ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

Any good signs of a weaker Laura now to landfall?

That's true, we've seen it time and time again that when a storm's strength maximizes earlier rather than later, it tends to lose strength a few hours prior to going on shore. I've seen that over and over again........I think 115 at landfall is a good estimate, but it might get as high as 125 at peak early afternoon tomorrow...

[Steve]

Any good signs of a weaker Laura now to landfall?

Not really. 930-945 looks like the range and landfall in 24 hours. Time to watch the mesoscale models.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 260605
REPNT2

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132020
A. 26/05:08:50Z
B. 25.38 DEG N 089.98 DEG W
C. 700 MB 2922 M
D. 979 MB
E. 120 DEG 4 KT
F. OPEN E
G. C20
H. 85 KT
I. 078 DEG 26 NM 05:01:00Z
J. 157 DEG 91 KT
K. 079 DEG 30 NM 05:00:00Z
L. 86 KT
M. 046 DEG 28 NM 05:20:00Z
N. 140 DEG 104 KT
O. 046 DEG 33 NM 05:21:30Z
P. 12 C / 3049 M
Q. 15 C / 3054 M
R. 10 C / NA
S. 1234 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 NM
U. AF309
1913A LAURA OB 31
MAX FL WIND 104 KT 046 / 33 NM 05:21:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 047 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR

A VDM came out: the 104 kt FL and 85 kt SFMR were the basis for the 90 kt intensity.

[EquusStorm]

Just six MPH shy of a major, 24 hours before landfall... huh, didn't see that coming quite so fast.

[cfisher]

We're about to see a massive pressure drop

[jaxfladude]

Why such a "big" jump in max sustained winds...recon data??
Edit: Did not see earlier posts above this

[EquusStorm]

I gotta sleep but I really don't want to because the satellite picture the moment I wake up is probably going to be pretty startling; this has an absolutely classic look and is about to get really dangerous if no unexpected wrenches get thrown into the gears.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1298508979488858112

[Keldeo1997]

What's concerning is that we have a borderline Major Hurricane with a Open Eyewall

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1298508774379069441

[EquusStorm]

Some eerie parallels with Michael there if we keep getting rapid deepening without a fully closed eyewall, iirc Michael only really fully closed off after it became a major

[Highteeld]

Euro flirts with CAT 5 near landfall

[Texashawk]

This thing is absolutely exploding before our eyes. As a Houstonian, it would be nice to see that big NW jog start soon - it's spinning a little far south for comfort.

[Sanibel]

This is weird...Winds are jumping before pressure...

Maybe they missed the center?...

Big Camille-like hurricane taking shape and owns the Gulf...

Get out of its way!...

[tropicwatch]

Looks like Laura's eye is starting to make an appearance.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=80&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=20200826064020&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=eumetsat_nighttime_microphysics&x=7188.875&y=5597

[Highteeld]

Any good signs of a weaker Laura now to landfall?

Hell no.

[AxaltaRacing24]

This thing is absolutely exploding before our eyes. As a Houstonian, it would be nice to see that big NW jog start soon - it's spinning a little far south for comfort.

it literally hasn't stopped deepening since it has left cuba. it was 60-65mph just 24 hours ago.

[KWT]

Some eerie parallels with Michael there if we keep getting rapid deepening without a fully closed eyewall, iirc Michael only really fully closed off after it became a major

I watched some loops of Michael yesterday. Even as a low end 4 the east eyewall was barely closed. It was only as it approached 5 that it got a thick classic eyewall all around.

[Highteeld]

This feels a lot like Michael

[Sanibel]

I think somehow this one has more muscle than Michael...