ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

Laura right now looks to me like she is headed
for the Lake Charles area.

[HoustonFrog]

Laura right now looks to me like she is headed
for the Lake Charles area.

That would be different than every single model. Hope you are right!

[AubreyStorm]

That massive tower is now obscuring the eye.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200825/ganimrysheb10.jpg

Where do u get this view?

[Hammy]

That massive tower is now obscuring the eye.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200825/ganimrysheb10.jpg

Where do u get this view?

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

Click any of the images and (as these zoom) once you do click exactly where you want to view.

[xironman]

No change in NHC track - into Port Arthur around 3am Thursday. I have it about 30 miles west into High Island same time. Would rather the NHC be right.

There you go folks, we are down to less than 50 miles either side of the NHC track, 57 within 30 to the west. if you are chasing it, Galveston to cameron is your spot for now.

That is a bad place to chase, concrete structures, i.e. parking garages are the safest places. Too rural.

[Highteeld]

Reminds me of Typhoon Kammuri from last year

[jlauderdal]

No change in NHC track - into Port Arthur around 3am Thursday. I have it about 30 miles west into High Island same time. Would rather the NHC be right.

There you go folks, we are down to less than 50 miles either side of the NHC track, 57 within 30 to the west. if you are chasing it, Galveston to cameron is your spot for now.

That is a bad place to chase, concrete structures, i.e. parking garages are the safest places. Too rural.

If you are chasing them, you dont always get a cozy place to hangout like a parking garage...good chasers find it and stay alive, natural or manamade structures.

[ConvergenceZone]

I see they have left the LF intensity at 115mph. That's only 35mph more than what it is now. I gotta believe it's going to come in around 130-135mph.
Just my gut feeling...

I think they are getting pretty confident about the strength, Conditions are Good for strengthening, just not perfect, which is why they are probably leveling it off at 115 mph

[eastcoastFL]

Disclaimer **NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST **

I'm going to say I think this will be a 130kt storm heading into Port Arthur TX. I hope im wrong and I hope everyone is safe and prepared.

***THIS IS AN AMATEUR OPINION***[/

Looks like my estimated track may pan out. I really hope I’m wrong on intensity. Hopefully there’s unforeseen issues that can put a dent in her.

I think the residential communities are 10-15+ miles inland from the coast, so maybe that allows some of the wind sting to slow a bit

I sure hope so. Nobody wants to take 100kts sustained head on so port Arthur is probably one of the better options if it has to hit somewhere at all. It’s gonna be a scary 48 hours for the folks in that general area and it will probably be wide spread power outages as it rolls east across the country.

[cfisher]

Average 2mb core drop every hour from now till landfall wouldn't be unreasonable. That would be a 918mb landfall

[hipshot]

https://twitter.com/SylvesterTurner/status/1298318546976595972

“ You should be where you are at that time.” Bless his heart

That brought a chuckle to my day, sure hope I am where I am or I'm having an out of body experience.

[Steve]

I see they have left the LF intensity at 115mph. That's only 35mph more than what it is now. I gotta believe it's going to come in around 130-135mph.
Just my gut feeling...

I think they are getting pretty confident about the strength, Conditions are Good for strengthening, just not perfect, which is why they are probably leveling it off at 115 mph

They’ll be fairly close to excellent. But with only 30something hours until landfall, it’s not going to have enough time to drop super low. There are some historical exceptions. I believe someone brought up Wilma yesterday. But even if it drops say another 40mb by landfall, that’s still impressive af. Any more than that is a bonus for the storm.

[Nederlander]

I think the residential communities are 10-15+ miles inland from the coast, so maybe that allows some of the wind sting to slow a bit

I sure hope so. Nobody wants to take 100kts sustained head on so port Arthur is probably one of the better options if it has to hit somewhere at all. It’s gonna be a scary 48 hours for the folks in that general area and it will probably be wide spread power outages as it rolls east across the country.

SW LA would be far better from a population perspective. Not that I’m wishing it my Cajun neighbors by any means, but falling on the LA side would drastically reduce storm surge threat for 100k or so.

[Blow_Hard]

I see they have left the LF intensity at 115mph. That's only 35mph more than what it is now. I gotta believe it's going to come in around 130-135mph.
Just my gut feeling...

I think they are getting pretty confident about the strength, Conditions are Good for strengthening, just not perfect, which is why they are probably leveling it off at 115 mph

You're probably right. I just remember how they had Michael at about that intensity at the same time during his evolution and I was thinking I can handle a 115 mph storm. Then they gradually started to increase the intensity gradually until it was apparent he was off the chain and they began to be very liberal in their LF predictions.

[Steve]

I think the residential communities are 10-15+ miles inland from the coast, so maybe that allows some of the wind sting to slow a bit

I sure hope so. Nobody wants to take 100kts sustained head on so port Arthur is probably one of the better options if it has to hit somewhere at all. It’s gonna be a scary 48 hours for the folks in that general area and it will probably be wide spread power outages as it rolls east across the country.

A lot of them just paid with Harvey and Ike and Rita all in the last 15 years. They could use a break.

[cfisher]

I see they have left the LF intensity at 115mph. That's only 35mph more than what it is now. I gotta believe it's going to come in around 130-135mph.
Just my gut feeling...

I think they are getting pretty confident about the strength, Conditions are Good for strengthening, just not perfect, which is why they are probably leveling it off at 115 mph

They’ll be fairly close to excellent. But with only 30something hours until landfall, it’s not going to have enough time to drop super low. There are some historical exceptions. I believe someone brought up Wilma yesterday. But even if it drops say another 40mb by landfall, that’s still impressive af.

Climatologically, a 40mb drop over 36 hours with the environment, core structure and SSTs seems low.

[aspen]

NOAA plane has taken off from Florida, should arrive at Laura within the hour.

[FLpanhandle91]

I believe the X is the center. Thoughts?

[eastcoastFL]

Average 2mb core drop every hour from now till landfall wouldn't be unreasonable. That would be a 918mb landfall

Well the nhc is calling for shear the last 12 hours. They don’t think it will cause weakening but she keep it from intensifying further. That’s best case I guess. Your scenario isn’t far fetched.

[Hurrilurker]

Last few frames it's looking a lot more symmetrical, pretty soon I expect it to slough off all that junk to the south and an eye should be visible in the next few hours.