ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

What is the record for most powerful storm (lowest pressure and highest wind) to hit West of the Mississippi?

If I recall I saw somewhere no Cat 5 has mad landfall this far West ever.

Anita in 1977 was Cat 5 at landfall. https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2017/09/19/40th-anniversary-of-hurricane-anita/

Strongest in the US west of the Mississippi was the Indianiola hurricane in 1886 was 135kt.

[cfisher]

What's the strongest US landfalling hurricane ever? I think Laura has a shot at that record..

[Highteeld]

If this thing manages to just warm the eye -- not even positive territory, it will be be a solid Cat.4 with these cloud tops.
https://i.imgur.com/9tN0pA0.png

One more blast of convection that rotates upshear and we're there in no time.

[meriland29]

What's the strongest US landfalling hurricane ever? I think Laura has a shot at that record..

Camille in the 60's. 190mph max when she hit MS. Let's not get too hasty about Laura, I definitely don't doubt her but I am not going to jump to the worst case, worst in history scenario yet. She is looking pretty angry atm right now, will be a long day and some change keeping an eye on her.

[meriland29]

If this thing manages to just warm the eye -- not even positive territory, it will be be a solid Cat.4 with these cloud tops.
https://i.imgur.com/9tN0pA0.png

One more blast of convection that rotates upshear and we're there in no time.

Can she even boost that quickly? from a Cat 1 to a Cat 4 in the span of 1 advisory? I've seen jumps but by like, 10, maybe 15mph per advisory...just wondering

[Highteeld]

If this thing manages to just warm the eye -- not even positive territory, it will be be a solid Cat.4 with these cloud tops.
https://i.imgur.com/9tN0pA0.png

One more blast of convection that rotates upshear and we're there in no time.

Can she even boost that quickly? from a Cat 1 to a Cat 4 in the span of 1 advisory? I've seen jumps but by like, 10, maybe 15mph per advisory...just wondering

cat 4 by 12z would be possible, yes

[kevin]

What's the strongest US landfalling hurricane ever? I think Laura has a shot at that record..

Here's a list of the NHC of strongest landfalling US hurricanes between 1851 and 2004. Not sure why it stops at 2004. If you want a list all the way up until now, use the wikipedia link. Either way in terms of pressure the Labor Day hurricane was the most intense with 892 mbar.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastint.shtml

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template: ... hurricanes

[cfisher]

What's the strongest US landfalling hurricane ever? I think Laura has a shot at that record..

Camille in the 60's. 190mph max when she hit MS. Let's not get too hasty about Laura, I definitely don't doubt her but I am not going to jump to the worst case, worst in history scenario yet. She is looking pretty angry atm right now, will be a long day and some change keeping an eye on her.

The waters off the LA coast support 910/150kt so that might be a difficult record to break.

[USTropics]

100 frames (about the past 6 hours) of Hurricane Laura (large file, could take a bit to load). Truly amazing from a scientific perspective but highlights what is likely to be a devastating situation unfolding 24-48 hours from now.

[Ubuntwo]

What's the strongest US landfalling hurricane ever? I think Laura has a shot at that record..

Camille in the 60's. 190mph max when she hit MS. Let's not get too hasty about Laura, I definitely don't doubt her but I am not going to jump to the worst case, worst in history scenario yet. She is looking pretty angry atm right now, will be a long day and some change keeping an eye on her.

Camille was brought down to 175 in reanalysis. Labor day has the record now, 185/892mb, which is well beyond Laura's maximum potential intensity

[HurricaneEdouard]

If this thing manages to just warm the eye -- not even positive territory, it will be be a solid Cat.4 with these cloud tops.
https://i.imgur.com/9tN0pA0.png

One more blast of convection that rotates upshear and we're there in no time.

Can she even boost that quickly? from a Cat 1 to a Cat 4 in the span of 1 advisory? I've seen jumps but by like, 10, maybe 15mph per advisory...just wondering

Laura is a Category 2 right now, but intensification from a Category 1 to a Category 4 in the span of six hours (between full advisories) or from a Category 2 to a Category 4 in the span of three hours (between intermediary advisories) is possible; Wilma intensified at that rate. Charley jumped from a Category 2 to a Category 4 between the 15Z and the 18Z advisories, as well. Laura won't intensify at Wilma's rate, of course, but it is physically possible.

[cfisher]

Michael went from 120 mph to 150 between advisories.

[USTropics]

At the mid-upper levels, if this hot tower (blue) can rotate all the way around and close this off, it's really the only thing that is hold Laura back at this stage. Mid-level flow has relaxed, it's past the cold wake in the GOM, and RH values are optimal.

[HurricaneEdouard]

What's the strongest US landfalling hurricane ever? I think Laura has a shot at that record..

Not at all; let's not hypecast. The Labor Day Hurricane had a central pressure of 892mb and maximum sustained winds officially but conservatively estimated at 185mph by the HURDAT reanalysis project (but likely in excess of 200mph, like Patricia) at landfall in the Florida Keys. The SSTs ahead (Maximum Potential Intensity) and the atmospheric conditions do not physically allow Laura to attain this intensity before landfall.

[Highteeld]

Titanic storm

[cfisher]

The track seems west of guidance at this point, no?

[TexasSam]

I haven't looked in a while. Laura covers so much area now. Huge even.

[cfisher]

I have a feeling the cone will shift west in the next advisory.

[Texashawk]

The track seems west of guidance at this point, no?

Very much so. It's basically been taking a 285 course for the last several hours, at least by visual. Hard to know for sure without recon fixes but if that 'eye' feature is anything to go by it's been hugging the 26 degree line for quite a while.

[Kingarabian]

Interestingly Laura's track is still in line with the Canadians... Note this graph doesn't show the 00z run yet.