ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Still keeps firing in the shear gradient.
One major factor that is keeping from tearing this apart is that 355K PV is very low and there is a good ring of UL vorts around this.
Hard to predict what will happen next since GFS is way off on initializing UL conditions and SAL.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

Still keeps firing in the shear gradient.
One major factor that is keeping from tearing this apart is that 355K PV is very low and there is a good ring of UL vorts around this.
Hard to predict what will happen next since GFS is way off on initializing UL conditions and SAL.


https://i.imgur.com/57SJyDN.gif

https://i.imgur.com/IR1ddIU.gif

Also note how clear UL Vorts (355K PV) is along the SE CONUS coast and going into the Bahamas.
96L is pushing back on the Rossby Wave over the Midwest and creating a large ARWB.

[GCANE]

At this point, it looks like outflow is winning over shear.
We'll see how the day progresses.

[GCANE]

TPW is getting thick around Panama.
Joe may tap into that when she gets close to PR.

[GCANE]

Picking up a new infeed from the ITCZ

[GCANE]

Any convection that fires in that dry slot and this puppy will take off.
CAPE is forecast to increase in the area later tonight.
Its holding up a pretty good dryline.

[GCANE]

GFS 3 days out.
Estimated position of Joe and 250mb winds.
A little bit more of a track to the south and its a whole new ball game.
Watch how 96L develops, those little ULLs may not actually be there then.

[abajan]

So that's what gravity waves are! Like Mark, I didn't know what they were, until someone posted an explanation in one of the video's comments. (The clip shows how Josephine looked on the visibles on Tuesday - when it was still 95L.) I don't think I've ever seen them so clearly in any other cyclone.

[xironman]

On the visibles it looks like the new convection is very close to the center. It looked like a goner earlier with decoupling.

[GCANE]

So that's what gravity waves are! Like Mark, I didn't know what they were, until someone posted an explanation in one of the video's comments. (The clip shows how Josephine looked on the visibles on Tuesday - when it was still 95L.) I don't think I've ever seen them so clearly in any other cyclone.

Cool. I didn't notice the waves before.
I need to watch more of Mark's videos.

[GCANE]

Anticyclone has moved to the SW of the CoC.
A more favorable position in terms of lower shear to track into and better ventilation from UL Outflow.

[GCANE]

Solid 500mb vort for 96L.
That'll be a game changer all right.

[sma10]

Solid 500mb vort for 96L.
That'll be a game changer all right.

https://i.imgur.com/YJlNars.gif

What is the game changer? You're not in agreement with the forecast of NW movement, and eventual dissipation?

[GCANE]

Solid 500mb vort for 96L.
That'll be a game changer all right.

https://i.imgur.com/YJlNars.gif

What is the game changer? You're not in agreement with the forecast of NW movement, and eventual dissipation?

Looking less likely.
Especially in light of how bad the models have been doing.

Track has shifted south as compared to 12 hrs ago. Look at the 53W positions. Its about 50 miles south.

[GCANE]

Solid 500mb vort for 96L.
That'll be a game changer all right.

https://i.imgur.com/YJlNars.gif

What is the game changer? You're not in agreement with the forecast of NW movement, and eventual dissipation?

Looking less likely.
Especially in light of how bad the models have been doing.

Track has shifted south as compared to 12 hrs ago. Look at the 53W positions. Its about 50 miles south.

https://i.imgur.com/vBaBmFa.png

https://i.imgur.com/mXA8xOn.png

Might be worth throwing this in as well.
500mb forecast trend.

[wxman57]

I still think it looks pretty poorly-organized. No low-level convergence toward the very weak center. Should open up into a wave tonight or tomorrow morning. I don't see any future for this weak TS.

[GCANE]

Good inflow as reported by the buoy just south of the CoC.
Winds out of the south at 12 knots'

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41040

[wxman57]

A wind blowing away from the very weak center isn't inflow. SW-W wind shear is starting to impact Josephine. It's hours are numbered. NHC's discussion mentions that they're no longer sure it has a closed circulation. I agree. Would such a poorly-defined LLC be enough for an upgrade to a TD or TS?

[Aric Dunn]

Good inflow as reported by the buoy just south of the CoC.
Winds out of the south at 12 knots'

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41040

Yeah good inflow. The low level circulation continues to increase in size something the models showed doing the opposite. Very unlikely this opens up as per the models.

will likely Pulse large convective burst throughout its passage of the shear axis.

Models have been persistent that dry air would be its demise. That scenario is becoming less likely by the hour.