ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[shiny-pebble]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1298301871908691968

[Highteeld]

Mesoscale loop at College of DuPage here. Looks less impressive than 4 hours ago.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Does this mean the might that it could be downgraded again to a TS? Since only a 5 mph will put it there?

Doubt it. that would create a lot of confusion in terms of messaging the storm to the public

[3090]

No major change is going to happen until that shear lets up. If anything it's looking even more elongated.

And continues to look elongated SE to NW.

[crimi481]

Marco and Laura connection. Laura appears to be sheared on nw side. Could steer her more north? Hard to know

[SconnieCane]

Mesoscale loop at College of DuPage here. Looks less impressive than 4 hours ago.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Does this mean the might that it could be downgraded again to a TS? Since only a 5 mph will put it there?

Doubt it. that would create a lot of confusion in terms of messaging the storm to the public

Even if it briefly weakened to a high-end TS, it would probably be back up to a hurricane in time for the next advisory package.

[Blinhart]

A lot of the models that show more pronounced RI start doing so late tonight after 03z, and continue through late tomorrow. Likewise, the NHC only is forecasting 'modest' strengthening (10 mph increase for a total of 85mph sustained) over the next ~10 hours, before doubling that rate (a 20 mph increase to 105mph by 15z tomorrow) overnight. Laura doesn't look fantastic right now (which isn't to say she looks unhealthy by any stretch) due to the slight weakness in her NW region, but she's probably just tabled off for now. While she may not blow up this afternoon/evening, it probably means little if anything in regards to her chances to drastically intensify after the next 10 hours.

I still unfortunately expect this to get to high Cat 4 if not Cat 5 before starting to slowly going down in strength right before landfall in between Sabine Pass and Grand Chenier, La.

[GCANE]

It's currently passing over the pronounced cold wake left by Marco.

https://i.imgur.com/aAWqhi6.jpg

Confirms that Theta-E in the core has dropped along with CAPE.

[LSU Saint]

A lot of the models that show more pronounced RI start doing so late tonight after 03z, and continue through late tomorrow. Likewise, the NHC only is forecasting 'modest' strengthening (10 mph increase for a total of 85mph sustained) over the next ~10 hours, before doubling that rate (a 20 mph increase to 105mph by 15z tomorrow) overnight. Laura doesn't look fantastic right now (which isn't to say she looks unhealthy by any stretch) due to the slight weakness in her NW region, but she's probably just tabled off for now. While she may not blow up this afternoon/evening, it probably means little if anything in regards to her chances to drastically intensify after the next 10 hours.

I still unfortunately expect this to get to high Cat 4 if not Cat 5 before starting to slowly going down in strength right before landfall in between Sabine Pass and Grand Chenier, La.

Wouldn’t a Cat 4 or 5 push the storm west?

[zhukm29]

Higher stability air is wrapping around right now, which could reduce significant intensification in the short term (the next few hours). Once that is mixed out, we could see faster RI. Luckily, this means that Laura will have less time to take advantage of perfect conditions - I'd estimate a C3 or low C4 at landfall. Anything higher is still possible (but looking less likely with this short pause in intensification), since it would require a herculean bout of RI. Luckily, C5 is looking unlikely now. (That being said, storms have done this before, so it is still important to be vigilant).

[GCANE]

Pretty easy to see the effect of that 350mb 40 knt jet on WV.
Obliterating the whole NW side.

https://i.imgur.com/a7gq2FU.png

Isn’t that supposed to move out of the way sometime today?

Looking at GFS, it hangs around a good 24 hrs with some minor weakening.
Mid-level dry air to NW of CoC pretty much all the way to just landfall.

[LSU2001]

Mesoscale loop at College of DuPage here. Looks less impressive than 4 hours ago.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Does this mean the might that it could be downgraded again to a TS? Since only a 5 mph will put it there?

I know you were asking wxman57 but I will give you my take anyway LOL.

First and foremost my thoughts and prayers go out to anyone in the path of Laura. If the current forecast verifies then I will be on the far eastern side of the storm. I live about 25-30 miles north of Port Fourchon in SE Louisiana and I am only expecting some tropical storm winds and maybe a few gust around 50 mph. My answer to your question is that I cannot see anything currently that would indicate any weakening. I think she may be simply maintaining right now with a few somewhat minor atmospheric challenges (sheer, cool water pool, and a bit of dry air entrainment. Once these factors wash out as forecast, I see very little to hinder her intensification going all the way to landfall.

The above is my opinion only and I have no training in weather other than what I have managed to learn over my almost 40 years of tracking storms and reading and listening to experts in the field. Nothing I say should be considered as any type of forecast.

[Frank P]

Been watching the vis sat loops, she sure does look like it's hinting perhaps a little more northerly component, not sure if its a illusion or not... any latest RECON data to show actual location? wondering if the massive convection building up to the north and east is tugging on the LLC?

[wx98]

A lot of the models that show more pronounced RI start doing so late tonight after 03z, and continue through late tomorrow. Likewise, the NHC only is forecasting 'modest' strengthening (10 mph increase for a total of 85mph sustained) over the next ~10 hours, before doubling that rate (a 20 mph increase to 105mph by 15z tomorrow) overnight. Laura doesn't look fantastic right now (which isn't to say she looks unhealthy by any stretch) due to the slight weakness in her NW region, but she's probably just tabled off for now. While she may not blow up this afternoon/evening, it probably means little if anything in regards to her chances to drastically intensify after the next 10 hours.

I still unfortunately expect this to get to high Cat 4 if not Cat 5 before starting to slowly going down in strength right before landfall in between Sabine Pass and Grand Chenier, La.

I don’t see it. Low to mid Cat 4 is definitely possible, but I wouldn’t expect a Category 5.

[Stormcenter]

Yes this is very obvious on sat. loop.

Been watching the vis sat loops, she sure does look like it's hinting perhaps a little more northerly component, not sure if its a illusion or not... any latest RECON data to show actual location? wondering if the massive convection building up to the north and east is tugging on the LLC?

[cheezyWXguy]

I don’t think it’s going to look like this much longer, there are some subtle hints on visible this has bottomed out. For one, outflow is improving in all quadrants, even on the west side, if only gradually. Second, the area where the southern eyewall should be is starting to fill in a little bit. There was some weird vort on the nw side as well that seems to have largely dissipated.

[Steve]

wxman, I only glanced, but I'm not sure that Texas has ever even been hit by an L hurricane? The research goes back to the 1520's, so I'm sure the 12th storm hit there at some point before they named. List starts page 8.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/txhur.pdf

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Our top local ( Mobile, AL ) meteorologist who has been tracking storms for over 40 years is calling for a 3-4 hitting basically in Houston on Thursday morning. Granted many more areas will be affected, but as for landfall this is his forecast. He did also say one good thing is that this storm will keep moving. Doesn't see much if any slowdown.

[1900hurricane]

Low and mid-level centers appear to be in the process of stacking better on visible imagery. Low level clouds are rushing into the curved band structure, which itself looks to be better coiling around the center. Conditions aren't perfect as of yet, but organization is taking place.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/TheAstroNick/status/1298300974390370304

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Organizational hiccups were not unexpected. I don't see evidence of a nearly exposed LLC like some were suggesting a few pages back.

Little, if any strengthening, should be expected today. Most models show the mid-level shear beginning to lessen tomorrow, which is when we can expect more earnest intensification.

In my amateur opinion, I think it'll peak at 110 knots and weaken to around 105-100 knots before landfall.