ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneAndre2008]

i think the SW portion of the system is the going to take over.

[Aric Dunn]

A crazy deep moisture plume seen through all levels. this one is the 850 to 700 mb. but you can see it through all layers.
pretty crazy really.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[STRiZZY]

i think the SW portion of the system is the going to take over.

According to the euro in about 24-36hrs (from the 12z) is when the northern lobe takes over and has a more wnw motion so we'll know by then I'd assume.

[STRiZZY]

A crazy deep moisture plume seen through all levels. this one is the 850 to 700 mb. but you can see it through all layers.
pretty crazy really.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

https://i.ibb.co/wwqS9gf/sevtsevtsvb.gif

They don't call it the "tropical" Atlantic for nothing

I love to see images like this btw, very mesmerizing.

[DestinHurricane]

Convection looking a little better on the SW side tonight. Maybe its starting to get its act together.

[STRiZZY]

The way this is barreling west...I dont see it gaining much latitude, The 18z GFS starts to develop the southern lobe and at 36 hours just kills it and develops the northern lobe which makes zero sense.

I agree because if you look at the steering in the shallower layers of the atmosphere (500-850mb - where a weaker system like this would most be influenced) the mean wind steering is pretty east to west (in fact a little WSW).

[abajan]

Can we expect any impacts here in Barbados

If it becomes a tropical storm while its center passes to our north (assuming it actually passes north), I think we'll be impacted to some degree. It's simply too big for us to completely escape. Storm force gusts are a real possibility IMHO. And even if it doesn't develop any further than its current state, we could still get quite a bit of rain.

[STRiZZY]

The way this is barreling west...I dont see it gaining much latitude, The 18z GFS starts to develop the southern lobe and at 36 hours just kills it and develops the northern lobe which makes zero sense.

I agree because if you look at the steering in the shallower layers of the atmosphere (500-850mb - where a weaker system like this would most be influenced) the mean wind steering is pretty east to west (in fact a little WSW).

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.GIF

Well I looked at the 12z euro's 500/850mb wind map and in about 24hrs (from the 12z) the mean steering to the south switches from east to west, to south to north which would explain the WNW track at that period in time.

You can see the barbs are coming from the south then...

[abajan]

Meanwhile it seems the south western lob is really getting it's stuff together. Storm might be much smaller than everyone is giving hype for.
https://imgur.com/X1DEWMI

So no impacts on Barbados then?

I can't tell you there won't be any for sure. There still is always the chance of very heavy rain reguardless which always comes with a chance of flash flooding and landslides on many of those mountainous islands. I would not disregard this system even if it doesn't form into a tropical system for you guys ...

Barbados isn't mountainous. We don't have a single mountain here. Trust me. I live here!

But we do have hills, and do occasionally get landslides, especially in the northeastern areas (like the parishes of St Andrew and St Joseph). But you're right that we shouldn't disregard 92L.

[STRiZZY]

So no impacts on Barbados then?

I can't tell you there won't be any for sure. There still is always the chance of very heavy rain reguardless which always comes with a chance of flash flooding and landslides on many of those mountainous islands. I would not disregard this system even if it doesn't form into a tropical system for you guys ...

Barbados isn't mountainous. We don't have a single mountain here. Trust me. I live here!

But we do have hills, and do occasionally get landslides, especially in the northeastern areas (like the parishes of St Andrew and St Joseph). But you're right that we shouldn't disregard 92L.

Per the NHC "Rgeardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty
winds are likely across portions of the Leeward Islands on Wednesday
and will spread westward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
Wednesday night and Thursday."

It doesn't mention the Windward Islands but given the size of 92l and the possibility of the southern lobe taking over, there's some chance of squally weather.

[SFLcane]

Quite the hostle environment ahead for 92L. I will leave you with this sounding from Barbados. Very dry air up to 850-200mb.

[curtadams]

Can anyone think of another invest that looked even remotely like this one in this location? Not only is it absolutely massive, but it has a vigor that I've never seen, and has been tapping into moisture streams all the way from the equator. With the current climatology and amount of dry air that was around this system, I think that any smaller wave would have been completely consumed.

[deleted; posted a hotlink]

[GeneratorPower]

Can anyone think of another invest that looked even remotely like this one in this location? Not only is it absolutely massive, but it has a vigor that I've never seen, and has been tapping into moisture streams all the way from the equator. With the current climatology and amount of dry air that was around this system, I think that any smaller wave would have been completely consumed.

Dolly 2008. Here's a pic posted to the Storm2K discussion thread by CycloneEye when it was still an invest:
http://sirocco.accuweather.com/sat_mosaic_640x480_public/ir/isacatl.gif
Better looking than our current invest, but similar with convection fore and aft around a dry center. Didn't actually form officially for the next 2000 miles.

That’s 92L

[TheProfessor]

Can anyone think of another invest that looked even remotely like this one in this location? Not only is it absolutely massive, but it has a vigor that I've never seen, and has been tapping into moisture streams all the way from the equator. With the current climatology and amount of dry air that was around this system, I think that any smaller wave would have been completely consumed.

Dolly 2008. Here's a pic posted to the Storm2K discussion thread by CycloneEye when it was still an invest:
http://sirocco.accuweather.com/sat_mosaic_640x480_public/ir/isacatl.gif
Better looking than our current invest, but similar with convection fore and aft around a dry center. Didn't actually form officially for the next 2000 miles.

That’s 92L

Ah, a classic case of not hosting the image and just putting the source of the image, which updates over time. I see it all the time when I go back through old winter storm threads and there would be a radar image of the snow storm except now it's just a stray shower that happens to be on radar at the current moment.

[Hd444]

Looks like Irene 2011.

[curtadams]

OK, here's a real pre-Dolly image:

Much better looking than 92L. Similar in being very big (tho not so obvious at that angle). But still not a cyclone for some time after the pic.

[STRiZZY]

OK, here's a real pre-Dolly image:
http://www.fotothing.com/photos/us/40209.jpg
Much better looking than 92L. Similar in being very big (tho not so obvious at that angle). But still not a cyclone for some time after the pic.

Oh ok I see now haha!

[AutoPenalti]

So we went from pretty favorable conditions (2 pages ago) to unfavorable conditions (in this page)

[chaser1]

Can anyone think of another invest that looked even remotely like this one in this location? Not only is it absolutely massive, but it has a vigor that I've never seen, and has been tapping into moisture streams all the way from the equator. With the current climatology and amount of dry air that was around this system, I think that any smaller wave would have been completely consumed.

Climatology is the scientific study of climate (= general or long-term weather conditions) The last part of the definition is key--General or long-term weather conditions. Climatology is not a force unto itself and using the phrase "current climatology" is a misnomer.

I think the dude was just kinda wondering whether a similar sized Tropical disturbance ever occured before. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

[STRiZZY]

Can anyone think of another invest that looked even remotely like this one in this location? Not only is it absolutely massive, but it has a vigor that I've never seen, and has been tapping into moisture streams all the way from the equator. With the current climatology and amount of dry air that was around this system, I think that any smaller wave would have been completely consumed.

Climatology is the scientific study of climate (= general or long-term weather conditions) The last part of the definition is key--General or long-term weather conditions. Climatology is not a force unto itself and using the phrase "current climatology" is a misnomer.

I think the dude was just kinda wondering whether a similar sized Tropical disturbance ever occured before. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

That's what my impression was.