ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

For what it’s worth HWRF doesn’t even start to wrap this thing up for another 36+ hrs

[Javlin]

I definitely get a “Georges in 1998” vibe with this one. Anything can happen of course. But setup/forecast track looks pretty similar as of now

Georges? No way this gets that far west. At this point a recuve is more likely than MS/AL/Western Panhandle.

Don't know about that how many have made it that far west thus far?97L as wave has gone pretty far.

[St0rmTh0r]

https://i.imgur.com/97cd6xI.gif
Convection building over circulation center @12.8N/45W... Let's see if it persists...

Well clearly the GFS and Euro are broken this thing is quickly organizing and a ts is very likely to impact the LA soon.

[abajan]

It wouldn't be 2020 without our best models showing no development as observations show an organizing disturbance. Probably not too far off from a TC right now. Aric is correct that the eastern side has gotten better organized, shedding the convergent boundary associated with the monsoon trough. I think this should allow convection to persist in the western vort max we have been tracking.

I don't want to speculate on the forecast track too much until we definitively see where and when a TC forms, but if I lived in the northern Antilles, I would definitely prepare for the potential of TC impacts over the next 3–5 days.

Something to note: as of now, we should have a NOAA P3 flight into 98L sometime tomorrow. Hopefully observations from the plane, including the onboard radar observations, will allow the models to more properly resolve the structure of the disturbance.

Pardon me for asking you to prematurely speculate, but (in your professional opinion) is Barbados in any danger of being hit directly by this?

Of course you should first listen to NHC/your local officials, but in my opinion, that looks quite unlikely at this time. The island could get some squally weather from some outer bands of the disturbance.

Absolutely. Nevertheless, thanks for your opinion. It's pretty much in sync with what I figured would be most likely to happen.

[DestinHurricane]

I'd expect a depression by tonight by the looks of things now.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking down through the cloud layers.. this is stacked from probably 500mb down to 850 for sure and likely down to 925mb.

the convection building to the north, west, and south will likely solidify a surface circ under this area.

Looking really good right now.

[DestinHurricane]

Maybe just my eyes but looks like it is gaining some latitude now.

[AutoPenalti]

No shear is hitting this atm, Levi mentioned that it may stack once it hits the ULL.

[Shell Mound]

Bear in mind that the models that currently take 98L over Hispaniola are likely underestimating short-term intensification through day four. If current trends continue, 98L could develop a tight inner core overnight, thanks to the diurnal maximum. The low-level circulation is already rather compact. As soon as a centre becomes established within the next day and a half, 98L could intensify considerably faster than currently indicated, given that environmental conditions are certainly conducive. The fact that 98L is still generating convection through the diurnal minimum could indicate that the ECMWF may bust, though its convective scheme is normally superior to that of the other models.

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1296078462827089921



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1296080040837500932



 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1296091197224689664

[OuterBanker]

To me the WV loop it looks like an elongated low. A vort around 11.5 n and another around 13.5 n. The north vort seems to be rotating around the 11.5 vort. Maybe it's the old vort to the east that caught up with the west vort.

[abajan]

Maybe just my eyes but looks like it is gaining some latitude now.

I think it is.

[Kazmit]

Maybe just my eyes but looks like it is gaining some latitude now.

I was about to mention this too. Once it's closed it should be more noticeable.

[wxman57]

My track yesterday had it crossing the islands of the NE Caribbean Fri PM/Sat AM then moving along the coasts of the DR & Cuba Sun/Mon, possibly as a weak TS interacting with land or a depression. It may be moving fast enough there to produce 40 mph winds on the north side. The environment won't be THAT favorable for strengthening over the next 5 days. I had it in the east-central Gulf Tuesday morning as a 40 kt TS yesterday. Today's track is similar, but advances the center to near the AL/FL border Wednesday afternoon as a 55 kt TS. Why 55 kts? Just a guess this far out. Somewhere between an open wave and a Cat 2 hurricane. Don't want to cause too much alarm 7 days out for Gulf Coast clients.

I like how some of the models (UKMET, CMC, ICON) have two storms in the Gulf at the same time next Mon/Tue. That would be fun - NOT! Oh well, it is 2020, what else could go wrong?

[SFLcane]

My track yesterday had it crossing the islands of the NE Caribbean Fri PM/Sat AM then moving along the coasts of the DR & Cuba Sun/Mon, possibly as a weak TS interacting with land or a depression. It may be moving fast enough there to produce 40 mph winds on the north side. The environment won't be THAT favorable for strengthening over the next 5 days. I had it in the east-central Gulf Tuesday morning as a 40 kt TS yesterday. Today's track is similar, but advances the center to near the AL/FL border Wednesday afternoon as a 55 kt TS. Why 55 kts? Just a guess this far out. Somewhere between an open wave and a Cat 2 hurricane. Don't want to cause too much alarm 7 days out for Gulf Coast clients.

I like how some of the models (UKMET, CMC, ICON) have two storms in the Gulf at the same time next Mon/Tue. That would be fun - NOT! Oh well, it is 2020, what else could go wrong?

Seems like a non issue for SFL per this post.

[Fego]

My track yesterday had it crossing the islands of the NE Caribbean Fri PM/Sat AM then moving along the coasts of the DR & Cuba Sun/Mon, possibly as a weak TS interacting with land or a depression. It may be moving fast enough there to produce 40 mph winds on the north side. The environment won't be THAT favorable for strengthening over the next 5 days. I had it in the east-central Gulf Tuesday morning as a 40 kt TS yesterday. Today's track is similar, but advances the center to near the AL/FL border Wednesday afternoon as a 55 kt TS. Why 55 kts? Just a guess this far out. Somewhere between an open wave and a Cat 2 hurricane. Don't want to cause too much alarm 7 days out for Gulf Coast clients.

I like how some of the models (UKMET, CMC, ICON) have two storms in the Gulf at the same time next Mon/Tue. That would be fun - NOT! Oh well, it is 2020, what else could go wrong?

... your vacations being, cancelled?

[drezee]

.

I like how some of the models (UKMET, CMC, ICON) have two storms in the Gulf at the same time next Mon/Tue. That would be fun - NOT! Oh well, it is 2020, what else could go wrong?

Yes, 2020 finds a way...just ask Cabo this AM.

[wxman57]

My track yesterday had it crossing the islands of the NE Caribbean Fri PM/Sat AM then moving along the coasts of the DR & Cuba Sun/Mon, possibly as a weak TS interacting with land or a depression. It may be moving fast enough there to produce 40 mph winds on the north side. The environment won't be THAT favorable for strengthening over the next 5 days. I had it in the east-central Gulf Tuesday morning as a 40 kt TS yesterday. Today's track is similar, but advances the center to near the AL/FL border Wednesday afternoon as a 55 kt TS. Why 55 kts? Just a guess this far out. Somewhere between an open wave and a Cat 2 hurricane. Don't want to cause too much alarm 7 days out for Gulf Coast clients.

I like how some of the models (UKMET, CMC, ICON) have two storms in the Gulf at the same time next Mon/Tue. That would be fun - NOT! Oh well, it is 2020, what else could go wrong?

Seems like a non issue for SFL per this post.

I wouldn't make that conclusion just yet. A track away from the DR & Cuba could lead to strong TS winds in South Florida. Can't rule out a hurricane, but I don't think a hurricane would be likely in the FL straits.

[DestinHurricane]

My track yesterday had it crossing the islands of the NE Caribbean Fri PM/Sat AM then moving along the coasts of the DR & Cuba Sun/Mon, possibly as a weak TS interacting with land or a depression. It may be moving fast enough there to produce 40 mph winds on the north side. The environment won't be THAT favorable for strengthening over the next 5 days. I had it in the east-central Gulf Tuesday morning as a 40 kt TS yesterday. Today's track is similar, but advances the center to near the AL/FL border Wednesday afternoon as a 55 kt TS. Why 55 kts? Just a guess this far out. Somewhere between an open wave and a Cat 2 hurricane. Don't want to cause too much alarm 7 days out for Gulf Coast clients.

I like how some of the models (UKMET, CMC, ICON) have two storms in the Gulf at the same time next Mon/Tue. That would be fun - NOT! Oh well, it is 2020, what else could go wrong?

Seems like a non issue for SFL per this post.

Please.. Anything moving along the coast of DR & Cuba could pose a threat to SFL. If it makes a N turn like these things do a lot then it's into metro SE FL most likely. S FL is certainly not in the clear.

[Shell Mound]

It may be moving fast enough there to produce 40 mph winds on the north side. The environment won't be THAT favorable for strengthening over the next 5 days.

Besides interaction with land, what unfavourable factors do you see? I am curious as to your meteorological reasoning. Do you think the TUTT will be rather strong?

[eastcoastFL]

Icon still heading north of the islands. I guess it’s up in the air until we get a good center fix. When would the first recon flight be? Tomorrow sometime?