ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PavelGaborik10]

Looks like they're going in right now, AF has an extrapolated surface pressure of 968.6 mbar on tropicalatlantic.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... _page=hdob

That is actually quite a bit higher than I was anticipating.

I didn't think it was going to be super low, once the eye really clears out (which is happening now) then we will see that pressure probably lurch down 10-20mbs in 3-6hrs.

I didn't either. I did however, expect it to be in the lower 960's.

[supercane4867]

Reminds me of Michael before its eye cleared out.

[HurricaneEdouard]

Enough data to bump this up to 100kts next intermediate advisory.

How? Both SFMR and flight-level winds indicate 95 knots.

[cfisher]

Lightning firing in the inner core now. Don't see an ERC happening near-term

[PavelGaborik10]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1298562111136845824?s=19

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/745830682177306664/748122276158767186/unknown.png

What?

Has it even fully closed off its initial eyewall? I don't think there's time for a full EWRC.

[supercane4867]

Center dropsonde 969mb with 3kt winds.

[Kingarabian]

It could've closed off an eyewall a few hours ago. There are moats on MW imagery. Just because the eye didn't clear yet doesn't mean there hasn't been an established eyewall prior.

[hurricaneCW]

Enough data to bump this up to 100kts next intermediate advisory.

How? Both SFMR and flight-level winds indicate 95 knots.

Given continued satellite improvement and the likelihood of even higher winds, I don't see why they wouldn't upgrade it.

[GCANE]

VDM
969 mb
Closed Oval Eye

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Last few frames, the eye already looks different.

[cfisher]

It's about to pop off

[Kingarabian]

ADT Raw numbers taking off:

2020AUG26 090000 4.4 975.1 74.6 4.4 4.8 7.1 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -31.16 -76.85 EYE -99 IR 10.6 26.10 90.70 FCST GOES16 35.1
2020AUG26 093000 4.5 973.3 77.0 4.5 4.8 7.1 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -17.58 -76.22 EYE/P -99 IR 10.6 26.18 90.79 FCST GOES16 35.2
2020AUG26 100000 4.7 969.5 82.2 4.7 5.8 6.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -38.16 -75.27 EYE -99 IR 10.6 26.20 90.94 SPRL GOES16 35.3

[shiny-pebble]

Eye will be cleared out soon it looks like

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[LSU Saint]

Drizzling in Houston currently. Looks like we narrowly escaped a bad one. Prayers sent to those at the border.

[KWT]

Drizzling in Houston currently. Looks like we narrowly escaped a bad one. Prayers sent to those at the border.

Your still close enough to the possible center that I wouldn't rest easy. Wouldn't need a huge west shift to bring hurricane force winds back into your region, especially if it does undergo an EWRC before landfall which will spread the winds out more.

[PavelGaborik10]

Lightning firing in the inner core now. Don't see an ERC happening near-term

There's no time for an EWRC to occur. She literally just finished closing off her eyewall within the past couple of hours.

Derek is wrong here.

[supercane4867]

[GCANE]

Drop at 700mb showed high relative humidity.
Given the radar image and plateau in FL winds, could be an EWRC.
They are flying at 700mb, 10K ft
EWRC's occur early in RI TCs.

[Kingarabian]

Lightning firing in the inner core now. Don't see an ERC happening near-term

There's no time for an EWRC to occur. She literally just finished closing off her eyewall within the past couple of hours.

Derek is wrong here.

That's enough time for an ERC. EPAC systems do this all the time. This is the worst possible time for the system to do an ERC though. Will allow it to expand its wind field and give it enough to recover.

[HurricaneEdouard]

This is why we don't question the NHC; they nailed their intensity estimate. Recon's findings, in terms of pressure (both 968.6mb extrapolated from flight level and 969mb from a dropsonde), flight-level winds and SFMR data, support a 969mb, 110mph Category 2 hurricane. I have no doubt it will be much stronger soon enough, now that it's closed off its eye.