ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

I thought the post overall was pretty decent, and I know it's just that guy's idea, but I'd edit accordingly:

Florida coastline – 0%
Biloxi, MS to Mobile, AL – 0%
New Orleans to Morgan City, LA – 5%
Morgan City to Lake Charles, LA – 10%
Lake Charles, LA to Sabine Pass, TX – 25%

FL Coastline 10%

Mobile to Biloxi - 12% (not sure what he did with Baldwin County as Mobile is in SWAL whereas you have all of the other side of the Bay and the 225,000 people who live there.

Biloxi to New Orleans - 20% (again, there's a gap from everything west of Mobile in Alabama and all of Jackson County, Mississippi (which is another 145,000 people)

New Orleans to Morgan City - 30%

Morgan City to LA/Texas Border - 50%

LA/TX Border to Galveston - 50%

Below Galveston - 35%

This isn't really based on anything, but there were some gaps and I think he's underplaying some of the fringe areas that could get hit. We're several days out, but it looks to be a Vermilion Bay to Galveston Bay type of storm with feeder rains to the east.

[GCANE]

Big-Ass Tower firing on the coast.
Sparks a fly'n.

[northjaxpro]

I lnow there is skepticism among some of you about the GFS, but the latest satellite and radar imagery I am observing shows the CoC drifting very slowly SW. The 12Z HFS earlier today has the CoC coming ashore the MX coast sometime between 03Z- 06Z early tomorrow morning.

So I wilĺ be watching very closely to see if this happens. It is going to be a very close. It is just barely off the voast even right now.

[BYG Jacob]

I think people need to disabuse their preconceived notions of this system. I’m seeing a lot (some on here, but certainly on places like twitter and reddit) that this will be the typical early June slop fest, and that currently couldn’t be further from the truth. Cristobal is currently rapidly organizing and will be ready to take full advantage of the conditions in the central and northern GoM. The only thing that could currently limit his intensity is land interaction. Be very weary if this storm

[Shell Mound]

Could upwelling be an issue in the short term with Cristobal?

Given the small size of the inner core, upwelling is less likely to be an issue than with a larger system.

[Aric Dunn]

Low to mid level partial Eyewall forming..

it is also clearly doing a cyclonic loop. moving east now. likelt begin turning NE then stall again..

Next recon might find a 50 to 60kt TS at this point.

still a few hours to go as well.

https://i.ibb.co/k0wW7nK/ezgif-com-gif-maker.gif

Hey Aric, where are you getting the radar data?

From the Mexico weather service site. i am saving each frame and making my own GIFs.

the radar appears to have gone down.. no more updates in the last hour.

here is the last loop. clearly heading east to ene...

and proto eyewall in progress.

[Aric Dunn]

And shear continues to drop... with the Upper high still sliding northward nearly centered over our storm..

[TallyTracker]

Could upwelling be an issue in the short term with Cristobal?

Given the small size of the inner core, upwelling is less likely to be an issue than with a larger system.

Also upwelling is more of an issue with stronger systems like Dorian or Nate (2011).

[Shell Mound]

This has the potential to become a major hurricane over the southern Gulf of Mexico, given the likelihood of dual outflow channels setting up. A cutoff low may be situated southwest of the system, ventilating the western flank, while ridging off to the east imparts outflow on the northern side. Given that the system will be entering a very favourable environment of low VWS and above-average OHC/SSTs, it will likely track toward the eastern flank of the ECENS guidance. Therefore, expect models to start to shift away from TX and toward LA/W MS. New Orleans could expect a Cat-3+ if the worst-case scenario verifies.

Additionally, note that more than half of the 00Z EC ensembles do not show landfall in Mexico, but keep the centre offshore and track toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. I wouldn’t necessarily trust the deterministic EC (or GFS) runs at this point. I think that 93L (ex-Amanda) is already sufficiently organised and ready for regeneration within the next day and a half. The short-term intensity is likely to be stronger than most of the model guidance indicates, given the cohesiveness of the MLC while over land in the presence of very high PWATs. This is much better organised than anyone anticipated at this stage. Therefore, one system seems more likely to evolve than two and stay over water—that is, the BoC and the GoM—during the next five to seven days. I’m thinking that prospective Cristobal could very well imitate Michael (2018) and be much stronger than forecast at the time of its impact on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I should probably bump this post from yesterday. Given the current trend toward a much higher intensity in the short term, accentuated by the development of a small inner core, the eastward bias of the centre means even more time over water in closer proximity to the UL anticyclone. Even I did not anticipate such rapid organisation as seems to be occurring. I’m thinking that high-end Cat-3 or low-end Cat-4 status is within reach sometime prior to landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Confidence in major impacts to E LA/W MS is increasing. New Orleans and Slidell/Waveland, MS, watch out.

[DioBrando]

This has the potential to become a major hurricane over the southern Gulf of Mexico, given the likelihood of dual outflow channels setting up. A cutoff low may be situated southwest of the system, ventilating the western flank, while ridging off to the east imparts outflow on the northern side. Given that the system will be entering a very favourable environment of low VWS and above-average OHC/SSTs, it will likely track toward the eastern flank of the ECENS guidance. Therefore, expect models to start to shift away from TX and toward LA/W MS. New Orleans could expect a Cat-3+ if the worst-case scenario verifies.

Additionally, note that more than half of the 00Z EC ensembles do not show landfall in Mexico, but keep the centre offshore and track toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. I wouldn’t necessarily trust the deterministic EC (or GFS) runs at this point. I think that 93L (ex-Amanda) is already sufficiently organised and ready for regeneration within the next day and a half. The short-term intensity is likely to be stronger than most of the model guidance indicates, given the cohesiveness of the MLC while over land in the presence of very high PWATs. This is much better organised than anyone anticipated at this stage. Therefore, one system seems more likely to evolve than two and stay over water—that is, the BoC and the GoM—during the next five to seven days. I’m thinking that prospective Cristobal could very well imitate Michael (2018) and be much stronger than forecast at the time of its impact on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I should probably bump this post from yesterday. Given the current trend toward a much higher intensity in the short term, accentuated by the development of a small inner core, the eastward bias of the centre means even more time over water in closer proximity to the UL anticyclone. Even I did not anticipate such rapid organisation as seems to be occurring. I’m thinking that high-end Cat-3 or low-end Cat-4 status is within reach sometime prior to landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Confidence in major impacts to E LA/W MS is increasing. New Orleans and Slidell/Waveland, MS, watch out.

even if the water is rather cold?

[GCANE]

Cold cloud tops expanding radially in all directions from the tower on the coast.

[psyclone]

This has the potential to become a major hurricane over the southern Gulf of Mexico, given the likelihood of dual outflow channels setting up. A cutoff low may be situated southwest of the system, ventilating the western flank, while ridging off to the east imparts outflow on the northern side. Given that the system will be entering a very favourable environment of low VWS and above-average OHC/SSTs, it will likely track toward the eastern flank of the ECENS guidance. Therefore, expect models to start to shift away from TX and toward LA/W MS. New Orleans could expect a Cat-3+ if the worst-case scenario verifies.

Additionally, note that more than half of the 00Z EC ensembles do not show landfall in Mexico, but keep the centre offshore and track toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. I wouldn’t necessarily trust the deterministic EC (or GFS) runs at this point. I think that 93L (ex-Amanda) is already sufficiently organised and ready for regeneration within the next day and a half. The short-term intensity is likely to be stronger than most of the model guidance indicates, given the cohesiveness of the MLC while over land in the presence of very high PWATs. This is much better organised than anyone anticipated at this stage. Therefore, one system seems more likely to evolve than two and stay over water—that is, the BoC and the GoM—during the next five to seven days. I’m thinking that prospective Cristobal could very well imitate Michael (2018) and be much stronger than forecast at the time of its impact on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I should probably bump this post from yesterday. Given the current trend toward a much higher intensity in the short term, accentuated by the development of a small inner core, the eastward bias of the centre means even more time over water in closer proximity to the UL anticyclone. Even I did not anticipate such rapid organisation as seems to be occurring. I’m thinking that high-end Cat-3 or low-end Cat-4 status is within reach sometime prior to landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Confidence in major impacts to E LA/W MS is increasing. New Orleans and Slidell/Waveland, MS, watch out.

It is extremely difficult to get a US hurricane landfall in June let alone a major. I recall Alberto (V 2006) inducing a brief panic as it organized in early june before collapsing spectacularly. When one has to go back decades for their "it can happen" example like Alma or Audrey...it means such events are exceedingly rare.

[aspen]

Additionally, note that more than half of the 00Z EC ensembles do not show landfall in Mexico, but keep the centre offshore and track toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. I wouldn’t necessarily trust the deterministic EC (or GFS) runs at this point. I think that 93L (ex-Amanda) is already sufficiently organised and ready for regeneration within the next day and a half. The short-term intensity is likely to be stronger than most of the model guidance indicates, given the cohesiveness of the MLC while over land in the presence of very high PWATs. This is much better organised than anyone anticipated at this stage. Therefore, one system seems more likely to evolve than two and stay over water—that is, the BoC and the GoM—during the next five to seven days. I’m thinking that prospective Cristobal could very well imitate Michael (2018) and be much stronger than forecast at the time of its impact on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I should probably bump this post from yesterday. Given the current trend toward a much higher intensity in the short term, accentuated by the development of a small inner core, the eastward bias of the centre means even more time over water in closer proximity to the UL anticyclone. Even I did not anticipate such rapid organisation as seems to be occurring. I’m thinking that high-end Cat-3 or low-end Cat-4 status is within reach sometime prior to landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Confidence in major impacts to E LA/W MS is increasing. New Orleans and Slidell/Waveland, MS, watch out.

It is extremely difficult to get a US hurricane landfall in June let alone a major. I recall Alberto (V 2006) inducing a brief panic as it organized in early june before collapsing spectacularly. When one has to go back decades for their "it can happen" example like Alma or Audrey...it means such events are exceedingly rare.

To be fair, Alberto ‘06 was almost a Cat 1 hurricane, so it was rather significant for a June system. If Cristobal gets to 60 kt as well, it would be by far the best June system since 2012’s Hurricane Chris.

[La Breeze]

Additionally, note that more than half of the 00Z EC ensembles do not show landfall in Mexico, but keep the centre offshore and track toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. I wouldn’t necessarily trust the deterministic EC (or GFS) runs at this point. I think that 93L (ex-Amanda) is already sufficiently organised and ready for regeneration within the next day and a half. The short-term intensity is likely to be stronger than most of the model guidance indicates, given the cohesiveness of the MLC while over land in the presence of very high PWATs. This is much better organised than anyone anticipated at this stage. Therefore, one system seems more likely to evolve than two and stay over water—that is, the BoC and the GoM—during the next five to seven days. I’m thinking that prospective Cristobal could very well imitate Michael (2018) and be much stronger than forecast at the time of its impact on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I should probably bump this post from yesterday. Given the current trend toward a much higher intensity in the short term, accentuated by the development of a small inner core, the eastward bias of the centre means even more time over water in closer proximity to the UL anticyclone. Even I did not anticipate such rapid organisation as seems to be occurring. I’m thinking that high-end Cat-3 or low-end Cat-4 status is within reach sometime prior to landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Confidence in major impacts to E LA/W MS is increasing. New Orleans and Slidell/Waveland, MS, watch out.

It is extremely difficult to get a US hurricane landfall in June let alone a major. I recall Alberto (V 2006) inducing a brief panic as it organized in early june before collapsing spectacularly. When one has to go back decades for their "it can happen" example like Alma or Audrey...it means such events are exceedingly rare.

With respect to your comment on majors being rare in June - I lived through Audrey (I know, it was a long time ago), but I still remember it and anything certainly can happen with the GOM. I am praying that nothing comes of this.

[aspen]

A quick graphic I made of Cristobal using some of the recent visible and IR satellite loops:

[cycloneye]

It will reach land in Campeche.

INIT 02/2100Z 19.1N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 18.8N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 18.4N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/0600Z 18.2N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0600Z 19.1N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 05/1800Z 20.4N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/1800Z 23.7N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/1800Z 28.0N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER

[tropicwatch]

Will be interesting to see what recon finds.

[northjaxpro]

It will reach land in Campeche.

INIT 02/2100Z 19.1N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 18.8N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 18.4N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/0600Z 18.2N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0600Z 19.1N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 05/1800Z 20.4N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/1800Z 23.7N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/1800Z 28.0N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER

https://i.imgur.com/VydOlT4.png

Yes, Cristobal will make a landfall, according to this within the next 12 hours at least, possibly sooner.

[wxman57]

Finally, NHC gave up the bit slow-down and has landfall Sunday evening. Their 120hr point is almost exactly on ours.

[Tireman4]

Finally, NHC gave up the bit slow-down and has landfall Sunday evening. Their 120hr point is almost exactly on ours.

This will still be a large system,will it not? There will be a lot of rain ( I am assuming) with this system?