ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

Honestly it's a lot like watching storm chasing videos; a tornado heading for a barn is probably going to hit the barn no matter whether the guy in the video is yelling "YEAAAAH BABY WE GOT DEBRIS!" or "oh no please please please please don't hit the barn!" Nature doesn't care at all what we think or say and is going to do what it's going to do, and while tact is definitely called for in our excitement to watch what will certainly be a deadly and majorly life altering event take shape, we might as well get some awe and scientific amazement out of devastating destructive events that are gonna happen regardless of how we feel about them. It's how I got over my fear of wind as a kid; if it happens it happens no matter what, might as well learn about it, get at least some visual interest out of it while it's happening, and study the aftermath instead of just hiding and ignoring it

[Highteeld]

Doesn't look like they quite hit the center there. pressure falling quite rapidly, clearly

[MississippiWx]

Cam down there. That is an extremely rare event and it's unlikely for any given storm to achieve that. 2 in 3 years would be insane.

Current conditions don’t care too much about past statistics. Just ask people in Houston about a 1 in 500 year flood.

While it is difficult to get a Category 5 in any setup, it’s not unrealistic in the environment Laura will be traversing.

Laura's core is still broad at the moment. While I'm not going to rule out rapid intensification, internal conditions aren't there for doubling in intensity in 24 hours, and beyond that is shear from the approaching trough.

It has longer than 24 hours. More like 30 hours. That is plenty of time to strengthen to 160mph. If Laura were being choked out by dry air, then it would take a long time to tighten up the core. The upper level environment is also becoming increasingly better. The shear before landfall thing is more of a hope than a predicted event.

I’m not forecasting a Cat 5. I’d lean towards a low to mid grade Cat 4 if I were betting, though. Laura is just giving me that vibe.

[Visioen]

Every time I finish reading a page, a new one already exists. I'm gonna have to stop reading at some point lol.

[TexasF6]

From Aric's Meteorological Playground: she's pushing WNW still. A push W currently, and growing more powerful, IMO. Be safe everyone!!! And use the disclaimer? Some folks are saying willy nilly this and yadda yadda that as definitive statements. Be aware of new eyes in this special place please.

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?products=MIMICTPW2E.100&center=21.37124437061832,-64.75341796875001&zoom=5&width=1661&height=920&basemap=bw&labels=line&view=leaflet&timeproduct=MIMICTPW2E&timespan=-30t&animationspeed=100&animate=true





The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[hurricaneCW]

Laura's forming a well rounded CDO of intense cloud tops around the center.

Definitely see her peaking as a Cat 4 or better.

[supercane4867]

Ike managed to get down to 944mb in the middle of GOM with sustained winds only at 85kts. Isaac in 2012 was another classic example of how winds can significantly lag behind pressure drop under loose structure — It was 965mb/70kt.

[Kingarabian]

Current conditions don’t care too much about past statistics. Just ask people in Houston about a 1 in 500 year flood.

While it is difficult to get a Category 5 in any setup, it’s not unrealistic in the environment Laura will be traversing.

Laura's core is still broad at the moment. While I'm not going to rule out rapid intensification, internal conditions aren't there for doubling in intensity in 24 hours, and beyond that is shear from the approaching trough.

It has longer than 24 hours. More like 30 hours. That is plenty of time to strengthen to 160mph. If Laura were being choked out by dry air, then it would take a long time to tighten up the core. The upper level environment is also becoming increasingly better. The shear before landfall thing is more of a hope than a predicted event.

I’m not forecasting a Cat 5. I’d lean towards a low to mid grade Cat 4 if I were betting, though. Laura is just giving me that vibe.

Certainly. Any system with Laura's current structure and the favorable conditions ahead of it has a maximum ceiling.

[PavelGaborik10]

She looks great, winds are lower than I expected. Still some work to do, but clearly strengthening.

[Nimbus]

I am a broken record but we watched Michael go from a forecast Cat 2 at landfall to a Cat 5 at landfall.

My plan is for a high Cat 4 and will be glad if wrong.

Chuck

Wise decision but is the difference between cat and cat 4 preps?

With Cat 4 storms you should take pictures of your house to prove there was a habitat there and leave.
We adjusted claims for mobile home owners after hurricane Andrew and there were often just concrete slabs.

[SconnieCane]

Ike managed to get down to 944mb in the middle of GOM with sustained winds only at 85kts. Isaac in 2012 was another classic example of how winds can significantly lag behind pressure drop under loose structure — It was 965mb/70kt.

...but Laura doesn't have "loose structure," at least not anymore.

[ConvergenceZone]

If there are any positives, it looks likes the tropics is calming down for awhile after this storm, Thank Goodness!

[NotoSans]

No SFMR winds above 60kt & flight-level winds are at low 70s in NE quadrant. Looks like it’s still a low-end cat 1 despite falling pressure - needs to see if winds will catch up later.

NHC will probably keep the intensity at 75kt to avoid miscommunication.

[AxaltaRacing24]

If there are any positives, it looks likes the tropics is calming down for awhile after this storm, Thank Goodness!

there's 2 waves coming after this though. and were headed into the peak in 2-3 weeks.

any "calm" is likely only going to last a week.

[LSU Saint]

What are the chances of Houston getting hit now? Any chance this heads a tad west still!

[ConvergenceZone]

All you need is a 5mph increase per every 3 hours, and this will be a major hurricane tomorrow. This should have no problem with 5 mph every 3 hours

[supercane4867]

Ike managed to get down to 944mb in the middle of GOM with sustained winds only at 85kts. Isaac in 2012 was another classic example of how winds can significantly lag behind pressure drop under loose structure — It was 965mb/70kt.

...but Laura doesn't have "loose structure," at least not anymore.

Still relatively loose compared to other intense Gulf storms. It likely won’t stay like this for long but the current lag in wind speeds reported by recon is understandable.

[eastcoastFL]

NHC notes SW shear to impact Laura 6-12 hours prior to landfall.

Thats about 24 hours from now and they also say it should keep her from intensifying more but not weakening. That's scary on its own. She could easily be a serious major 24 hours from now.

[cfisher]

There's a chance it jogs west for a while at this latitude

[ajurcat]

How can y'all remember what storm had what kts with how many mbs at any given time during their formation? I have trouble remembering what I cooked for supper last night! I am so impressed and in awe!