ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1268514502322118659

[NDG]

What's the furthest south a TC transitioned to extratropical? Maybe Cristobal could break that record as well.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1268481232461062145

Become extra-tropical this far south with no cool air near it, I doubt it.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like the 6z Euro now wants to stall it south of LA at 90 hours or slows down drastically. ridging straight north of

it just is staying south far too long for anything to become of it that far west.

[TheStormExpert]

What's the furthest south a TC transitioned to extratropical? Maybe Cristobal could break that record as well.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1268481232461062145

Become extra-tropical this far south with no cool air near it, I doubt it.

Didn't know if it was possible or not. Thanks for clarifying that!

[jasons2k]

What's the furthest south a TC transitioned to extratropical? Maybe Cristobal could break that record as well.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1268481232461062145

Become extra-tropical this far south with no cool air near it, I doubt it.

The image in Derek's tweet is in the NGOM just before landfall, not down in MX.

[NDG]

What's the furthest south a TC transitioned to extratropical? Maybe Cristobal could break that record as well.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1268481232461062145

Become extra-tropical this far south with no cool air near it, I doubt it.

The image in Derek's tweet is in the NGOM just before landfall, not down in MX.

But even there it will not be interacting with a cold front or cool surface temps, it may look extra-tropical on the GFS forecast but I doubt it will be one, IMO.

[Stormcenter]

I would not get too excited either way about what any
of the models are showing right now in
reference to strength and organization until this thing is
back in the Gulf entirely. We’ve seen these storms do a lot
weird things when they get in central GOM.

[NDG]

looks like the 6z Euro now wants to stall it south of LA at 90 hours or slows down drastically. ridging straight north of

it just is staying south far too long for anything to become of it that far west.

I thought you were lying but you were right, it forecasts a stronger ridging compared to its previous runs.

[crimi481]

Are any models showing possible formation from that big blob coming off n. Yucatan coast? Flooding rains here in SW Florida - lots more on the way

[Aric Dunn]

looks like the 6z Euro now wants to stall it south of LA at 90 hours or slows down drastically. ridging straight north of

it just is staying south far too long for anything to become of it that far west.

I thought you were lying but you were right, it forecasts a stronger ridging compared to its previous runs.

I dont lie lol.. I joke around sometimes.. but make it obvious.. sheesh..

[cycloneye]

Both GFS and ECMWF did a great job forecasting Cristobal to bury well inland. Now let's see how sloppy it gets out to GOM.

[gatorcane]

I agree the models have been stellar with this storm particular the GFS which I have seen has taken some criticism. Let’s see how the rest goes but my feeling is that they have modelled this correctly.

[jaguars_22]

For what its worth the NAM is forecasting it further west towards texas...

[toad strangler]

Both GFS and ECMWF did a great job forecasting Cristobal to bury well inland. Now let's see how sloppy it gets out to GOM.

NHC isn't very hot on it regenerating much. Should be a huge sloppy mess with a TON of moisture flung far out to the East of whatever center there is

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: I agree the models have been stellar with this storm particular the GFS which I have seen has taken some criticism. Let’s see how the rest goes but my feeling is that they have modelled this correctly.

Yes those two did good with the SE dive into Mexico but the Euro is likely too strong in my opinion when it gets to the northern Gulf Coast. I’m siding with the GFS right now, though the NHC has been mentioning that intensity is still questionable due to the fact of it still being over land for the next 24hrs. or so.

[Nimbus]

Are any models showing possible formation from that big blob coming off n. Yucatan coast? Flooding rains here in SW Florida - lots more on the way

Might be some remnant energy from back when we had two distinct low level circulations.
I think I remember one model weakening the mid/upper level gyre enough to allow a second system to spin up and break off a few days ago.
Kind of hard to model but they seem to think there will be stronger ridging late in the forecast that would track the center currently well inland further west once it reemerges.

[jaguars_22]

ICON and NAM both have it more towards texas as of 12z... I wonder if the high will remain in place longer to push it further west?

[crimi481]

Texas? Getting hammered here in SW Florida. All the energy building off N Yucatan - coming my way

[jaguars_22]

Just looking at the center and where the models have it going lately... still no center but yes you will get some good rains

[Kazmit]

12z GFS puts the "center" off the coast of Belize before it heads north to the NE tip of the Yucatan.