ATL: PAULETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

15/1730 UTC 38.4N 56.7W T4.5/5.0 PAULETTE -- Atlantic

[ClarCari]

Whatever happens from here on out, Paulette wayyyyyy over performed. Last week she was supposed to weaken to 40mph and maybe restrengthen to a strong tropical storm by Bermuda. Instead she held her own and then strengthened to a Cat.2 after making a perfect landfall over the Tiny Target of Bermuda. Paulette was a class all her own, and I hope the effects on Bermuda were minimal.

[aspen]

And down to 85 kt. Boooo.

[TheStormExpert]

Yep, definitely smoke from the California wildfires getting indigested into Paulette.

https://i.ibb.co/93mbbdM/g16wvmid.jpg

Just curious - how do you know it's the smoke? I don't see any sort of dry air entrainment on satellite.

 https://twitter.com/weathergeeks/status/1305955545673691137

[AnnularCane]

Apparently that smoke made its way over to me too! It's been cloudy to mostly cloudy all day though, so it's hard to notice much right now.

I don't see it mentioned in the discussion, but is there still a chance Paulette could eventually become tropical again?

[CrazyC83]

:uarrow: Apparently that smoke made its way over to me too! It's been cloudy to mostly cloudy all day though, so it's hard to notice much right now.

I don't see it mentioned in the discussion, but is there still a chance Paulette could eventually become tropical again?

I wouldn't count it out. I think the NHC will need to keep it on the discussions even after becoming post-tropical. After all, it will be dropping in latitude over warmer water.

[aspen]

The 18z GFS has Paulette tighten up and restrengthen into a TS by 120 hours...then it goes the extra mile and keeps it around for like a week, sending it south before turning west and becoming a hurricane again.

[Chris90]

It would be so very interesting if Paulette not only managed to come back around, intensify back into a hurricane, but also make it all the way to major, verifying those forecasts.... just doing it days later.

I think a scenario like that could earn Paulette "most interesting to track" for the ATL 2020.

[Spacecoast]

GFS keeps this cyclone active past Oct 1st.
Could break one of these records...


Longest duration (non consecutive): "San Ciriaco" 28 days - 1899


Longest duration (consecutive): Ginger 27.25 days - 1971

[ClarCari]

GFS keeps this cyclone active past Oct 1st.
Could break one of these records...


Longest duration (non consecutive): "San Ciriaco" 28 days - 1899
https://i.ibb.co/9Z0DjFy/250px-1899-San-Ciriaco-hurricane-track.png

Longest duration (consecutive): Ginger 27.25 days - 1971
https://i.ibb.co/7XMqCxr/220px-Ginger-1971-track.png

Could certainly be possible! Extratropical transition could be short lived.

This will also be a more fun kind of interesting track to watch unlike Our Dear Aunt Sally over here

[Kazmit]

GFS keeps this cyclone active past Oct 1st.
Could break one of these records...


Longest duration (non consecutive): "San Ciriaco" 28 days - 1899
https://i.ibb.co/9Z0DjFy/250px-1899-San-Ciriaco-hurricane-track.png

Longest duration (consecutive): Ginger 27.25 days - 1971
https://i.ibb.co/7XMqCxr/220px-Ginger-1971-track.png

Lol the non-consecutive and consecutive records are pretty much the same.

[storminabox]

Whatever happens from here on out, Paulette wayyyyyy over performed. Last week she was supposed to weaken to 40mph and maybe restrengthen to a strong tropical storm by Bermuda. Instead she held her own and then strengthened to a Cat.2 after making a perfect landfall over the Tiny Target of Bermuda. Paulette was a class all her own, and I hope the effects on Bermuda were minimal.

I agree for sure. The fact that it got as far as it did, after having such a rough couple of days is notable. I just wish it would've taken that extra step and become a major (it wouldn't of taken much). In the grand scheme of things, however, the difference between a 90kt storm and 100kt one is very small.

[CyclonicFury]

NHC now mentioning potential for regeneration.

There is some chance that
Paulette could regain tropical or subtropical characteristics
toward the end of the forecast period when it is expected to move
back over warmer waters.

[us89]

NHC now mentioning potential for regeneration.

There is some chance that
Paulette could regain tropical or subtropical characteristics
toward the end of the forecast period when it is expected to move
back over warmer waters.

I wish Paulette could merge with something else and then have that storm gain tropical characteristics - then we'd get further into Greek letter territory.

[CrazyC83]

NHC now mentioning potential for regeneration.

There is some chance that
Paulette could regain tropical or subtropical characteristics
toward the end of the forecast period when it is expected to move
back over warmer waters.

I wish Paulette could merge with something else and then have that storm gain tropical characteristics - then we'd get further into Greek letter territory.

Not going to happen. It would still be named Paulette.

[supercane4867]

The chance of regeneration near the Azores is looking increasingly likely

[Kazmit]

Even though it didn't make it to a major it's still very impressive that it's a cat 2 in this location.

[supercane4867]

06z HWRF end of the run showing a decent TS

[tomatkins]

NHC now mentioning potential for regeneration.

There is some chance that
Paulette could regain tropical or subtropical characteristics
toward the end of the forecast period when it is expected to move
back over warmer waters.

I wish Paulette could merge with something else and then have that storm gain tropical characteristics - then we'd get further into Greek letter territory.

Not going to happen. It would still be named Paulette.

Depends. The unnamed tropical storm in 2005 merged with a frontal low, which then spit out a new low, which became Vince.

I don't think that will happen in this case, Paulette is forecast to remain on its own.

[gfsperpendicular]

This will almost certainly be mentioned on the 2pm TWO, meaning that we'd have 2 AOIs north of 40N