ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#481 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:36 pm

999 mbs and not in center yet.

233400 1923N 09228W 9250 00671 9988
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#482 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:38 pm

pressure looks like 997 ish.. FL so far 51kts. SE quad should have the highest winds.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#483 Postby NDG » Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:39 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:pressure looks like 997 ish.. FL so far 51kts. SE quad should have the highest winds.


That's what I'm thinking. Pressure might be even lower.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#484 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:40 pm

NDG wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:pressure looks like 997 ish.. FL so far 51kts. SE quad should have the highest winds.


That's what I'm thinking. Pressure might be even lower.


yeah possibly. SE quad may have 60kt FL winds. average with SFMR around 50 to 55kt.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#485 Postby NDG » Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:42 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
NDG wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:pressure looks like 997 ish.. FL so far 51kts. SE quad should have the highest winds.


That's what I'm thinking. Pressure might be even lower.


yeah possibly. SE quad may have 60kt FL winds. average with SFMR around 50 to 55kt.


Next transmission out should be fun.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#486 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:45 pm

234400 1915N 09222W 9249 00658 9973 +214 +177 339009 011 010 001 00
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#487 Postby NDG » Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:46 pm

997mb so far and not yet on the coc.

234400 1915N 09222W 9249 00658 9973 +214 +177 339009 011 010 001 00
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#488 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:47 pm

interesting the center is even farther ene almost dead middle of the convective ball..
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#489 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:48 pm

Plane still has not reached the center.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#490 Postby NDG » Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:50 pm

It looks like Cristobal has been moving back east again based on the last fixes.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#491 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:51 pm

the 51kt flight level was nearly in rain free in the NW quad.. winds in the East and SE must be at least 10kts higher..
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#492 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:52 pm

NDG wrote:It looks like Cristobal has been moving back east again based on the last fixes.


well that was clear from the radar loops since about 13z .. :P
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#493 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:59 pm

997mb it is.. but man they tricked me.. thought they would fliy though though the east and se quad.. but they turn back sw lol
now we wait. and hope they do more than two passes.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#494 Postby aspen » Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:59 pm

Center looks to be around 19.28N/92.32W
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#495 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:00 pm

Just read the 7pm update, not sure how they figure it is meandering southward.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#496 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:02 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:Just read the 7pm update, not sure how they figure it is meandering southward.


either it was written before this pass.. or they have to be consitant ? idk lol
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#497 Postby NDG » Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:03 pm

CoC is a good 50 miles offshore to be exact, plenty of water to keep strengthening before possibly moving onshore tomorrow if GFS and Euro are correct.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#498 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:08 pm

so from the last center fix. look slike Due east for the last 8 + hours.. not south like the models lol
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#499 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:10 pm

The wind field graphic shows the east turn really well.

Image
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#500 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:14 pm

Yeah, the east drift lasted longer than I anticipated. This has enabled the CoC to stay over open water a bit longer and strengthen this evening. I still think the CoC will come onshore early tomorrow morning somewhere on the Yucatan Peninsula.
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