ATL: DOLLY - Remnants

[wxman57]

The surface center is north of the convection. Now appears to be weakening.

[northjaxpro]

It definitely looks to be acquiring tropical charactetistics.now. It also appears that the CoC is trying to get tuggged closer to the deeper convection just to its southeast on satellite imagery.

I was awaiting to see the updated ASCAT pass, but I think there is enough I am seeing to upgrade this cyclone to Dolly and as a T.S.

[AnnularCane]

I'd prefer something a little longer-lived, but "Dolly" does seem to suit this little one.

[wxman57]

The weak center appears to be moving away from the convection. I think it peaked yesterday and is now slowly weakening. Center at 39.4N / 62.5W

[northjaxpro]

The weak center appears to be moving away from the convection. I think it peaked yesterday and is now slowly weakening. Center at 39.4N / 62.5W

http://wxman57.com/images/Four2.JPG

Yeah, 57 , you are on it. There is some upper level.southeasterly shear over the cyclone, and after going back for a closer observation of the visible imagery, and the CoC is moving actually a bit more northeastward now away from the deeper convection. Earlier it appeared to me that the convection was tugging at the CoC.

It is running out of time to be upgraded as it is about to move over cooler sea surface temps later today and by early this evening.

[wxman57]

New image just in - shows LLC elongating WNW-ESE. Goodbye, Dolly!

[Aric Dunn]

a Center elongating typically happens when convection begins to build ( which is has continued to) in a certain quad... then the center elongates as it gets pulled to the convection super normal.

plenty of sub tropical and even tropical storms have developed with exposed circs..

nothing new here.

if convection conitunes an upgrade will very likely happen.

[wxman57]

a Center elongating typically happens when convection begins to build ( which is has continued to) in a certain quad... then the center elongates as it gets pulled to the convection super normal.

plenty of sub tropical and even tropical storms have developed with exposed circs..

nothing new here.

if convection conitunes an upgrade will very likely happen.

Elongation also happens when a system is being torn apart.

[TheStormExpert]

Yes, there is mid-level shear as well coming out of a northerly direction. No Dolly.

[Aric Dunn]

a Center elongating typically happens when convection begins to build ( which is has continued to) in a certain quad... then the center elongates as it gets pulled to the convection super normal.

plenty of sub tropical and even tropical storms have developed with exposed circs..

nothing new here.

if convection conitunes an upgrade will very likely happen.

Elongation also happens when a system is being torn apart.

Yeppers. as it tries to keep up with the convection.

the center is far more defined and less elongated than yesterday. and only a couple hints of a smaller vort spinning around. unlike yesterday where there were many vorts everywhere which is typical of a sub tropical system.

all in all the only thing keeping this from not being an STS/TS is the winds.

[Nancy Smar]

Recent OSCAT data show that there are some tropical-storm-force winds appearing in the SE quadrant.

[Aric Dunn]

secondary vort just developed..

but is that convection trying to wrap around to the north side... we shall see..

[Nancy Smar]

Dolly is coming!
A 1349 UTC ASCAT-A scatterometer pass showed
winds 35+ kt to the southeast of the center.

[Nancy Smar]

NHC issuing advisories for the Atlantic on TS Dolly

[Aric Dunn]

Dolly is coming! A 1349 UTC ASCAT-A scatterometer pass showed
winds 35+ kt to the southeast of the center.

Yeah not surprised. despite the multiple vorts now. the low level inflow fetch across the gulf stream could not be anymore perfect aligned. the stronger WSW to SW winds are coming right across it.

convection is trying to wrap around.

[Aric Dunn]

it also went fully tropical.. as suspected.


"000
WTNT64 KNHC 231613
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Dolly Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020
1215 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020

...DOLLY FORMS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Subtropical
Depression Four has strengthened, and maximum sustained winds are
now 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. In addition, the wind
field has contracted, and the system has made a transition to a
tropical storm.

A Special Advisory on Tropical Storm Dolly will be issued by 100 PM
AST (1700 UTC) to update the intensity forecast.


SUMMARY OF 1215 PM AST...1615 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 61.9W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Brown"

[TheStormExpert]

Yes, there is mid-level shear as well coming out of a northerly direction. No Dolly.

I spoke too soon, this did not age well!

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1275466180019421189



 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1275466347317587968

[northjaxpro]

WOW. I went against my own intuition earlier. We did get Dolly after all. It is shaping up to be one heck a season.
.

[Aric Dunn]

WOW. I went against my own intuition earlier. We did get Dolly after all. It is shaping up to be one heck a season.
.

well do that now..