ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

When is the next recon flight expected to take off?

[Highteeld]

The spiral banding around the LLC looks more complete than it did an hour ago. Pressure probably falling, around 985-986 if i had to guess.

[jlauderdal]

Time for model runs! I would give a fiver to take a peak at this afternoon's FSU ensemble! This is the time where the track really firms up and this 5pm update is the most critical since Michael and Dorian.

we know where its going...less than 75 miles either side of the NHC line...getting in the time frame where NHC is superior to the models, they can fine tune far better than nay model at this range

Ah but the problem is that 75 miles makes an enormous difference in the size of the population potentially impacted, and the logistics of evacuations that goes along with that.

Thats correct which is why anyone in a watch/warning area needs to take the recommended action from localofficials, only the seasoned "professional" should go off the script and do their own thing especially in a major which this one will be

[WmE]

Looks like a banding eye is forming. That would make it T4.0 or T4.5 right?

[supercane4867]

Looks like a banding eye is forming. That would make it T4.0 or T4.5 right?

SAB is still at T3.5 for 18z

[jconsor]

Tomorrow (especially afternoon onward) is most likely timeframe when we see rapid intensification begin for Laura.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1298322158213627908

[Hurrilurker]

So the "perfect" environment that was supposed to be there doesn't look so perfect after all. Laura is battling cooler SSTs, dry air, and shear all at the same time.

[tolakram]

[wx98]

So the "perfect" environment that was supposed to be there doesn't look so perfect after all. Laura is battling cooler SSTs, dry air, and shear all at the same time.

Shear and SST are not really much of a factor. The SST/OHC/TCHP are more than sufficient. Shear is lessening as we speak.

[tiger_deF]

So the "perfect" environment that was supposed to be there doesn't look so perfect after all. Laura is battling cooler SSTs, dry air, and shear all at the same time.

To be fair a cool eddy 28 C waters and 12 kt of shear over the center isn't going to seriously impede strengthening. Dry air is present but it doesn't seem to be entrained

[wx98]

When is the next recon flight expected to take off?

AF plane takes off at 3:30 CDT and NOAA goes at 4 CDT.

[wx98]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 AUG 2020 Time : 175020 UTC
Lat : 24:14:23 N Lon : 87:28:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 989.4mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.6 3.7

Center Temp : -59.1C Cloud Region Temp : -66.1C

[Evan_Wilson]

I’ve been seeing some chatter about possible interaction between Laura and the Jet Stream this weekend making for some very strong winds inland into the South East. Definitely something to keep an eye on.

[Buck]

For everyone implying that because Laura hasn't started to undergo a RI phase and calling for landfall intensity (and location) estimates to be adjusted, remember that Wilma went from 70 mph to 175 mph in exactly 24 hours not far from here and Laura still has ~36 hours before striking the coast. Not saying we will see a repeat in terms of rapid intensification, but this is essentially the same as "wobble watching" but for intensity instead.

[jasons2k]

And also on the MIMIC the classic "fist" formed and will wrap and as it has it can picked up moisture feeding from Epac and Marco remnants also the frontal boundary. As the outflow is also improving, we will likely see an full grown hurricane on the way to major by late tonight. Gosh I hope from Galveston to LA you all are ready.

https://tinyurl.com/y2sffhy2

I see - the “fist” has made its appearance. We usually see this in the overnight hours, not heading into DMIN. She seems well on her way to building the pieces to allow RI as we get into tonight & tomorrow.

[Buck]

So the "perfect" environment that was supposed to be there doesn't look so perfect after all. Laura is battling cooler SSTs, dry air, and shear all at the same time.

So many posts like this and they are all speaking too soon.

[aspen]

When is the next recon flight expected to take off?

AF plane takes off at 3:30 CDT and NOAA goes at 4 CDT.

So the AF plane should be taking off pretty soon.

[catskillfire51]

When is the next recon flight expected to take off?

AF plane takes off at 3:30 CDT and NOAA goes at 4 CDT.

So the AF plane should be taking off pretty soon.

in 2 hours

[tailgater]

A more northerly motion is possibly an optical illusion caused by a decrease in shear from the north which is allowing it to pull convection northwards and westwards where it had been previously weak. Also this is backed by better outflow being evident now on the northern side.

Would be good to see what the inner core is doing.

The last 6 hrs. Has seen it move more NW than WNW according to the NHC points but it is probably is just reacting to the deeper convection rotating around the center

[ronyan]

This is just a casual observation (and may not be correct) but doesn't it seem like we've had a relative lack of the large sized systems in the last several years? Seems like everything now has these small tight cores. Is there any knowledge about what causes to be large/small in the basin and the related factors?