ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Steve]

I think Levi Cowan said shear would not be that bad once it got in to the Gulf. Correct me if I am wrong.

Even if there wasn't shear (which there will be) you still have continental dry air that will entrained into the storm from the NW.

But if it is a tighter storm and not so broad won't that help keep the dry air from being entrained into the storm. Just trying to learn all the ends and outs. Sorry if it is a stupid question. Just wondering.

That's actually a legit question. Usually but it depends. If it's super diffuse, it's going to have lots of dry slots anyway. Stronger storms usually work that through the circulation and get expelled out the top of the storm.

[bella_may]

HMON and HWRF both slightly stronger so far

[bella_may]

HWRF goes into SELA as a 990MB storm. Big east shift from their last run

[Steve]

HWRF goes into SELA as a 990MB storm. Big east shift from their last run

Looks to me like around Terrebonne Parish so SCLA @ 989. But it's really fast - that's a Sunday AM landfall. HWRF has been all over the map from dropping down to 13N to being devoid of convection, from being too fast. IDK. Some years and some storms it's pretty good. Other times it can be crappy.

HMON landfalls Sunday Night in the Atchafalaya Basin around West Cote Blanche Bay

[Aric Dunn]

18z euro looking more like a decent model run.. initilized good and inline with current motion. is back offshore by tomorrow morning on the west side of the Yucatan to reformoation.

[PTrackerLA]

18z euro looking more like a decent model run.. initilized good and inline with current motion. is back offshore by tomorrow morning on the west side of the Yucatan to reformoation.

Vorticity is weaker and much looser organized than previous runs. This run seems to be backing up from strong TS or cat 1 potential

[Aric Dunn]

18z euro looking more like a decent model run.. initilized good and inline with current motion. is back offshore by tomorrow morning on the west side of the Yucatan to reformoation.

Vorticity is weaker and much looser organized than previous runs. This run seems to be backing up from strong TS or cat 1 potential

I am not worried about intensity. I have been waiting for a reasonable run from one of the models. this is a good start.. lol

[PTrackerLA]

Lowest pressure of 18z euro run is 993mb and shifts east to near Houma for landfall.

Side note: Since last season when I started watching 18z euro runs I've noticed the 06z and 18z runs tend to go a bit "rogue" compared to the main 00z and 12z. The 18z run on Tuesday suddenly showed a strong hurricane in the southern gulf when the Euro had already given up on avoiding a Mexican landfall. The 00z run following matched the 12z run that day much more closely. Just seems something is a bit off on the the intermediate runs, maybe that's why I never see the NHC or local forecasters mention/show it.

[PTrackerLA]

18z euro looking more like a decent model run.. initilized good and inline with current motion. is back offshore by tomorrow morning on the west side of the Yucatan to reformoation.

Vorticity is weaker and much looser organized than previous runs. This run seems to be backing up from strong TS or cat 1 potential

I am not worried about intensity. I have been waiting for a reasonable run from one of the models. this is a good start.. lol

The run definitely more closely resembles the GFS and CMC which would make more sense...a loosely organized and broad tropical storm. It is June 4th after all .

[stormlover2013]

18z sucks

[PTrackerLA]

Strongest 18z Euro ensemble member is 982mb. Good news that the 950's and 960's mixed in the ensembles runs are long gone.

[Steve]

I lost enough money on watching horse races, so back to the models. NAM is running now and has Cristobal emerging the NC tip of the Yucatan at 1000mb around 6pm tomorrow evening. It gets to the coast before that, but it has the low halfway on and halfway off at that point. So that's a benchmark for the NAM tomorrow afternoon.

[Steve]

And the NAM is the first to throw a nightly curveball. haha. Yeah, as always, it's the NAM. But it's like WNW of the Yucatan tip at 996mb at 34 hours (Saturday 5am Central). I lost all my links forever ago to the early and late cycle guidance and all, but this is a new move for the NAM. I don't think it was this far west at that latitude in recent prior runs. With the caveat that 23N is still essentially out of the NAM's range, maybe it's wanting to bring Texas back in play or else it will gradually curve in Cristobal NNW into the SWLA Coast?

[Steve]

NAM mostly a dud circulation at 63 hours appearing to move NNW and remaining at 996mb.

[sphelps8681]

And the NAM is the first to throw a nightly curveball. haha. Yeah, as always, it's the NAM. But it's like WNW of the Yucatan tip at 996mb at 34 hours (Saturday 5am Central). I lost all my links forever ago to the early and late cycle guidance and all, but this is a new move for the NAM. I don't think it was this far west at that latitude in recent prior runs. With the caveat that 23N is still essentially out of the NAM's range, maybe it's wanting to bring Texas back in play or else it will gradually curve in Cristobal NNW into the SWLA Coast?

Well SWLA coast is just over an hour from me. So that might not be to good. But not like it was when Rita, Ike or Harvey. So grateful for that.

[Steve]

And the NAM is the first to throw a nightly curveball. haha. Yeah, as always, it's the NAM. But it's like WNW of the Yucatan tip at 996mb at 34 hours (Saturday 5am Central). I lost all my links forever ago to the early and late cycle guidance and all, but this is a new move for the NAM. I don't think it was this far west at that latitude in recent prior runs. With the caveat that 23N is still essentially out of the NAM's range, maybe it's wanting to bring Texas back in play or else it will gradually curve in Cristobal NNW into the SWLA Coast?

Well SWLA coast is just over an hour from me. So that might not be to good. But not like it was when Rita, Ike or Harvey. So grateful for that.

It ends up landfalling south of Houma Sunday night near Cocodrie & Dulac around midnight as a 997 with a whimper, though the western panhandle, Boothville/Venice, just SE of Orlando and around St. Augustine have the rain pockets (mostly 2-4")

[stormlover2013]

Nam, icon, cmc worse models ever.

[Steve]

Nam, icon, cmc worse models ever.

Not worst ever, but sure. However it's the models thread.

[tailgater]

Gfs coming in a little deeper at 36hrs but still looks sheared

[Steve]

Gfs coming in a little deeper at 36hrs but still looks sheared

48 hours and it's got an eastward component as it comes north in the Gulf. That's new. Maybe it will hook, maybe it goes in MS/AL? 5 more plots to go.