ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

west winds , SW winds, SE winds..

Closed circ..

they also are fly very low so they wont be doing a center pass or going in to heavy convection unless they gain some altitude.

Disagree. Nothing indicates a well-defined LLC. No real circulation, nothing organized. Where would you put this center? I'd classify it as a tropical wave with 25-30 kt winds (recon hasn't finished the investigation on the north side, though), only in a small area of squalls. Otherwise, 5-15 kt winds. I think the NHC will gently step back from a forecast of strengthening for the next 24-36 hrs to stating it has a poorly-defined circulation with no strengthening predicted. With no change by tomorrow, they'll call it post-tropical.

[floridasun78]

wxman vs Aric let see who right wxman say strong tropical wave Aric say tropical storm

[GCANE]

Outflow also improving north of the CoC.

[Aric Dunn]

wxman vs Aric let see who right wxman say strong tropical wave Aric say tropical storm

if it has TS winds.. remains to be seen.

but the circ is closed.

[Ubuntwo]

west winds , SW winds, SE winds..

Closed circ..

they also are fly very low so they wont be doing a center pass or going in to heavy convection unless they gain some altitude.

Disagree. Nothing indicates a well-defined LLC. No real circulation, nothing organized. Where would you put this center? I'd classify it as a tropical wave with 25-30 kt winds (recon hasn't finished the investigation on the north side, though), only in a small area of squalls. Otherwise, 5-15 kt winds. I think the NHC will gently step back from a forecast of strengthening for the next 24-36 hrs to stating it has a poorly-defined circulation with no strengthening predicted. With no change by tomorrow, they'll call it post-tropical.

They've pretty much already backed down on strengthening. 40kt peak fcst.

[Aric Dunn]

also looks like its still a TS per recon.

not even in the deep convection either

182300 1708N 05358W 9250 00777 0117 +199 +080 138031 035 030 000 03
182330 1710N 05358W 9251 00775 0118 +196 +077 134035 036 031 000 03
182400 1712N 05358W 9245 00783 0117 +202 +074 134034 035 032 001 03
182430 1714N 05358W 9247 00781 0118 +201 +073 133034 035 031 002 03
182500 1716N 05359W 9240 00788 0117 +204 +073 132035 035 032 003 00
182530 1718N 05359W 9249 00783 0117 +212 +074 131034 035 033 001 00
182600 1720N 05359W 9249 00783 0117 +215 +075 131035 035 032 000 00

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely still a TS. Still not in the deep convection..

183100 1740N 05400W 9250 00783 0123 +205 +087 116038 039 035 002 00
183130 1742N 05400W 9265 00768 0122 +204 +084 118039 040 035 002 00
183200 1744N 05400W 9244 00788 0120 +207 +082 117038 039 033 001 00
183230 1746N 05400W 9247 00788 0121 +206 +080 119039 040 032 000 00
183300 1748N 05400W 9248 00788 0123 +205 +081 118040 041 031 000 00
183330 1749N 05400W 9249 00786 0123 +205 +082 118041 041 030 000 03
183400 1751N 05401W 9250 00784 0122 +209 +083 116040 041 031 000 00
183430 1753N 05401W 9248 00786 0121 +210 +084 114040 040 032 001 03
183500 1755N 05401W 9248 00788 0122 +211 +085 113039 040 031 000 00
183530 1756N 05401W 9246 00788 0120 +216 +085 110039 040 031 000 03
183600 1757N 05403W 9248 00786 0121 +213 +086 108038 040 /// /// 03

[Aric Dunn]

They are still avoiding the heavy convection. so these winds are lower than what the actual intensity is.

[floridasun78]

wxman vs Aric let see who right wxman say strong tropical wave Aric say tropical storm

if it has TS winds.. remains to be seen.

but the circ is closed.

i see it have ts wind of 40mph

[Aric Dunn]

Recon confirming again it is quite closed.. zero doubt. Still a TS with 40 to 45mph winds outside the convection.. in the deep convection it could be up to 50mph.

[Aric Dunn]

pressure 1004 MB

[CyclonicFury]

Recon is quite a surprise. The circulation still appears to be well-defined with a central pressure around 1004 mb, and it is quite a bit farther north than estimated at the 11am EDT advisory (near 17.6N). Some TS force SFMR readings NE of the center.

[Aric Dunn]

And there you go.. Closed well defined TS

hopefully, they gain some altitude and fly through the deep convection and find those 50mph winds..

[GCANE]

About 85 miles north of forecast track

[BYG Jacob]

Aric wins

[GCANE]

Aric wins

A recurring theme

[Aric Dunn]

Also a reminder that ASCAT often does not do all that well a lot of times..

it is only a tool.

[GCANE]

Interesting that flight-level winds were lower than surface winds flying along the south-flank of that high-helicity tower.
They are at 925mb.
Must be a very strong downdraft

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting that flight-level winds were lower than surface winds flying along the south-flank of that high-helicity tower.
They are at 925mb.
Must be a very strong downdraft

https://i.imgur.com/f4V0oDL.png

They were flying mostly in low convection to clear air. so that makes sense.

[GCANE]

Wonder if they hang around much longer.
Its Friday afternoon in the Carib.
First round on me.