ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dexterlabio]

What's the storm surge outlook if Laura heads into the TX/LA border as a Cat4? And will the storm surge be less significant or worse if the eye goes closer to Houston instead?

[sponger]

Speaking of Patricia, can anyone believe the damage was 500 million dollars?

[DestinHurricane]

What's the storm surge outlook if Laura heads into the TX/LA border as a Cat4? And will the storm surge be less significant or worse if the eye goes closer to Houston instead?

NHC is saying 9-14 ft right now. Cat 4 could be higher than that. I doubt landfall location would affect how high max surge is in this situation, just location obviously.

[Highteeld]

I'm starting to wonder if we will ever see the eye or if it will always be covered up with clouds up until landfall.....

No. I would only expect this look to last at most another 6 hours.

[TheStormExpert]

Is that even possible for the water to be cooled from Hannah at this point? I don’t doubt the waters are cooler but I find it hard to believe it’s from Hannah.

Eric Webb says it is.



https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1298424415080910851

I see that but I’d like some other Mets opinion on it. I asked a few weeks ago if something like that was possible and I was told no for a smaller weaker hurricane. Basically they said it would have to be a big major that was in the same area for a while to have a long term effect beyond a week or so.

He even said this shouldn’t effect landfall strength as Laura is moving fast enough.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1298424029821509638

[Highteeld]

[DocB]

You know what sucks? That we have to write....

“Foregoing the impacts to humans and property...”...

And STILL get shamed for voicing your fascination with Mother Nature’s possibilities.

Get a grip, some of you. Most of the folks are here in this forum because they are fascinated with the power and potential of weather.

That does not mean they want people to get hurt. It doesn’t mean they are indifferent to economic losses. It just means they are fascinated.

My fascination began in 1983 when Hurricane Alecia hit Houston when I lived in Seabrook as a teenager. I recall very clearly the day after the storm wading through chest deep water with my father trying to reclaim some of our belongings the next day after Alecia hit.

Oddly, I was never scared. But in awe. And that awe began my fascination with these storms. I have tracked them now for 37 years.

So please don’t shame people for remarking about the awesome power of or possibilities of nature.

It’s not wishing bad things upon others. It’s just watching in amazement.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Beef Stew]

Laura looks like a standard T5.0 on the Dvorak scale now, so wouldn’t be surprised to see recon finding category 2 winds. Once the eye begins to clear out, intensification would be more rapid. Personally won’t rule out a category 4 peak near the Gulf coast.

In my unprofessional opinion I too don't believe CAT 4 is that far of a reach for Laura. I think something similar to Harvey in terms of wind and pressure (130 mph, 937 mbar) is a realistic near-ceiling scenario for Laura due to the time left and the size of the developing eye. Of course 'ceiling' is a tricky word to use when talking about a rapidly developing gulf system...

[Texashawk]

https://i.imgur.com/8xRkl7V.png

Just out of curiosity, what viewer/service are you using for this data?

[cfisher]

Did the center or Laura just jump west or is that just dry air?

[Blinhart]

What's the storm surge outlook if Laura heads into the TX/LA border as a Cat4? And will the storm surge be less significant or worse if the eye goes closer to Houston instead?

NHC is saying 9-14 ft right now. Cat 4 could be higher than that. I doubt landfall location would affect how high max surge is in this situation, just location obviously.

I agree location just would change what areas are affected, now about the surge, I think it would be about a foot for every 10 mph (if I remember correctly).

[Blinhart]

Did the center or Laura just jump west or is that just dry air?

I don't think it has jumped West at all, I think we can't see the true center yet so we are eyeballing different areas of the storm, the storms are fluctuating in size around the area so we can't actually tell the center.

[eastcoastFL]

Eric Webb says it is.



https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1298424415080910851

I see that but I’d like some other Mets opinion on it. I asked a few weeks ago if something like that was possible and I was told no for a smaller weaker hurricane. Basically they said it would have to be a big major that was in the same area for a while to have a long term effect beyond a week or so.

He even said this shouldn’t effect landfall strength as Laura is moving fast enough.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1298424029821509638

That’s what I missed. So he’s saying it’s still cooler below the surface not at the surface as well so it would take Laura’s own upwelling of those deep colder waters to inhibit her progress

[catskillfire51]

looking good to me

[Highteeld]

https://i.imgur.com/8xRkl7V.png

Just out of curiosity, what viewer/service are you using for this data?

I know somebody in the weather service who provides them to me when possible.

[cfisher]

Did the center or Laura just jump west or is that just dry air?

I don't think it has jumped West at all, I think we can't see the true center yet so we are eyeballing different areas of the storm, the storms are fluctuating in size around the area so we can't actually tell the center.

Gotcha

[Highteeld]

Laura looks like a standard T5.0 on the Dvorak scale now, so wouldn’t be surprised to see recon finding category 2 winds. Once the eye begins to clear out, intensification would be more rapid. Personally won’t rule out a category 4 peak near the Gulf coast.

In my unprofessional opinion I too don't believe CAT 4 is that far of a reach for Laura. I think something similar to Harvey in terms of wind and pressure (130 mph, 937 mbar) is a realistic near-ceiling scenario for Laura due to the time left and the size of the developing eye. Of course 'ceiling' is a tricky word to use when talking about a rapidly developing gulf system...

Unfortunately both the HMON and HWRF are now seeing a much more intense system at landfall. Probably overdone, but frightening model runs.

[cheezyWXguy]

Did the center or Laura just jump west or is that just dry air?

I don't think it has jumped West at all, I think we can't see the true center yet so we are eyeballing different areas of the storm, the storms are fluctuating in size around the area so we can't actually tell the center.

Agreed it hasn’t generally jumped west, it’s been moving wnw. That big blob earlier was actually more of a burst on the east side than a true cdo. However, the bursts currently going around are likely surrounding the true center

[HurricaneEdouard]

What's stopping this from bombing out like Patricia once the eye clears?

land. That kind of intensification within this amount of time is not really physically possible. It would need more time over water.

Well, that kind of intensification within this amount of time (24 hours) is physically possible for a storm generally speaking; Patricia and Wilma intensified from tropical storms to the most intense hurricanes within their respective basins in 24 hours, and explosive intensification just offshore is possible (Humberto in 2007 off Texas would have likely been a major hurricane if it had a few more hours over water, and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane intensified at rates comparable to Patricia and Wilma as it struck the Florida Keys).

What's stopping Laura from intensifying at that rate is simply that such intensification requires conditions so perfect it is exceedingly rare, and thus exceedingly improbable; insanely high SSTs and going deep down, essentially no vertical wind shear, high atmospheric moisture, trough amplification (in Patricia), possibly a specific kind of initial disturbance (Wilma formed from an unusually large monsoon circulation, Patricia from a large cyclonic gyre), etc etc, and the warning signs were fairly clear ahead of time if you knew what to look for (extremely high SHIPS rapid intensification probabilities, insanely cold cloudtops even at weak intensity, a tiny core and pinhole eye). Laura is structurally very different (no tiny core or pinhole eye developing here - indeed the HWRF, which has been remarkably good at forecasting short-term structure, displays a rather large eye), the cloudtops are much warmer, there is some light to moderate vertical shear (pockets of 25 knots in some spots offshore) to contend with, a little dry air was entrained earlier, the waters are cooler and the warmth doesn't extend so deep, the SHIPS rapid intensification probabilities are considerably lower, etc etc.

Laura has sufficient ingredients, so to speak, to rapidly intensify (which I do expect), possibly even explosively intensify (although I doubt it), but explosive deepening on the literally unprecedented scale of Patricia can be safely ruled out. I wouldn't altogether rule out a Category 5, though (although I think 4 is more probable).

[TheStormExpert]

I see that but I’d like some other Mets opinion on it. I asked a few weeks ago if something like that was possible and I was told no for a smaller weaker hurricane. Basically they said it would have to be a big major that was in the same area for a while to have a long term effect beyond a week or so.

He even said this shouldn’t effect landfall strength as Laura is moving fast enough.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1298424029821509638

That’s what I missed. So he’s saying it’s still cooler below the surface not at the surface as well so it would take Laura’s own upwelling of those deep colder waters to inhibit her progress

Yes, chances are it shouldn’t have a problem.