ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Roxy]

https://twitter.com/SylvesterTurner/status/1298318546976595972

Conspiracy theory, what does he know? Ohhhhhhhh

"You should be where you are at that time. #houwx"

well no kidding Sylvester.

[Kingarabian]

NRL/FNMOC need to fix their pages to be honest. Looks like they're using software of about 30 years old. Can't get either of the websites to load.

[ConvergenceZone]

I haven’t seen Jim Cantore live yet. I wonder if he’s taking this storm off?

[Nederlander]

I haven’t seen Jim Cantore live yet. I wonder if he’s taking this storm off?

He’s in Lake Charles.. Probably saving him for prime time / night crew during landfall

[gatorcane]

Definitely organizing. Saved loop:

[Blow_Hard]

Ok, just finished with doing the sand bags to the back door, cleaned out the gutters, and brought in the majority of all furniture from outside. Tomorrow morning after waking up and seeing what is going on, will decided if I need to sand bag the 2 front doors, got a old shower door to dam up my back french doors. Hopefully I won't have to do those things and this thing will be going closer to Houston than closer to me.

I'm sure you already know to do this but please make sure to take photos all around the exterior and interior of your house for Insurance purposes.

[GCANE]

Intermittent gravity waves in the CDO from the firing hot towers.
Indicates they are pushing up the tropopause allowing the vort column to expand vertically and eventually spinning up the vort column faster.

[AdamFirst]

Being on the left side didn't help New Orleans much for Katrina, although I'm guessing Houston's infrastructure isn't entirely the same. I guess it still floods easily there though, does it?

Problem with Katrina is that surge pushed up from the gulf into Lake Pontchartrain and then was pushed down into the canals that line through the city causing the eventual overtopping and levee breaking. Storm wind damage was evident but not major throughout New Orleans (roof, foliage, utility lines).

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the NOAA plane witll do a SE Pass first?

[tarheelprogrammer]

It appears that the system is bombing now. I am going to guess pressure is near 970 mb. Getting scary for the folks in the path of the system.

[Kazmit]

The north side is looking better and it's starting to get more symmetrical.

Midday today:



Now:

[BRweather]

I had asked this earlier. What is the best site to overlap visible satellite with track forecast? CIMSS is 90 minutes behind current observation.

[Steve]

Being on the left side didn't help New Orleans much for Katrina, although I'm guessing Houston's infrastructure isn't entirely the same. I guess it still floods easily there though, does it?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think most of NOLA's problems with Katrina came from the configuration of the bodies of water to the east and north of the city. As Katrina approached, she shoved a ton of water into Lake Borgne and Lake Pontchartrain around the north side of the circulation, which then rushed into the canal system of the city, overtopping and collapsing levees. Winds were not that big of an issue comparatively (probably Cat-1 sustained in the city?).

https://i.postimg.cc/NMpn3gZm/Katrina.png

Yeah, it did work mostly like that. Mississippi River Gulf Outlet was a SE facing funnel shaped ship channel that opened into St. Bernard and flooded them to our east. The water came up as it would in a surge but was contained around most of the city. We had a tree fall on our house, but most people were okay from the storm itself. It was the broken levees in different areas that flowed all the water in which then overwhelms the drainage system and just spreads out like water will until it's level. Barges hit the walls near the 9th Ward. I-wall style construction broke in other parts. We have pretty good flood protection. But the problem is once it gets in, there really isn't anywhere for it to go. Possibly in the future they will move more storm drainage to the MS River where it can flow out rather than just being backed up.

[xironman]

Yep weak eye getting filled over by the convection around the eyewall, a sure sign that this system is intensifying. Recon heading into Laura at the moment so we will get a better idea of where its current strength is.

Probably has a solid 24hrs of strengthening about to happen.

Good to see you on the thread.

[GCANE]

Do you see any of your rosby waves or AWRBs around the gulf?

The Rossby Wave is outlined by the 250mb vort. Its driving the trough to Laura's west.
The ARWB is the big area of low to no shear where Laura is sitting in the middle of.

https://i.imgur.com/9x323f4.png

https://i.imgur.com/lcxXLc8.png

Thank you! My gcane bat signal worked and I got the info I was looking for!

LoL, YW.
Ya, the Rossby Wave and associated ARWB is arguably one of the best UL setups for a TC to track into and intensify.
Marco was a bit early, Laura timed it perfectly.

[Steve]

Being on the left side didn't help New Orleans much for Katrina, although I'm guessing Houston's infrastructure isn't entirely the same. I guess it still floods easily there though, does it?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think most of NOLA's problems with Katrina came from the configuration of the bodies of water to the east and north of the city. As Katrina approached, she shoved a ton of water into Lake Borgne and Lake Pontchartrain around the north side of the circulation, which then rushed into the canal system of the city, overtopping and collapsing levees. Winds were not that big of an issue comparatively (probably Cat-1 sustained in the city?).

Yeah, it was her angle of approach. Southern MS sustained the most damage from winds

Trees were down way up toward Hattiesburg, and it was probably just a 2 there with tornadoes. Along the coast, many buildings were scraped from their foundations. Many that remained standing had their contents washed through with the surge as it came in. Our own Frank P lives along the MS Coast and lost his house he thought would withstand anything but the worst of the worst storms. I remember he posted that he found a couple of identifiable kitchen tiles down the block. I could be wrong, but some of that surge was like 25+ feet, and they have a very shallow coast pretty far out.

Speaking of tornadoes, watch those outer bands farther in from landfall and in advance of landfall.

[Stormcenter]

Laura is definitely expanding in size.

[us89]

Possibly in the future they will move more storm drainage to the MS River where it can flow out rather than just being backed up.

One potential problem with that: the MS river is several feet higher than Lake Pontchartrain, which is more or less at sea level.

[cfisher]

Dual outflow setting up as it reaches a zone of weaker shear. Likely to be a major hurricane by tomorrow morning

[ClarCari]

The north side is looking better and it's starting to get more symmetrical.

Midday today:

https://img.techpowerup.org/200825/screenshot-2020-08-25-at-11-39-21-am.png

Now:

https://img.techpowerup.org/200825/ganimm7ijxe10.jpg

Got that fetus/shrimp look every monster storm looks like before their eye pokes out

So poetic....like from innocent baby to a monster...