ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion
(tongue & cheek ).
Amber Alert: Large Young Male Tropical Cyclone missing somewhere within Central America vicinity. He may/ may not respond to the name Amanda and is likely to be severely thirsty. (NHC) Family believes he'll be headed toward the Bay of Campeche however he remains scattered & confused. Any information regarding his whereabouts should be immediately conveyed to the S2K Forum Thread - 93 L. While not presently considered dangerous, model analysis suggests a potential grudge toward those living in Texas and Louisiana. He is otherwise a big crybaby and caution should be exercised where ponding or fast moving water exists. Further advices to follow, when warranted.
Amber Alert: Large Young Male Tropical Cyclone missing somewhere within Central America vicinity. He may/ may not respond to the name Amanda and is likely to be severely thirsty. (NHC) Family believes he'll be headed toward the Bay of Campeche however he remains scattered & confused. Any information regarding his whereabouts should be immediately conveyed to the S2K Forum Thread - 93 L. While not presently considered dangerous, model analysis suggests a potential grudge toward those living in Texas and Louisiana. He is otherwise a big crybaby and caution should be exercised where ponding or fast moving water exists. Further advices to follow, when warranted.
10 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion
chaser1 wrote:(tongue & cheek ).
Amber Alert: Large Young Male Tropical Cyclone missing somewhere within Central America vicinity. He may/ may not respond to the name Amanda and is likely to be severely thirsty. (NHC) Family believes he'll be headed toward the Bay of Campeche however he remains scattered & confused. Any information regarding his whereabouts should be immediately conveyed to the S2K Forum Thread - 93 L. While not presently considered dangerous, model analysis suggests a potential grudge toward those living in Texas and Louisiana. He is otherwise a big crybaby and caution should be exercised where ponding or fast moving water exists. Further advices to follow, when warranted.
Large young male? Crybaby? Hmm...
1 likes
blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)
Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion
What, did I miss the mark LOL? ⬆️
Gyre - Cristobal (potentially) - Precipitous hot wet mess
Gyre - Cristobal (potentially) - Precipitous hot wet mess
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion
Seems to be a circ quickly developing in the southern BOC.. it is dropping south and will die over the mountains. as the remnants of Amanda's low to mid level vorticity rotates north and then west and out over the BOC overnight and tomorrow the models should begin to tighten the spread.
2 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion
Super early season climo often says don't fight/tilt right...which happens more often than not. We'll see what happens this time but the early precip progs from the WPC seem to imply just that...while these are subject to run to run changes, watching the trends on these can be a valuable data point. As of now the hot zone is east of 90 longitude.. While this doesn't necessarily mean a storm will head that direction, a slug of high PWAT air (and attendant heavy rain) likely will. Might be just another deep tropical "plume of gloom"..
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1590968362
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1590968362
0 likes
Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion
chaser1 wrote:What, did I miss the mark LOL? ⬆️
Gyre - Cristobal (potentially) - Precipitous hot wet mess
Derp, sorry, was half asleep, I got whatcha meant ahahah. Just wanted to find out if what I thought was right
0 likes
blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)
- MGC
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5796
- Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
- Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.
Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:Seems to be a circ quickly developing in the southern BOC.. it is dropping south and will die over the mountains. as the remnants of Amanda's low to mid level vorticity rotates north and then west and out over the BOC overnight and tomorrow the models should begin to tighten the spread.
Yes, the swirl over the BOC is quickly coming together but it is imbedded in the Central American carousel and should move inland later tonight as Aric alluded. My money is on the remnants of Amanda or perhaps another low forming in the gyre......MGC
1 likes
- Nancy Smar
- Category 5
- Posts: 1081
- Age: 23
- Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm
Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion
127
ABNT20 KNHC 312349
TWOAT
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
750 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
tropical cyclone formation over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda are currently
located over northern Guatemala. This system is forecast to move
northwestward to northward within a broader area of disturbed
weather, and it could emerge over the southeastern Bay of Campeche
on Monday. If the remnants move back over water, environmental
conditions appear conducive to support some development, and a new
tropical depression could form while the system moves little through
the middle of this week. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation,
heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern
Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during
the next few days. For additional information on the rainfall
threat, see products from your national meteorological service. The
next update on this system will be in the first regularly scheduled
Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season,
which will be issued by 2 AM EDT Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
ABNT20 KNHC 312349
TWOAT
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
750 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
tropical cyclone formation over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda are currently
located over northern Guatemala. This system is forecast to move
northwestward to northward within a broader area of disturbed
weather, and it could emerge over the southeastern Bay of Campeche
on Monday. If the remnants move back over water, environmental
conditions appear conducive to support some development, and a new
tropical depression could form while the system moves little through
the middle of this week. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation,
heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern
Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during
the next few days. For additional information on the rainfall
threat, see products from your national meteorological service. The
next update on this system will be in the first regularly scheduled
Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season,
which will be issued by 2 AM EDT Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
0 likes
- AnnularCane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2656
- Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
- Location: Wytheville, VA
Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion
Interesting that they put out the new TWO at the same time that it would normally come out during the season. It's almost like they started the regular TWOs 6 hours early.
From what I hear, his name may actually be Cristobal. The whole "Amanda" thing was just a phase.
chaser1 wrote:(tongue & cheek ).
Amber Alert: Large Young Male Tropical Cyclone missing somewhere within Central America vicinity. He may/ may not respond to the name Amanda and is likely to be severely thirsty. (NHC) Family believes he'll be headed toward the Bay of Campeche however he remains scattered & confused. Any information regarding his whereabouts should be immediately conveyed to the S2K Forum Thread - 93 L. While not presently considered dangerous, model analysis suggests a potential grudge toward those living in Texas and Louisiana. He is otherwise a big crybaby and caution should be exercised where ponding or fast moving water exists. Further advices to follow, when warranted.
From what I hear, his name may actually be Cristobal. The whole "Amanda" thing was just a phase.
3 likes
Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion: STW0=50%/60%
Galvbay checking in from Chambers County, TX on East Galveston Bay. Waiting and watching at this point...not really looking forward to kicking off the season this early.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
1 likes
- Nancy Smar
- Category 5
- Posts: 1081
- Age: 23
- Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion: STW0=50%/60%
It's oficial Invest 93L
93L INVEST 200601 0000 20.0N 95.0W ATL 1
93L INVEST 200601 0000 20.0N 95.0W ATL 1
6 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion: STW0=50%/60%
cycloneye wrote:It's oficial Invest 93L
93L INVEST 200601 0000 20.0N 95.0W ATL 1
that is an odd location for it.. lol
1 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion: STW0=50%/60%
Aric Dunn wrote:cycloneye wrote:It's oficial Invest 93L
93L INVEST 200601 0000 20.0N 95.0W ATL 1
that is an odd location for it.. lol
Why is odd?
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Nancy Smar
- Category 5
- Posts: 1081
- Age: 23
- Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm
Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion: STW0=50%/60%
Aric Dunn wrote:cycloneye wrote:It's oficial Invest 93L
93L INVEST 200601 0000 20.0N 95.0W ATL 1
that is an odd location for it.. lol
AL, 93, 2020060100, , BEST, 0, 165N, 900W, 20, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 270, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004, SPAWNINVEST, al742020 to al932020,
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion: STW0=50%/60%
Nancy Smar wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:cycloneye wrote:It's oficial Invest 93L
93L INVEST 200601 0000 20.0N 95.0W ATL 1
that is an odd location for it.. lol
AL, 93, 2020060100, , BEST, 0, 165N, 900W, 20, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 270, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004, SPAWNINVEST, al742020 to al932020,
There you go Aric, new location.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion: STW0=50%/60%
cycloneye wrote:Nancy Smar wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:
that is an odd location for it.. lol
AL, 93, 2020060100, , BEST, 0, 165N, 900W, 20, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 270, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004, SPAWNINVEST, al742020 to al932020,
There you go Aric, new location.
lol I will just wait for the next number...
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:Where are all the Texas and LA people ?? should be buzzing in there already lol ..
Mandeville, La checking in
3 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Yeah neither of those coordinates for Best track make much sense lol they are not any of the vort maxes or the center of the Gyre..
2 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests