ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cfisher]

You can see a spinning inner core on visible. Is it finally stacked?

A little bit a dry air to weed out and this thing goes nuclear

[cfisher]

Best to wait for a couple of recon fixes to get the true movement of Laura. The big eye that's now obscured by deep rotating convection threw it off just a little but it should eventually get back on track. The real question in regards to track is when does the NW/NNW turn begin to take place. A delay in THAT turn will have big implications for Galveston and Houston.

If you look at visible it's clearly still moving WNW

[wx98]

Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...LAURA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 88.3W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

[dantonlsu]

And the wobble watching begins...

[KWT]

https://i.imgur.com/IECcqYN.png

Center is likely in the SW corner of the banding eye we saw earlier, judging by the movement of the convective burst. As that rotates around the top there may be a westward jog

It almost certainly is in that section of the eye based on what the low level cloud deck was doing just before it had that large convective blowup. However that still doesn't take away from the fact Laura is definitely on the eastern side of the cone at the moment. It may just be a snapback now the system is becoming better aligned and less lopsided on the southern side.

[wxman57]

No change in NHC track - into Port Arthur around 3am Thursday. I have it about 30 miles west into High Island same time. Would rather the NHC be right.

[eastcoastFL]

[Blow_Hard]

I see they have left the LF intensity at 115mph. That's only 35mph more than what it is now. I gotta believe it's going to come in around 130-135mph.
Just my gut feeling...

[Blown Away]

Best to wait for a couple of recon fixes to get the true movement of Laura. The big eye that's now obscured by deep rotating convection threw it off just a little but it should eventually get back on track. The real question in regards to track is when does the NW/NNW turn begin to take place. A delay in THAT turn will have big implications for Galveston and Houston.

If you look at visible it's clearly still moving WNW

Based on the 4pm update, Laura has moved a little E or right of the NHC track today if you compare to previous advisory predictions. The predicted wind field is not huge compared to previous monsters, so I’m guessing you gotta be within @35 miles from the eye to get the big winds. JMHO

[GumboCane83]

Best to wait for a couple of recon fixes to get the true movement of Laura. The big eye that's now obscured by deep rotating convection threw it off just a little but it should eventually get back on track. The real question in regards to track is when does the NW/NNW turn begin to take place. A delay in THAT turn will have big implications for Galveston and Houston.

What if the NW/NNW turn happen sooner or sharper?

[HurryKane]

https://twitter.com/SylvesterTurner/status/1298318546976595972

“ You should be where you are at that time.” Bless his heart

[storm_in_a_teacup]

On Space City Weather they're claiming the absolute worst case track for Houston (West end of Galveston or San Luis Pass landfall) is probably not going to happen...
Though I'm not sure "hey at least you get the left side" is much comfort for a Category 4+ storm if Laura bombs out...

[Blow_Hard]

Best to wait for a couple of recon fixes to get the true movement of Laura. The big eye that's now obscured by deep rotating convection threw it off just a little but it should eventually get back on track. The real question in regards to track is when does the NW/NNW turn begin to take place. A delay in THAT turn will have big implications for Galveston and Houston.

What if the NW/NNW turn happen sooner or sharper?

Always a possibility but by now they have a pretty good handle on the placement and strength of the ridge and they'll be dang close. What is more likely to happen is a quicker motion to the right just prior to landfall as stronger storms are prone to do this a la Charley, Ivan etc...

[eastcoastFL]

Disclaimer **NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST **

I'm going to say I think this will be a 130kt storm heading into Port Arthur TX. I hope im wrong and I hope everyone is safe and prepared.

***THIS IS AN AMATEUR OPINION***

Looks like my estimated track may pan out. I really hope I’m wrong on intensity. Hopefully there’s unforeseen issues that can put a dent in her.

[Blow_Hard]

https://twitter.com/SylvesterTurner/status/1298318546976595972

“ You should be where you are at that time.” Bless his heart

I'm usually always at where I am but at times I know not where I am...

[wkwally]

Regardless of the official NHC track I am preparing for the worst. If that does not happen then well I was prepared. Even going as far as filling the tubs up with water incase of power outages.

[jlauderdal]

No change in NHC track - into Port Arthur around 3am Thursday. I have it about 30 miles west into High Island same time. Would rather the NHC be right.

There you go folks, we are down to less than 50 miles either side of the NHC track, 57 within 30 to the west. if you are chasing it, Galveston to cameron is your spot for now.

[cycloneye]

5 PM track:

[TheStormExpert]

I see Euro and GFS ensembles are between Houston and Beaumont. As long as it's EAST of Galveston Bay, Houston will be OK. Planning to ride it out at the office tomorrow night, where we have guaranteed power & internet.

What’s your best guesstimate on landfall intensity? In my opinion the NHC might be a little conservative but nonetheless it’s still more than likely to be a major at landfall.

[Blown Away]

Disclaimer **NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST **

I'm going to say I think this will be a 130kt storm heading into Port Arthur TX. I hope im wrong and I hope everyone is safe and prepared.

***THIS IS AN AMATEUR OPINION***[/

Looks like my estimated track may pan out. I really hope I’m wrong on intensity. Hopefully there’s unforeseen issues that can put a dent in her.

I think the residential communities are 10-15+ miles inland from the coast, so maybe that allows some of the wind sting to slow a bit