ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion

#61 Postby chaser1 » Sun May 31, 2020 5:39 pm

(tongue & cheek :ggreen: ).

Amber Alert: Large Young Male Tropical Cyclone missing somewhere within Central America vicinity. He may/ may not respond to the name Amanda and is likely to be severely thirsty. (NHC) Family believes he'll be headed toward the Bay of Campeche however he remains scattered & confused. Any information regarding his whereabouts should be immediately conveyed to the S2K Forum Thread - 93 L. While not presently considered dangerous, model analysis suggests a potential grudge toward those living in Texas and Louisiana. He is otherwise a big crybaby and caution should be exercised where ponding or fast moving water exists. Further advices to follow, when warranted.
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Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion

#62 Postby DioBrando » Sun May 31, 2020 6:10 pm

chaser1 wrote:(tongue & cheek :ggreen: ).

Amber Alert: Large Young Male Tropical Cyclone missing somewhere within Central America vicinity. He may/ may not respond to the name Amanda and is likely to be severely thirsty. (NHC) Family believes he'll be headed toward the Bay of Campeche however he remains scattered & confused. Any information regarding his whereabouts should be immediately conveyed to the S2K Forum Thread - 93 L. While not presently considered dangerous, model analysis suggests a potential grudge toward those living in Texas and Louisiana. He is otherwise a big crybaby and caution should be exercised where ponding or fast moving water exists. Further advices to follow, when warranted.

Large young male? Crybaby? Hmm...
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Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion

#63 Postby chaser1 » Sun May 31, 2020 6:23 pm

What, did I miss the mark LOL? ⬆️
Gyre - Cristobal (potentially) - Precipitous hot wet mess
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Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion

#64 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun May 31, 2020 6:35 pm

Seems to be a circ quickly developing in the southern BOC.. it is dropping south and will die over the mountains. as the remnants of Amanda's low to mid level vorticity rotates north and then west and out over the BOC overnight and tomorrow the models should begin to tighten the spread.
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Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion

#65 Postby psyclone » Sun May 31, 2020 6:42 pm

Super early season climo often says don't fight/tilt right...which happens more often than not. We'll see what happens this time but the early precip progs from the WPC seem to imply just that...while these are subject to run to run changes, watching the trends on these can be a valuable data point. As of now the hot zone is east of 90 longitude.. While this doesn't necessarily mean a storm will head that direction, a slug of high PWAT air (and attendant heavy rain) likely will. Might be just another deep tropical "plume of gloom"..

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1590968362
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Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion

#66 Postby DioBrando » Sun May 31, 2020 6:45 pm

chaser1 wrote:What, did I miss the mark LOL? ⬆️
Gyre - Cristobal (potentially) - Precipitous hot wet mess

Derp, sorry, was half asleep, I got whatcha meant ahahah. Just wanted to find out if what I thought was right
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Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion

#67 Postby MGC » Sun May 31, 2020 6:47 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Seems to be a circ quickly developing in the southern BOC.. it is dropping south and will die over the mountains. as the remnants of Amanda's low to mid level vorticity rotates north and then west and out over the BOC overnight and tomorrow the models should begin to tighten the spread.


Yes, the swirl over the BOC is quickly coming together but it is imbedded in the Central American carousel and should move inland later tonight as Aric alluded. My money is on the remnants of Amanda or perhaps another low forming in the gyre......MGC
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Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion

#68 Postby Nancy Smar » Sun May 31, 2020 6:50 pm

127
ABNT20 KNHC 312349
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
750 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
tropical cyclone formation over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

The remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda are currently
located over northern Guatemala. This system is forecast to move
northwestward to northward within a broader area of disturbed
weather, and it could emerge over the southeastern Bay of Campeche
on Monday. If the remnants move back over water, environmental
conditions appear conducive to support some development, and a new
tropical depression could form while the system moves little through
the middle of this week. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation,
heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern
Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during
the next few days. For additional information on the rainfall
threat, see products from your national meteorological service. The
next update on this system will be in the first regularly scheduled
Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season,
which will be issued by 2 AM EDT Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion

#69 Postby AnnularCane » Sun May 31, 2020 6:57 pm

Interesting that they put out the new TWO at the same time that it would normally come out during the season. It's almost like they started the regular TWOs 6 hours early.


chaser1 wrote:(tongue & cheek :ggreen: ).

Amber Alert: Large Young Male Tropical Cyclone missing somewhere within Central America vicinity. He may/ may not respond to the name Amanda and is likely to be severely thirsty. (NHC) Family believes he'll be headed toward the Bay of Campeche however he remains scattered & confused. Any information regarding his whereabouts should be immediately conveyed to the S2K Forum Thread - 93 L. While not presently considered dangerous, model analysis suggests a potential grudge toward those living in Texas and Louisiana. He is otherwise a big crybaby and caution should be exercised where ponding or fast moving water exists. Further advices to follow, when warranted.


From what I hear, his name may actually be Cristobal. The whole "Amanda" thing was just a phase. :lol:
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Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion: STW0=50%/60%

#70 Postby galvbay » Sun May 31, 2020 7:04 pm

Galvbay checking in from Chambers County, TX on East Galveston Bay. Waiting and watching at this point...not really looking forward to kicking off the season this early.


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Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion: STW0=50%/60%

#71 Postby Nancy Smar » Sun May 31, 2020 7:26 pm

93L.INVEST.15kts.995mb.20N.95W
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Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion: STW0=50%/60%

#72 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 31, 2020 7:33 pm

It's oficial Invest 93L

93L INVEST 200601 0000 20.0N 95.0W ATL 1
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Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion: STW0=50%/60%

#73 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun May 31, 2020 7:36 pm

cycloneye wrote:It's oficial Invest 93L

93L INVEST 200601 0000 20.0N 95.0W ATL 1



that is an odd location for it.. lol
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Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion: STW0=50%/60%

#74 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 31, 2020 7:40 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
cycloneye wrote:It's oficial Invest 93L

93L INVEST 200601 0000 20.0N 95.0W ATL 1



that is an odd location for it.. lol


Why is odd?
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Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion: STW0=50%/60%

#75 Postby Nancy Smar » Sun May 31, 2020 7:41 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
cycloneye wrote:It's oficial Invest 93L

93L INVEST 200601 0000 20.0N 95.0W ATL 1



that is an odd location for it.. lol

AL, 93, 2020060100, , BEST, 0, 165N, 900W, 20, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 270, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004, SPAWNINVEST, al742020 to al932020,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#76 Postby ROCK » Sun May 31, 2020 7:41 pm

995MB ?? Lol highly suspect
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Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion: STW0=50%/60%

#77 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 31, 2020 7:42 pm

Nancy Smar wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
cycloneye wrote:It's oficial Invest 93L

93L INVEST 200601 0000 20.0N 95.0W ATL 1



that is an odd location for it.. lol

AL, 93, 2020060100, , BEST, 0, 165N, 900W, 20, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 270, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004, SPAWNINVEST, al742020 to al932020,



There you go Aric, new location.
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Re: ATL: PRE - INVEST 93L - Discussion: STW0=50%/60%

#78 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun May 31, 2020 7:44 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Nancy Smar wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:

that is an odd location for it.. lol

AL, 93, 2020060100, , BEST, 0, 165N, 900W, 20, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 270, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004, SPAWNINVEST, al742020 to al932020,



There you go Aric, new location.


lol I will just wait for the next number...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#79 Postby SohCahToa » Sun May 31, 2020 7:45 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Where are all the Texas and LA people ?? should be buzzing in there already lol ..



Mandeville, La checking in
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#80 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun May 31, 2020 7:56 pm

Yeah neither of those coordinates for Best track make much sense lol they are not any of the vort maxes or the center of the Gyre..

Image
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