ATL: SALLY - Models

[Stormcenter]

I could be wrong (it happens to all of us) but
I just don’t it going that far eat at all.

That’s a pretty big shift west, from what I can tell the center goes inland in the area between Ocean Springs and Gautier.. Goula would take the full brunt of the east eye wall

I won’t be surprised if they nudge the track back west a little.

No. Consensus is into mobile bay as wxman said.

[DestinHurricane]

I could be wrong (it happens to all of us) but
I just don’t it going that far eat at all.

I won’t be surprised if they nudge the track back west a little.

No. Consensus is into mobile bay as wxman said.

Considering that it is stalling much more east of where models expected, I would not even be surprised to see it end up east of mobile.

[Frank P]

I could be wrong (it happens to all of us) but
I just don’t it going that far eat at all.

No. Consensus is into mobile bay as wxman said.

Considering that it is stalling much more east of where models expected, I would not even be surprised to see it end up east of mobile.

well according to the 7:00 pm update it is still moving WNW at 5mph... earlier it was 6... so they did not state it has stalled...\
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 87.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

[ElectricStorm]

I could be wrong (it happens to all of us) but
I just don’t it going that far eat at all.

Considering that it is stalling much more east of where models expected, I would not even be surprised to see it end up east of mobile.

well according to the 7:00 pm update it is still moving WNW at 5mph... earlier it was 6... so they did not state it has stalled...\
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 87.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

Pressure went up 1mb. Good. Going to need to get much lower to make a run at major

[DestinHurricane]

I could be wrong (it happens to all of us) but
I just don’t it going that far eat at all.

Considering that it is stalling much more east of where models expected, I would not even be surprised to see it end up east of mobile.

well according to the 7:00 pm update it is still moving WNW at 5mph... earlier it was 6... so they did not state it has stalled...\
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 87.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

They average 6 hour movements. 6 hours ago it was still moving. Last few hours recon has confirmed it has stalled.

[NDG]

New 18z Euro is further east from previous run so far, stalls it tomorrow well ESE of the mouth of the river, this may end up with a landfall if not AL into Pensacola. We shall see in a few minutes.

[SFLcane]

Some EPS members looping Sally back around into the Bahamas.

[NDG]

Considering that it is stalling much more east of where models expected, I would not even be surprised to see it end up east of mobile.

well according to the 7:00 pm update it is still moving WNW at 5mph... earlier it was 6... so they did not state it has stalled...\
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 87.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

They average 6 hour movements. 6 hours ago it was still moving. Last few hours recon has confirmed it has stalled.

What recon are you looking at, this clearly shows it is very slowly moving west to wnw.

[NDG]

By Wednesday 10 PM, about to head into Mobile Bay, weakening some.

[MidnightRain]

By Wednesday 10 PM, about to head into Mobile Bay, weakening some.

https://i.imgur.com/09ecuNe.png

Wow, that is massively slow.

[Blown Away]

Some EPS members looping Sally back around into the Bahamas.

https://i.postimg.cc/PxrvZ7bX/8433-A4-F1-72-FC-40-A7-95-DD-3-C32209-AE7-E0.gif

Remember Ivan did that, looped back into Florida.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

By Wednesday 10 PM, about to head into Mobile Bay, weakening some.

https://i.imgur.com/09ecuNe.png

The weakening is good, but the length of time not so good.

[Stormcenter]

I hope you guys aren’t betting your life’s savings
on any of these model runs. Remember these are
the same models that had Laura heading into Galveston
Bay and didn’t see Sally just 3 days ago. I’m mean there
is a reason why practically the entire central Gulf coast is
under a Hurricane warning. Talk about covering all
bases. Did any predict the stalls?

[MississippiWx]

The GFS is either out to lunch or it’s onto something. It moved west at 18z and its ensembles moved way west. HWRF and HMON nudged west as well. The 18z Euro though...wow. It’s amazing the difference between it and the other 18z runs.

[Ivanhater]

Where does the euro end up?

[PTPatrick]

There isn’t a great deal of real estate between gfs and euro in the grand scheme...it’s mostly time differences for the stall and the solution may well just be a weird average of it all. Stall behavior is very hard for models to call. Time will tell. Going with general theme of drifting inland somewhere from ocean springs to Gulf shores about most correct st this juncture.

[DestinHurricane]

The GFS is either out to lunch or it’s onto something. It moved west at 18z and its ensembles moved way west. HWRF and HMON nudged west as well. The 18z Euro though...wow. It’s amazing the difference between it and the other 18z runs.

Considering sally's speed right now I am leaning towards Euro. GFS barely even moved west. HWRF actually shifted east by a few miles.

[Ivanhater]

There isn’t a great deal of real estate between gfs and euro in the grand scheme...it’s mostly time differences for the stall and the solution may well just be a weird average of it all. Stall behavior is very hard for models to call. Time will tell. Going with general theme of drifting inland somewhere from ocean springs to Gulf shores about most correct st this juncture.

I agree. With the stalling or very slow motion, the models may just drift on each solution for a while.

[MidnightRain]

Keep in mind before the East shift, almost every model had this moving due west from its exact location now. That’s still entirely possible and could put SELA back in play.

[DestinHurricane]

Keep in mind before the East shift, almost every model had this moving due west from its exact location now. That’s still entirely possible and could put SELA back in play.

They were moving into SELA because they weren't moving so slow. Since then the models have trended slower and thus trended east. With Sally stalling right now, that is an unlikely solution.