ATL: PAULETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

I keep imagining Paulette waking from her slumber and noticing that the Atlantic is just different now. Like where did Sally go? And who are these new guys?

And why does the new girl in the gulf have such a weird name?

Absolutely floored we could have Beta (or heck maybe even Gamma!) by the time Paulette could reform. That’s a 6-7 name gap!!! Easily demonstrates the most active September on record...ever.

Most active month on record. 10 named storms once we get Beta...11 with Gamma.

[aspen]

And why does the new girl in the gulf have such a weird name?

Absolutely floored we could have Beta (or heck maybe even Gamma!) by the time Paulette could reform. That’s a 6-7 name gap!!! Easily demonstrates the most active September on record...ever.

Most active month on record. 10 named storms once we get Beta...11 with Gamma.

It’s either 9 or 10 currently depending on whether you count Omar. I do, because it wasn’t named until September 1st.

I would not be surprised if October’s NS record isn’t threatened as well this year.

[cycloneye]

Post-tropical cyclone Paulette is located a few hundred miles
northwest of the Azores. The cyclone is forecast to move quickly
southward for the next couple of days and then stall over marginally
warm waters a few hundred miles south or south-southwest of the
Azores by the end of the weekend. The cyclone could subsequently
redevelop tropical characteristics late this weekend or early next
week while it moves little. For more information about marine
hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued
by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[al78]

I would not be surprised if October’s NS record isn’t threatened as well this year.

I expect to see an active October. La Nina conditions tend to result in increased activity late season (2007 excepted). A bit ominous that October storms tend to form in the Caribbean and Gulf, and storms this year heading for mainland U.S. have had a habit of intensifying up until landfall, normally they weaken in the hours prior to coming ashore.

[cycloneye]

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is located near the western Azores.
The cyclone is forecast to move southward for the next couple of
days and then stall over marginally warm waters a few hundred miles
south of the Azores by the end of the weekend. The cyclone could
redevelop tropical characteristics late this weekend or early next
week while it moves little. For more information about marine
hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued
by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[us89]

Now up to 50/60

Shower activity has increased a little today in association with
Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette, which is is moving southward a few
hundred miles southwest of the Azores. The cyclone is forecast to
continue southward for the next day or so and then stall over
marginally warm waters a few hundred miles south of the Azores. The
cyclone could subsequently develop tropical or subtropical
characteristics by early next week while it moves little. For more
information about marine hazards associated with this system, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Extratropical94]

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is located a few hundred miles south
of the Azores and continues to produce a few showers, well to the
northwest and north of its center of circulation. This system is
drifting southward over marginally warm waters and is expected to
begin moving eastward in a couple of days. The cyclone could
develop tropical or subtropical characteristics during the next day
or two. For more information about marine hazards associated with
this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[aspen]

Up to 80/80 in the 2pm TWO and expected to regenerate later today or tonight.

[supercane4867]

Looks just as tropical as Alpha ever did.

[northjaxpro]

She is beginning to wrap convection around the center again. Looks like she could be classified as tropical again as well imo.

[jaxfladude]

Where's she going?

[wx98]

Where's she going?

Looks like between the Azores and Canary Islands.

[Hurricane Mike]

I'm guessing she's back.

[Hurricanehink]

Seems like Wilfred’s moisture is fueling Paulette.

[Extratropical94]

AL, 17, 2020092118, , BEST, 0, 333N, 278W, 35, 1008, SS

No advisories yet, but according to BT she's officially back

[gfsperpendicular]

Beta and Paulette simultaneously active, unreal

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone
Paulette located about 250 miles south of the easternmost Azores
are showing some signs of organization. Only a slight increase in
organization could result in the formation of a subtropical or
tropical cyclone tonight or early Tuesday while the system
moves eastward at 10 to 15 mph. By late Tuesday or Tuesday
night, the system is forecast to move into less favorable
environmental conditions, and further development is not expected.
For more information about marine hazards associated with this
system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[ClarCari]

Well since BT already says she’s SS, is NHC updating the TWO just a formality then since they won’t issues advisory until 11PM?
It must be odd knowing something is already a system but having to pretend it’s not for procedure.

[ElectricStorm]

Imagine if this follows Alpha and landfalls in Portugal. Only in 2020

[us89]

Well since BT already says she’s SS, is NHC updating the TWO just a formality then since they won’t issues advisory until 11PM?
It must be odd knowing something is already a system but having to pretend it’s not for procedure.

NHC would have had that best track data for the 5pm advisory cycle.