ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

[Highteeld]

85 knot intensity by 06z tonight would technically be RI since it was at 55 knots 06z last night (30 knots/24 hours). We'll see what happens; I think 90-95 knots by then is possible. I'd expect pressure drops with every pass here on out given the incredible hot tower-triplets we're seeing right now. This is as much lightning I've seen in a TC since Dorian last year.

[Kazmit]

I find intensification from strong TS to cat 2 to be one of the most interesting part of a hurricane’s life. I will be staying up tonight for sure.

[Ken711]

NHC discussion:

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 983 mb (29.03 inches).

[Buck]

This is fun to watch for sure...

https://i.imgur.com/JqZNBf8.gif

Not for those directly in its path.

Yeah it’s like every hurricane we have to remind people not to shame people for saying things like this. Of course they didn’t mean that but we are all members of this forum because we are fascinated by these storms. Y’all quit guilt-tripping supercane.

[IsabelaWeather]

Dropsonde in the center has a pressure of 984 mbar. That’s quite a drop from the 990 mbar pressure from the 5pm update.

Not so significant when you consider the last recon was ~990 this morning.

No, what is significant is the center is closing off. It can't really strengthen much without a closed core.

[cfisher]

Looks like some dry air got sucked in from the south. Probably a minor dent in an otherwise insane core blowup

[wkwally]

This is fun to watch for sure...

https://i.imgur.com/JqZNBf8.gif

Glade you are having fun. Not so much when you are in the path. Bless your heart!

[tolakram]

Ocean Heat Content & Forecast Track

source: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al132020

[Highteeld]

If the core had just formed a few miles less in diameter... could have seen something Rita-esque

[Highteeld]

I find intensification from strong TS to cat 2 to be one of the most interesting part of a hurricane’s life. I will be staying up tonight for sure.

So much can go wrong during that phase lol.

[wx98]

7:00 PM CDT Tue Aug 25
Location: 25.0°N 89.0°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like some dry air got sucked in from the south. Probably a minor dent in an otherwise insane core blowup

I am not seeing that. I do see a storm on the verge of RI though, sadly.

[Blinhart]

NHC discussion:

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 983 mb (29.03 inches).

What I find scary they say rapid weakening after landfall, but she is forecast to still be a hurricane near Shreveport.

[toad strangler]

This is fun to watch for sure...

https://i.imgur.com/JqZNBf8.gif

Glade you are having fun. Not so much when you are in the path. Bless your heart!

Ain't that the truth. Good luck and be safe!

Laura really looking gnarly now with those towers firing around the center right as daylight dims

[otowntiger]

Still not sure why this isn’t popping out a visible Eye yet

it’s not quite going thru RI, as many are expecting, yet. It is also possible that it never quite rapidly intensifies per the technical definition. It could just strengthen normally and/or level off. I’ve seen that happen In past storms where despite it looking like all systems go they just kind of level off. I’m not saying it won’t commence RI. -Just saying it’s not a given.

[Keldeo1997]

Yea its closed

[Blinhart]

Still not sure why this isn’t popping out a visible Eye yet

it’s not quite going thru RI, as many are expecting, yet. It is also possible that it never quite rapidly intensifies per the technical definition. It could just strengthen normally and/or level off. I’ve seen that happen quite a bit despite it looking like all systems go. I’m not saying it won’t commence RI. -Just saying it’s not a given.

You are about one of the few people that doesn't think it won't happen. Some of us even expect SEVERE RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

[Kingarabian]

Recon about to start the NE-SW pass now.

[tolakram]

My take, looking at Harvey and even an old Katrina loop, is that rapidly strengthening storms in the Gulf usually don't have a very clear eye until intensification starts to level off.