ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

okay, I better run and get my glasses because that seriously does appear as a shallow eye feature

[Aric Dunn]

okay, I better run and get my glasses because that seriously does appear as a shallow eye feature

that is the center lol..

[gfsperpendicular]

okay, I better run and get my glasses because that seriously does appear as a shallow eye feature

Lol I see it too! If you look at the last few vis frames you can see how a ring of hot towers formed near the center of the storm and then rotated around it for a bit.

But after all, it is a 45 mph storm.

[Aric Dunn]

There is definitely some odd northerly mid level shear.. easily noticable on IR. if that goes away it will have a easier time.

[aspen]

There is definitely some odd northerly mid level shear.. easily noticable on IR. if that goes away it will have a easier time.

I believe that’s because of the trough coming in. Levi mentioned it in his latest video.

[floridasun78]

all cloud been pull to ne north gulf and west are clear

[AJC3]

There is definitely some odd northerly mid level shear.. easily noticable on IR. if that goes away it will have a easier time.

It looks to me like the mid level reflection of the short wave trough over OK/TX is dropping SE and amplifying the downstream positive-tilt ridge over the NW GOMEX. With the ridge amplifying, winds on its east side (over the central GOMEX) are veering to north and starting to impinge on the mid level circulation of Cristobal. Not a whole lot, but enough to be noticeable on water vapor imagery.

[Aric Dunn]

last radar loop for the day. a 12 hour loop of our little friend.

still just drifting to the east.

[aspen]

The NHC’s new forecast track has a really sharp turn to the SE/SSE soon...I don’t really see that happening with Cristobal’s current motion. We could see it hug the coast and not fully go onto land.

[jasons2k]

I believe tonight isn't really the night for late-night model watching to see what this is going to do. Too early. Probably tomorrow night or Thursday night will be the time to stay up late to figure this one out.

[1900hurricane]

There is definitely some odd northerly mid level shear.. easily noticable on IR. if that goes away it will have a easier time.

I believe that’s because of the trough coming in. Levi mentioned it in his latest video.

Yep, this. You can see it both on WV and mid-level analyses.

[Hurricane Mike]

I'm surprised that the NHC is so bullish about Cristobal actually making landfall in Mexico. It's obviously very, extremely possible, but they seem almost certain. With the center moving at 1 mph, drifting and stalling, I'm not sure I'd be so bullish about a landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

So wait. in no way is a "blend" of the measured data lower than the average, mean, medium , max and min and pretty much all other combinations..
lol


"52 kt and peak
SFMR winds of 45-47 kt. An automated Mexican weather station on an
elevated offshore platform has measured slightly stronger winds than
the SFMR, but a blend of these data support an initial intensity of
45 kt."

should be 50kts. lol

oh and 12 hours later it still is not moving south like the models or the forecast track.. but hey.. all good.

[ConvergenceZone]

For some reason I was thinking the forecast for Cristobal was going to be much more ominous that it is, and then I forget it's only the first part of June, so I forget that any tropical disturbance in the Gulf in June is pretty significant....it should still be a pretty big rain-maker though, let's just hope it doesn't move slow enough to cause some flooding...

[1900hurricane]

So wait. in no way is a "blend" of the measured data lower than the average, mean, medium , max and min and pretty much all other combinations..
lol


"52 kt and peak
SFMR winds of 45-47 kt. An automated Mexican weather station on an
elevated offshore platform has measured slightly stronger winds than
the SFMR, but a blend of these data support an initial intensity of
45 kt."

should be 50kts. lol

oh and 12 hours later it still is not moving south like the models or the forecast track.. but hey.. all good.

Standard reductions established by Franklin, Black, & Valde from 925 mb is 0.75. Given flight level winds of only 52 kt, reductions are only good for about 40 kt. SFMR is a little higher, which seems to be the main basis of the NHC estimate to me. Elevated offshore platforms are just that: elevated, so those would need to be reduced from whatever elevation they are as well to come up with a 10 m equivalent. 45 kt looks very reasonable to me.

[Astromanía]

It will be interesting if there's anything left of this storm once it emerges back out to sea(after the landfall). It seems like it's predicted to be over land for a decent amount of time. It will be interesting to see if it's able to maintain depression status or be a open wave once it re-merges into the gulf...

It's got a vigorous circulation so as long as it avoids mountains it will do just fine. It's developed quite nicely with part of the circulation over land

There are not near mountains, the nearest mountains are in Chiapas. Yucatán península is a very flat region with almost no height so tropical cyclones tend to maintein their strenght or they weaken a little while moving over there. No way this Will be affected by land after making landfall in Campeche

[Yellow Evan]

For some reason I was thinking the forecast for Cristobal was going to be much more ominous that it is, and then I forget it's only the first part of June, so I forget that any tropical disturbance in the Gulf in June is pretty significant....it should still be a pretty big rain-maker though, let's just hope it doesn't move slow enough to cause some flooding...

I'd be careful. Depending how favorable conditions are in the Gulf of Mexico and how much this interacts with land, I could see this becoming stronger than one may expect for this time of year.

[Ubuntwo]

saved sat loop

[Hurricane Mike]

We have quite a healthy looking tropical storm tonight.

[Blinhart]

Are there any massive Solar storms coming towards us in the next few days???? Those would could possibly effect this system and make it stronger.