ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cfisher]

The way Laura has been strengthening makes me think it's less likely it "overheats" before landfall.

They "overheat?" What does that mean?

Gets too strong too quick and chokes itself out, potentially thru an ERC.

[MGC]

Looks like mesovortices rotating around Laura's eye wall. This is worst case scenario for landfall area. Laura could intensify right up to landfall.....MGC

[chaser1]

I'm just thinking of charley and how they screwed up its turn.

That was 16 years ago. Track forecasting has improved. And they are the best of the best.

In addition Charley was a pint sized bullet. more like giant tornado. Laura is a massive steamroller

Good analogy. Small hurricanes can be really squirrely and far more apt to respond to other smaller scale moving parts, just as small hurricanes are more susceptible to quick upticks in strength (or sudden weakening).

[cfisher]

I have a feeling parts of SW LA will be uninhabitable for a while.

[tolakram]

Looking at the visible it seems like the NW quadrant is being eroded away.

Dry air perhaps?

If you peak at some of the 1-minute imagery, you can see that appeared to be a bit of dry air but it is now being exhausted out of the system. Solid eyewall on IR is beginning to take shape again.

That left side is about where the shear axis is. Laura is expected to turn and move more NW and north, just barely getting into that higher shear zone before landfall.

[Highteeld]

too bad the recon data are missing again

[FLpanhandle91]

We should get some incredible images once the sun starts to set on visible.

[tolakram]

18:27Z

[Highteeld]

[HurricaneEnzo]

too bad the recon data are missing again

Always seems to happen when we are on the edge of our seats lol.

[wkwally]

https://i.imgur.com/FuedghR.png

Definitely hugging the west side of the cone!

Yikes!

That would put in Houston in play again

[catskillfire51]

https://i.imgur.com/FuedghR.png

Definitely hugging the west side of the cone!

Yikes!

That would put in Houston in play again

I doubt in play just more affects then expected

[Cunxi Huang]

Some data are back. Looks like an SE-NW pass is ongoing.

[GrayLancer18]

Looking at the visible it seems like the NW quadrant is being eroded away.

Dry air perhaps?

If you peak at some of the 1-minute imagery, you can see that appeared to be a bit of dry air but it is now being exhausted out of the system. Solid eyewall on IR is beginning to take shape again.

That left side is about where the shear axis is. Laura is expected to turn and move more NW and north, just barely getting into that higher shear zone before landfall.

Yup!

 https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1298688804732231683




Looks like Laura's intensification party is gonna be over soon!

[BYG Jacob]

18:27Z

https://i.imgur.com/KD9DWzQ.png

Reminds me of Dorian before it got to the Bahamas.

[GrayLancer18]

If you peak at some of the 1-minute imagery, you can see that appeared to be a bit of dry air but it is now being exhausted out of the system. Solid eyewall on IR is beginning to take shape again.

That left side is about where the shear axis is. Laura is expected to turn and move more NW and north, just barely getting into that higher shear zone before landfall.

Yup! Looks like Laura's intensification party is gonna be over soon!


 https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1298688804732231683

[chaser1]

SATELLITE





NOAA STAR:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL132020


RAMMB/CIRA:
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... r=al132020


CIMSS:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0
(Site experienced a power outage overnight and some things might not be available or might be out of date)


RAMMB/CIRA SLIDER (hard to operate sometimes):
GeoColor: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 5068.21875
IR: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 5068.21875
Visible: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 5068.21875


College of DuPage:
IR: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined
Visible: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined


Tropical Tidbits:
IR: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
Visible: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis


NASA MSFC:
IR: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... te=ir2.pal
Visible: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... olor=white
Closeup Visible: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... olor=black
From: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/



1 minute satellite imagery:



NOAA STAR:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/meso_index.php
On mesoscale page, click latest for Gulf of Mexico where the storm is.
Band 2 for visible. Band 13 for IR.


College of DuPage:
IR: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined
Visible: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined


NASA SPORT:
IR: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/s ... ct=10p35um



Other Satellite Imagery:



SSEC RealEarth is out of date at the moment, or unavailable, for the following after suffering a power outage last night:

SSEC RealEarth GOES East Full Disk (every 10 minute):
https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... ter=27,-90

SSEC RealEarh Global Imagery (like AVN, hourly):
https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?center ... obalir-avn






RADAR






Lake Charles, Louisiana radar and some that have a composite of radar sites.


NWS:
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid ... 11&loop=no


Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System (MRMS) from NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory:
https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_ ... s_step=600


A few different views from Lake Charles radar and others:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/radar.html


Plymouth State Weather Center:
https://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/rad ... &ident=LCH


Weather Underground. In drop down menu, select 248nm range:
https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/l ... harles/lch


Wundermap:
https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap? ... rm-cells=0


Experimental NWS Radar Display:
https://preview-radar.weather.gov/?sett ... xzZX0%3D#/
(subject to being unavailable)


Tropical Cyclone Radar Loops:
http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/radar/
Long updating loops of Laura.


Radar Floater:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _and_Radar
Where you could view a 200 image loop of Laura at the moment:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... isplay=200


Another NWS interactive map:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?radar=true


RealEarth is just coming back online so might have issues:
https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... ew=leaflet





OTHER LINKS





Current Tide Levels:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inund ... Laura.html


River levels:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps/


Buoys:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/


Local NWS Products:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls3+shtml/


Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map (Inundation):
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... n#contents

C'mon Chris.... no live WebCams? You're falling off your game J/K, thanks for sharing the nice list of links!

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.imgur.com/FuedghR.png

Definitely hugging the west side of the cone!

Yikes!

That would put in Houston in play again

Probably more like Beaumont, if any westward deviation at all. It would have to maintain its current heading all the way to the coast to reach Houston, which isn't very likely.

[Blinhart]

Really wish people would stop saying Houston is in the cross hairs still, that would would be a catastrophic failure if it happens.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Last few images of the loop show potential strengthening. Eye becoming more round and more deep colors building in surrounding it. May help mix some of those higher winds down to the surface.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... product=ir