ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

This time tomorrow we could also see some convective debris from PR and DR entraining into Joe.

[GCANE]

The bigger challenge in the next 24 hrs may not be so much shear but low/mid-level dry-air entrainment.
Need to see how that shakes out with the increasing CAPE.
Would really help to keep Joe alive if convection would start popping up to the west.
The saving grace a bit later may come from afternoon popups firing over PR and Hispaniola.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Here's the new ASCAT of Josephine. It has winds of 35kt and, explicitly, an open wave. The instrument is probably too coarse to sample the tight LLC found by recon earlier, but regardless, it's never a good thing when ASCAT can't close the center off. Next recon is at sunrise and should find a system that is very much struggling.

[GCANE]

Actually I just looked at Mid WV and IR.
There is a ton of convective debris come off the Yucatan, CA, and Hispaniola and headed straight to Joe.
Joe could get a whiff of that by morning.
We'll see where we are just before sunrise and DMAX.

[Aric Dunn]

Here's the new ASCAT of Josephine. It has winds of 35kt and, explicitly, an open wave. The instrument is probably too coarse to sample the tight LLC found by recon earlier, but regardless, it's never a good thing when ASCAT can't close the center off. Next recon is at sunrise and should find a system that is very much struggling.

https://i.imgur.com/KhAtRLl.png

we saw recan completely tear apart ASCAT in the SW quad.. the ascat pass before recon also showed ne flow on the SW side... recon flew out all the way down the SW quad and showed nw to nnw flow..

So this is not the first time ASCAT as completely failed to analyze one quad or another completely wrong.. looks like this is another case.

dead giveaway is the right angle wind shifts.

[ozonepete]

Here's the new ASCAT of Josephine. It has winds of 35kt and, explicitly, an open wave. The instrument is probably too coarse to sample the tight LLC found by recon earlier, but regardless, it's never a good thing when ASCAT can't close the center off. Next recon is at sunrise and should find a system that is very much struggling.

https://i.imgur.com/KhAtRLl.png

Open wave???

1. There's been a lot of (correct) commentary here over the last few months (and years actually) on how ASCAT is notoriously unreliable in cases like this of developing TCs. One main reason? The instrument is definitely too coarse to sample any tight LLC. So I would say the correct statement should be that: "it's never reliable to use ASCAT when ASCAT can't close the center off."

2. It does not show an open wave. It shows a closed low.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Here's the new ASCAT of Josephine. It has winds of 35kt and, explicitly, an open wave. The instrument is probably too coarse to sample the tight LLC found by recon earlier, but regardless, it's never a good thing when ASCAT can't close the center off. Next recon is at sunrise and should find a system that is very much struggling.

https://i.imgur.com/KhAtRLl.png

Open wave???

1. There's been a lot of (correct) commentary here over the last few months (and years actually) on how ASCAT is notoriously unreliable in cases like this of developing TCs. One main reason? The instrument is definitely too coarse to sample any tight LLC. So I would say the correct statement should be that: "it's never reliable to use ASCAT when ASCAT can't close the center off."

2. It does not show an open wave. It shows a closed low.

Hm? There are no westerly winds on the south side of the circulation in that pass. Just east-northeasterlies. Technically speaking, it is open in that image. I already acknowledged that the instrument is probably too coarse to pick up on the center found earlier. My point was that when we don't have a broad swath of westerlies clearly evident to the south of the center on ASCAT, that system probably isn't too healthy. Or, as one of the Hurricane Hunters that flew into Josephine said on Twitter this afternoon, "Tropical Storm Josephine is a hot mess."

[ozonepete]

This time tomorrow we could also see some convective debris from PR and DR entraining into Joe.

Hi G. Just wanted to ask if you knew that the nickname for Josephine is Jo, not Joe. Joe is for Joseph. I learned from my friend Josephine.

[Aric Dunn]

Here's the new ASCAT of Josephine. It has winds of 35kt and, explicitly, an open wave. The instrument is probably too coarse to sample the tight LLC found by recon earlier, but regardless, it's never a good thing when ASCAT can't close the center off. Next recon is at sunrise and should find a system that is very much struggling.

https://i.imgur.com/KhAtRLl.png

Open wave???

1. There's been a lot of (correct) commentary here over the last few months (and years actually) on how ASCAT is notoriously unreliable in cases like this of developing TCs. One main reason? The instrument is definitely too coarse to sample any tight LLC. So I would say the correct statement should be that: "it's never reliable to use ASCAT when ASCAT can't close the center off."

2. It does not show an open wave. It shows a closed low.

Hm? There are no westerly winds on the south side of the circulation in that pass. Just east-northeasterlies. Technically speaking, it is open in that image. I already acknowledged that the instrument is probably too coarse to pick up on the center found earlier. My point was that when we don't have a broad swath of westerlies clearly evident to the south of the center on ASCAT, that system probably isn't too healthy. Or, as one of the Hurricane Hunters that flew into Josephine said on Twitter this afternoon, "Tropical Storm Josephine is a hot mess."

This mostly comes down to the "Tire of the road" problem. the equations that calculate the ASCAT data cant handle the forward perpendicular motion. the forward speed of Josephine is a good percentage of the wnw to westerly winds in that quad.

but as we found out earlier from recon is that 15 to 20kt winds were present well away from the center to the SW.

[ozonepete]

Here's the new ASCAT of Josephine. It has winds of 35kt and, explicitly, an open wave. The instrument is probably too coarse to sample the tight LLC found by recon earlier, but regardless, it's never a good thing when ASCAT can't close the center off. Next recon is at sunrise and should find a system that is very much struggling.

https://i.imgur.com/KhAtRLl.png

Open wave???

1. There's been a lot of (correct) commentary here over the last few months (and years actually) on how ASCAT is notoriously unreliable in cases like this of developing TCs. One main reason? The instrument is definitely too coarse to sample any tight LLC. So I would say the correct statement should be that: "it's never reliable to use ASCAT when ASCAT can't close the center off."

2. It does not show an open wave. It shows a closed low.

Hm? There are no westerly winds on the south side of the circulation in that pass. Just easterlies. Technically speaking, it is open in that image. I already acknowledged that the instrument is probably too coarse to pick up on the center found earlier. My point was that when we don't have a broad swath of westerlies clearly evident to the south of the center on ASCAT, that system probably isn't too healthy. Or, as one of the Hurricane Hunters that flew into Josephine said on Twitter this afternoon, "Tropical Storm Josephine is a hot mess."

I'll let the experts on here comment on your analysis of that ASCAT pass.
But the opinion of one Hurricane Hunter crew member does not constitute any official analysis.
Let's see what the NHC says at 11PM about the "hot mess."

[Aric Dunn]

As long as convection persists in this manner or even pulses without any prolonged lull. it will maintain as TD/TS.

[Hurricane Jed]

Oh look they upped it to 45mph.

[Aric Dunn]

Oh look they upped it to 45mph.

They really had no choice.

A fortuitous ASCAT-A overpass has
revealed peak winds of 35-40 kt over the northern semicircle of the
storm, and the scatterometer ambiguities along with the earlier
reconnaissance aircraft data suggest that the circulation is still
closed.

[ozonepete]

Oh look they upped it to 45mph.

They really had no choice.

A fortuitous ASCAT-A overpass has
revealed peak winds of 35-40 kt over the northern semicircle of the
storm, and the scatterometer ambiguities along with the earlier
reconnaissance aircraft data suggest that the circulation is still
closed.

You mean it's not a hot mess?

[Aric Dunn]

Oh look they upped it to 45mph.

They really had no choice.

A fortuitous ASCAT-A overpass has
revealed peak winds of 35-40 kt over the northern semicircle of the
storm, and the scatterometer ambiguities along with the earlier
reconnaissance aircraft data suggest that the circulation is still
closed.

You mean it's not a hot mess?

Apparently not.. just your typical sheared TS. lol

[Ken711]

NHC 11:00 PM

Josephine is predicted to weaken to a tropical
depression in about 48 hours, and become a remnant low in 3-4 days.

[Kingarabian]

Partial eyewall feature trying to develop? interesting. ...

[url]https://i.ibb.co/0B9JJbV/Capture.png[url]

Looks like something was there and it got blown off. Odd system.

[ozonepete]

NHC 11:00 PM

Josephine is predicted to weaken to a tropical
depression in about 48 hours, and become a remnant low in 3-4 days.

Tomorrow's another day...

[Aric Dunn]

NHC 11:00 PM

Josephine is predicted to weaken to a tropical
depression in about 48 hours, and become a remnant low in 3-4 days.

Tomorrow's another day...

This same forecast keeps getting pushed back lol at least they went out 3 to 4 days this time....

[Aric Dunn]

Just an FYI.. models now showing Josephine either looping back coming back to life. or if your the GFS.. then it menders around for 2 weeks south of Bermuda..