ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FixySLN]

Very interesting reading y’all’s takes on west/north movements. Curious how the west movement stacks up against expectations

Not going to lie, there was a few minutes there where I didn't think the Western Turn was gonna' happen. If it MOVES north again...NOT WOBBLES...There's something funky going down. I'm...worried?...that Laura might do something unsuspecting here.

[HurricaneEdouard]

Matthew was Cat 4 in Haiti if I remember.

Think he’s talking about Irma and Maria of ‘17, Michael of ‘18 and Dorian of ‘19

Maria was a high-end 4 in PR as well. 155 mph. Not that it really matters at that point. But yes Irma was.

Maria was a landfalling Category 5 hurricane; it struck Dominica at that strength, weakened to 4, then restrengthened to 5.

[cfisher]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1298437278054916096

[Hammy]

We've had 3 straight year of category 5 hurricanes, all of them except for Lorenzo made landfall at some point as a category 5

Matthew was Cat 4 in Haiti if I remember.

Think he’s talking about Irma and Maria of ‘17, Michael of ‘18 and Dorian of ‘19

2018-19 seem like they're running together into one year in my memory.

[eastcoastFL]

Very interesting reading y’all’s takes on west/north movements. Curious how the west movement stacks up against expectations

Not going to lie, there was a few minutes there where I didn't think the Western Turn was gonna' happen. If it MOVES north again...NOT WOBBLES...There's something funky going down. I'm...worried?...that Laura might do something unsuspecting here.

I feel that way every time one is headed straight at Florida. Despite know full well that the HP ridge ends at the Bahamas I still stare at it thinking “it’s headed right at me!”. I think it’s natural

[Highteeld]

Rapid deepening right now. Down 1.5 mb in the last 70 minutes.

[eastcoastFL]

Pressure down to around 977.9 mb, dropsonde wind-adjusted

https://i.imgur.com/g8cpzXy.png

Was that a center pass?

[supercane4867]

Hurricane force wind field has expanded quite a lot.

[FLpanhandle91]

Pressure down to around 977.9 mb, dropsonde wind-adjusted

https://i.imgur.com/g8cpzXy.png

Was that a center pass?

Dropsonde.

[KC7NEC]

If any of you have ever heard of the Waffle House Index its now Code Red which means locations in coastal TX/LA are closing.

[AnnularCane]

Wobble watching is a great past time of ours. It still looks wnw to me on this view

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-GM-07-1000x1000.gif?hash=29491

That's an amazing loop. Seeing those colors just pop up like that is mesmerizing.

[Highteeld]

Also down 5.2 mb in the last 2 hour 38 min. Deepening at a rate of around 1.97mb/hr over the last few passes.

[eastcoastFL]

If any of you have ever heard of the Waffle House Index its now Code Red which means locations in coastal TX/LA are closing.

I saw Cantore at a Waffle House in boynton beach. When they close that means it’s serious.

[eastcoastFL]

Also down 5.2 mb in the last 2 hour 38 min. Deepening at a rate of around 1.97mb/hr over the last few passes.

I doubt that rate is sustainable but even at 1mb an hour we’re looking at a 955mb storm tomorrow night. I hope it’s not sustainable. Could it be?

[supercane4867]

Laura is outpacing HWRF intensity by quite a bit. At 03z HWRF has Laura at 986 and she's already sub 980. Has a landfall at 945mb
https://ibb.co/6vhQYfM

HWRF likes to overreact on weak tropical storms by intensifying them into 930-940mb CAT4s but that's about it. In fact it underestimates strong systems just as much as it exaggerates weak ones. None of the HWRF runs have predicted the peak intensities of Michael, Dorian, and Irma before they bombed out to CAT5s.

[eastcoastFL]

Wobble watching is a great past time of ours. It still looks wnw to me on this view

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-GM-07-1000x1000.gif?hash=29491

That's an amazing loop. Seeing those colors just pop up like that is mesmerizing.

It really is beautiful, amazing and terrifying all at once. Look at this one, you can just see the blood red convection fly through the storm and flow right around the center. The evolution of this thing since it left Cuba is something to watch in awe.

[KC7NEC]

If any of you have ever heard of the Waffle House Index its now Code Red which means locations in coastal TX/LA are closing.

I saw Cantore at a Waffle House in boynton beach. When they close that means it’s serious.

It started years ago almost a joke by the FEMA administrator at the time Craig Fugate but has actually been developed and turned into a quasi-offial metric from storm damage or potential severity.

Waffle House Index

[Highteeld]

Also down 5.2 mb in the last 2 hour 38 min. Deepening at a rate of around 1.97mb/hr over the last few passes.

I doubt that rate is sustainable but even at 1mb an hour we’re looking at a 955mb storm tomorrow night. I hope it’s not sustainable. Could it be?

depends on how large the eye is by then. a larger eye is equivalent to a larger column of air within the eyewall that has to be heated to induce pressure falls. therefore, a smaller eye can drop pressure faster. with an eye this large, i wouldn't think so, though

[Keldeo1997]

Dual Outflow channels coming in hot

[NDG]

Not surprising to me.

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1298416933545615360