff does remain primarily to it's north but I think that the MDR is still generally working out some SAL within some levels. I think a bit of added SST juice might aid to further increase 98's convective bursting by this time tomm. My guess is tomm will be an interesting day developmental wise, with a better indication if/when such organization will result in a greater gain in latitude.

Well I guess we just have to disagree. I don't think dry air as anything to do with the wave not organizing. Other factors. Levi just tweeted a big one.

Point taken. The easterly surge resulting in any LLC to lag behind certainly isn't helping it's short term development process. Satellite presentation does to at least suggest a more consolidated envelope but I'd be surprised to see this reflect in that much improvement of it's lower level convergence today. Either way, perhaps the models are "out-guessing" NHC by retarding development or at least delaying it. This makes sense when we see models with a bit more south track solution through the big islands rather then to the north of them.