ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[TheProfessor]

Tonight's Euro is a bit quicker and weaker than the 12z run so far.

[Aric Dunn]

or not.. lol

it just makes of the difference

Indeed, lol. That's a solid push west from the Atlantic ridging. Weather should be east of center, but center isn't going to get that far east until it reaches the westerlies. Orientation of western trough will be interesting to see if it could guide it east, but eventually a ridge is supposed to build up in Missouri or so for the final nudge left.

This is a beast ridge. If the ECMWF has this still advancing or static at 48 hours, take it to the bank this is a North Gulf Storm or a west cut to the NW Gulf.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0500&fh=24

huge ridge to the west too.. hence why it is in a COL.. but the center again as been drifting east and is east of all the models from 12 and 18z.. it is following the convective bursts.

[Steve]

Bang. There it is. Ridge 1/4 of the way to the Tundra is building over top 48 hours; trough is pulling off the NE Coast. If EC is right, the only question is will it deepen below 994 or ride that level up toward the LA Coast.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0500&fh=48

[Steve]

Ukmet.. actually 984mb

https://i.ibb.co/5c9Kcdd/Capture.png

Word. Thanks for that. We're getting to that 3 day window where things usually hone in. 984 is one of the lowest 00z pressures I've seen.

[TheProfessor]

Tonight's Euro is a lot like last night's so far, main difference is that it's a bit weaker.

[Steve]

Tonight's Euro is a lot like last night's so far, main difference is that it's a bit weaker.

Yeah, it's 993. Looks to go in between Grand Isle and Cocodrie. Depending on structure, you'd think the most rain would fall in Florida, and the bands would be across southern Alabama and Mississippi over into central LA. 96 hours will tell us if the EC still wants to jog west toward Vermilion Bay or even Texas or if it slows down or if it keeps booking up and out. The ridge overtop has connected with the Atlantic Ridge, but pressures are lowering behind it to the west. Come on 96 hours! I'm sleepy.

[Aric Dunn]

The jump to the NW of the EURO from its current position is unrealistic. given the current motion and rotational momentum going on right now..The likelihood ( assuming no reformation to the east) of it exiting central to NE side of the Yucatan is more likely.

[TheProfessor]

It takes longer for the storm to move out this run when compared to last night's 0z Euro.

[Steve]

The jump to the NW of the EURO from its current position is unrealistic. given the current motion and rotational moment going on right now..The likelihood ( assuming no reformation to the east) of it exiting central to NE side of the Yucatan is more likely.

Yeah, really tough call. I'd bet the EC has the trajectory right overall, but where does the circulation come up relative to that - Bay of Campeche, NW / N /NE Yucatan or even the Channel? If it's more east, it's probably closer to between New Orleans and Gulfport. European does keep it moving though throughout this run, so if it's right, not much of a stall. It doesn't turn eastward until crossing Arkansas.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1268794281780817926

[NDG]

All the sudden the latest GFS is more aggressive, at least compared to yesterday, didn't see this coming.

[NDG]

This is not a bad looking area environment on the GFS sounding forecast when Cristobal starts approaching the northern gulf coast, the reason why the latest GFS is a little stronger on its last run, fairly moist with only light southerly shear in the upper levels in the immediate area surrounding its center of circulation.

[NDG]

Close up look of the 12z early models, I took out the worthless TAB models, very good consensus among the best tropical models and consensus models.

[chaser1]

All the sudden the latest GFS is more aggressive, at least compared to yesterday, didn't see this coming.

https://i.imgur.com/GPRNV9t.png

What? I hadn't even looked at the 6Z models yet. Oh boy, that's a different look from the GFS. Starting to get a bit more conformity with the EURO on intensity. I was nearly positive that this was going to be a pretty much non-event in terms of core winds and pressure but am increasingly thinking this will be fairly potent for June standards.

[Aric Dunn]

6z models initialized way down there... center is way to the NE.. I say we see a slght eastward shift today.. assuming the models are given the correct data..

which they were apparently not initialized correctly.. lol

[MississippiWx]

6z models initialized way down there... center is way to the NE.. I say we see a slght eastward shift today.. assuming the models are given the correct data..

which they were apparently not initialized correctly.. lol

https://i.ibb.co/zVdSbmq/Capture.png

Wow. Definitely on the eastern fringe.

One thing that helps with is getting the system further away from dry air.

[Steve]

Consensus per the SFWMD plots is Terrebonne Parish, LA. That's a bit farther east than I thought it would come in. We'll see if it holds when the 12z's start running.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

[NDG]

6z models initialized way down there... center is way to the NE.. I say we see a slght eastward shift today.. assuming the models are given the correct data..

which they were apparently not initialized correctly.. lol

https://i.ibb.co/zVdSbmq/Capture.png

I disagree with you that the COC is that far east.

[Steve]

6z models initialized way down there... center is way to the NE.. I say we see a slght eastward shift today.. assuming the models are given the correct data..

which they were apparently not initialized correctly.. lol

https://i.ibb.co/zVdSbmq/Capture.png

I disagree with you that the COC is that far east.

Decent counter-point. There could be multiple centers there (at different levels) and due to the gyre structure, there may be a focusing mechanism that ends up being on the NW tip of the Yucatan in the next few hours. We'll get the NHC position in about 15 minutes.

[Aric Dunn]

6z models initialized way down there... center is way to the NE.. I say we see a slght eastward shift today.. assuming the models are given the correct data..

which they were apparently not initialized correctly.. lol

https://i.ibb.co/zVdSbmq/Capture.png

I disagree with you that the COC is that far east.

Decent counter-point. There could be multiple centers there (at different levels) and due to the gyre structure, there may be a focusing mechanism that ends up being on the NW tip of the Yucatan in the next few hours. We'll get the NHC position in about 15 minutes.

unfortunately, you only need to looks at the surface obs.. no signs of multiple vorts at the surface convection ( plenty of mid level swirls from the cloud debris)moving to the NE and curving around also points to the center being in the general area i point out.

as of right now. no signs of anything off the NW tip.