ATL: SALLY - Models

[tolakram]

Animation. Steering looks to fall apart right near landfall.

[pcolaman]

12Z Ukmet into Pensacola ..965 mb

Well that's not cool (if verifies). Somebody sandbag the Tin Cow stat!

I wonder if the sand shaker makes it lol

[Stormgodess]

I think I am going to be sick

*hugs*

[Shell Mound]

According to the 12Z EC, southwesterly VWS increases significantly just before landfall as a negatively tilted ULL cuts off over TX. Upwelling occurs, too.

[geolouisiana1976]

What is the typical cut off time for data that is fed to the 12Z model runs?

[dantonlsu]

Animation. Steering looks to fall apart right near landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/L3xHIm9.gif

Yikes... Talk about flooding if that pans out

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: goes down to 958 mb!

TROPICAL STORM SALLY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.9N 87.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2020 0 27.9N 87.0W 997 42
0000UTC 15.09.2020 12 28.5N 87.8W 987 56
1200UTC 15.09.2020 24 28.9N 88.4W 978 59
0000UTC 16.09.2020 36 29.4N 88.4W 969 68
1200UTC 16.09.2020 48 30.0N 87.7W 958 76
0000UTC 17.09.2020 60 31.0N 86.3W 983 42
1200UTC 17.09.2020 72 32.0N 84.6W 997 32
0000UTC 18.09.2020 84 32.5N 81.8W 1001 33
1200UTC 18.09.2020 96 CEASED TRACKING

[bella_may]

Bay at Louis is already flooding https://twitter.com/reedtimmeraccu/stat ... 48800?s=21

[Stormgodess]

Question from a noob:

What features, systems, currents, are ultimately supposed to make Sally take that Northeast curve?

[Stormcenter]

Before you hang your hat on any model runs as the gospel remember
these are the same models that didn’t even show
a TS in Gulf just 3 days ago.

[Stormgodess]

Before you hang your hat on any model runs as the gospel remember
these are the same models that didn’t even show
a TS in Gulf just 3 days ago.

Is there anything at all that can be watched as far as possible steering features with Sally?? The dang official updates are so far between, its tough trying to figure out what to do. Not in direct path but if she goes in any further west than the cone, Im in for a very rough night

[Ivanhater]

18Z early guidance. TVCN into Mobile bay, nearly all clustered into Alabama now

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[Blow_Hard]

18Z early guidance. TVCN into Mobile bay, nearly all clustered into Alabama nowhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200914/e42176f49f01260494f83d423051fa75.jpg

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The slower she goes, the Easter she comes....

[DestinHurricane]

18Z early guidance. TVCN into Mobile bay, nearly all clustered into Alabama nowhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200914/e42176f49f01260494f83d423051fa75.jpg

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The slower she goes, the Easter she comes....

It is stalling right now. If it continues the stall as well as being stronger I wouldn't doubt more shifts east.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

These storms never really surprise me. Wouldn't be shocked in any way if she ended up going in East of Mobile.

[p1nheadlarry]

Question from a noob:

What features, systems, currents, are ultimately supposed to make Sally take that Northeast curve?

Question from a noob:

What features, systems, currents, are ultimately supposed to make Sally take that Northeast curve?

A building mid-level ridge is what's causing Sally to drift, but it eventually turns around its periphery and aided by an upper-level trough that erodes it.

I won't link it to save his server's soul, but if you look at the 500 hPa GFS geopotential height, you can see the 591 dam line (=5910 meter geopotential height) expands significantly over the CONUS, which is the ridge building atop of Sally, from hr 00-12.

By 36 hrs, the maximum contour is 588 which is the erosion due to the trough.

[p1nheadlarry]

HRRR stalls Sally well before reaching the mouth of the Mississippi. Can't link the full run from weathermodels, but it's not what you want if you're in NW FL.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow.... The 12z ECM Ensembles with the big spread with the mean just east of the AL/MS line. The stronger members from Mobile Bay to Ft. Walton Bch. and that with the wrong initialization point. There's 4 or 5 all the way to PCB. FL

[Ian2401]

Wow.... The 12z ECM Ensembles with the big spread with the mean just east of the AL/MS line. The stronger members from Mobile Bay to Ft. Walton Bch. and that with the wrong initialization point. There's 4 or 5 all the way to PCB. FL

picture?

[FixySLN]

Friendly reminder that was saw plenty of these shifts during Laura and that most models didn't even pick up on Sally until she was nearly in the gulf. Be prepared, but be patient.