ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[ROCK]

Let it develop then models will grasp track and intensity...wait for it say 24hrs

[cycloneye]

[Steve]

GFS's sit-n-spin goes along with RMM1/RMM2 model runs which drop it into Phase 1 and then shoot it back up in Phase 1 for the next two weeks. That's an odd look, but it makes sense in the model run. European was similar back either Wed or Thurs night

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ncpe.shtml

[N2FSU]

0z GFS; stronger and north shift




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[Steve]

The Icon (German one) has a 970ish storm approaching Grand Isle and taking a left at the LA Coast and eventually going into Jefferson County, TX or extreme SW Cameron Parish, LA (or so) before going north into the Piney Woods. There would be a lot of tidal and coastal flooding if this was to be the case. Probably some inland river and stream flooding as well.

[Pas_Bon]

The Icon (German one) has a 970ish storm approaching Grand Isle and taking a left at the LA Coast and eventually going into Jefferson County, TX or extreme SW Cameron Parish, LA (or so) before going north into the Piney Woods. There would be a lot of tidal and coastal flooding if this was to be the case. Probably some inland river and stream flooding as well.

I just don’t see that happening in the least. Would be awful, for sure, but I think the chances of that happening are essentially nil.

[TheProfessor]

The Icon (German one) has a 970ish storm approaching Grand Isle and taking a left at the LA Coast and eventually going into Jefferson County, TX or extreme SW Cameron Parish, LA (or so) before going north into the Piney Woods. There would be a lot of tidal and coastal flooding if this was to be the case. Probably some inland river and stream flooding as well.

I just don’t see that happening in the least. Would be awful, for sure, but I think the chances of that happening are essentially nil.

I wouldn't rule out anything this far out. The 0z Canadian and 12z Euro do something similar. It's too early to rule anything out and we've seen some freak steering current incidents over the last few years.

[Steve]

The Icon (German one) has a 970ish storm approaching Grand Isle and taking a left at the LA Coast and eventually going into Jefferson County, TX or extreme SW Cameron Parish, LA (or so) before going north into the Piney Woods. There would be a lot of tidal and coastal flooding if this was to be the case. Probably some inland river and stream flooding as well.

I just don’t see that happening in the least. Would be awful, for sure, but I think the chances of that happening are essentially nil.

As The Professor would say right before this post, the CMC does it too. Maybe the track at the coast ends up a bit like Gustav '08 except it detours left before land.
Here we are a week from last night.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 100&fh=144

If you run the model, you can see what it's thinking. We're under a week until impact, so anyone who needs anything might want to target getting your stuff early during the week before any panic sets in.

[Dylan]

The European remains quite aggressive in the short term, with organization quickly into a depression by Monday night & a strong tropical storm Tuesday into Wednesday in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche.

Land interaction with a possible landfall somewhere near Veracruz to Tobasco would have major implications on long term track & intensity of this disturbance.

[kevin]

I'm not sure how good ICON is at hurricane track and intensity forecasts (if I recall correctly it didn't do that well with Dorian last year), but I still wanted to mention that it remains very aggressive in terms of intensification with a 967 mbar hurricane at @120 hours.

[tailgater]

We should know in about 24 - 6 hrs if the ICON has any validity. It’s has the system moving north earlier than the rest.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm not sure how good ICON is at hurricane track and intensity forecasts (if I recall correctly it didn't do that well with Dorian last year), but I still wanted to mention that it remains very aggressive in terms of intensification with a 967 mbar hurricane at @120 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/MWWhHUl.png

The ICON is horrible. I’d trust the CMC before I trust this model, and even the CMC tends to be overly aggressive.

[aspen]

While they all have varying intensity estimates, the GFS and Euro show one system in the BOC before dying as the CAG throws up another one into the Gulf, while the CMC, NAVGEM, ICON, and HWRF all show 93L sort of stalling and then moving between NNW and NE.

The GFS is still pretty weak on the potential second system, but the Euro shows more substance. The CMC and NAVGEM struggle consolidating 93L and have an incredibly broad system, while the ICON and HWRF do show a consolidated system, with the ICON being extra aggressive (up to a Cat 2 hurricane) and the HWRF being rather tame (strong TS/minimal hurricane).

[TheStormExpert]

While they all have varying intensity estimates, the GFS and Euro show one system in the BOC before dying as the CAG throws up another one into the Gulf, while the CMC, NAVGEM, ICON, and HWRF all show 93L sort of stalling and then moving between NNW and NE.

The GFS is still pretty weak on the potential second system, but the Euro shows more substance. The CMC and NAVGEM struggle consolidating 93L and have an incredibly broad system, while the ICON and HWRF do show a consolidated system, with the ICON being extra aggressive (up to a Cat 2 hurricane) and the HWRF being rather tame (strong TS/minimal hurricane).

I'm thinking a high end TS or Cat.1 hurricane seems like the best bet right now with future Cristobal or Dolly.

[NDG]

I'm not sure how good ICON is at hurricane track and intensity forecasts (if I recall correctly it didn't do that well with Dorian last year), but I still wanted to mention that it remains very aggressive in terms of intensification with a 967 mbar hurricane at @120 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/MWWhHUl.png

The ICON is horrible. I’d trust the CMC before I trust this model, and even the CMC tends to be overly aggressive.

Yep, the ICON is horrible, I lost all my trust with it after last year's horrible performance.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm not sure how good ICON is at hurricane track and intensity forecasts (if I recall correctly it didn't do that well with Dorian last year), but I still wanted to mention that it remains very aggressive in terms of intensification with a 967 mbar hurricane at @120 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/MWWhHUl.png

The ICON is horrible. I’d trust the CMC before I trust this model, and even the CMC tends to be overly aggressive.

Yep, the ICON is horrible, I lost all my trust with it after last year's horrible performance.

It kept insisting that Dorian would continue west into SE Florida while all the other models insisted on a sharp turn north somewhere over Grand Bahama Island. That right there was enough for me to lose trust in it, not to mention it's overly aggressive on development more so than the CMC it seems.

[aspen]

I'm not sure how good ICON is at hurricane track and intensity forecasts (if I recall correctly it didn't do that well with Dorian last year), but I still wanted to mention that it remains very aggressive in terms of intensification with a 967 mbar hurricane at @120 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/MWWhHUl.png

The ICON is horrible. I’d trust the CMC before I trust this model, and even the CMC tends to be overly aggressive.

Yep, the ICON is horrible, I lost all my trust with it after last year's horrible performance.

It was the only model that correctly predicted Dorian’s safe passage between Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, though. Just about every other model kept forecasting it to die crashing into PR or Hispaniola until the last minute.

[TheStormExpert]

The ICON is horrible. I’d trust the CMC before I trust this model, and even the CMC tends to be overly aggressive.

Yep, the ICON is horrible, I lost all my trust with it after last year's horrible performance.

It was the only model that correctly predicted Dorian’s safe passage between Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, though. Just about every other model kept forecasting it to die crashing into PR or Hispaniola until the last minute.

Yeah but it also never let up on a landfalling Dorian in SE Florida which obviously never came close to happening.

[NDG]

The ICON is horrible. I’d trust the CMC before I trust this model, and even the CMC tends to be overly aggressive.

Yep, the ICON is horrible, I lost all my trust with it after last year's horrible performance.

It was the only model that correctly predicted Dorian’s safe passage between Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, though. Just about every other model kept forecasting it to die crashing into PR or Hispaniola until the last minute.

It got lucky that one time

[cycloneye]

The Bam model tracks and intensities.