ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[STRiZZY]

0z Euro 126hr out looks to be faster and more to the south than the 12z.

[STRiZZY]

0z Euro 168hrs out and it's further south and faster than the 12z, misses Hispaniola. Almost the same track as yesterday's 0z run but a tad bit weaker.

[TheStormExpert]

Of course we get the GFS to finally develop this for only the Euro to become less bullish on development.

[WxEp]

00Z Euro went with a weaker solution this run and that lead to a track further south. From what I can see, the overall synoptic setup on this run is relatively unchanged, especially through 120 hours. A weaker storm leads to a track through the Caribbean; a stronger storm leads to a more northerly track. This dynamic can be seen in all the recent EPS runs. Most of the southern ensemble tracks are and stay weak, and most of the northern tracks are significantly stronger. Will be interesting to see the ensemble spread from tonight.

[TheStormExpert]

The 00z EPS will be interesting to see if they become less bullish like the operational Euro run.

[STRiZZY]

00Z Euro went with a weaker solution this run and that lead to a track further south. From what I can see, the overall synoptic setup on this run is relatively unchanged, especially through 120 hours. A weaker storm leads to a track through the Caribbean; a stronger storm leads to a more northerly track. This dynamic can be seen in all the recent EPS runs. Most of the southern ensemble tracks are and stay weak, and most of the northern tracks are significantly stronger. Will be interesting to see the ensemble spread from tonight.

Looking at the deep layer shear maps between this and the previous 0z there's a whole lot more of it now. That could be what kept it from intensifying like yesterday's run did. They virtually had the same track and timing.

[WxEp]

00Z Euro went with a weaker solution this run and that lead to a track further south. From what I can see, the overall synoptic setup on this run is relatively unchanged, especially through 120 hours. A weaker storm leads to a track through the Caribbean; a stronger storm leads to a more northerly track. This dynamic can be seen in all the recent EPS runs. Most of the southern ensemble tracks are and stay weak, and most of the northern tracks are significantly stronger. Will be interesting to see the ensemble spread from tonight.

Looking at the deep layer shear maps between this and the previous 0z there's a whole lot more of it now. That could be what kept it from intensifying like yesterday's run did. They virtually had the same track and timing.

That's good information - I don't have access to those maps. Thanks! Certainly something to keep an eye on.

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah 00z Euro Ensembles (EPS) are slightly more bullish when compared to yesterday’s afternoon 12z Ensembles. Though there’s two camps: those that strengthen 92L move it north of Hispaniola into the Bahamas and towards the SE U.S., while the weaker solutions show a Caribbean cruiser a lot like the operational run this morning.

[SFLcane]

00z EPS still very bullish concentration near FL.

[AxaltaRacing24]

and right as the euro backs off slightly, the GFS blows it up.

[SFLcane]

06z GFS similar to some EPS members.

[aspen]

06z GFS similar to some EPS members.

https://iili.io/dIsMgt.gif

I can’t be the only one getting Dorian vibes from that track. Starts as a low rider in the MDR, pulls north at the Lesser Antilles, passes through the Greater Antilles, and heads into the Bahamas.

[northjaxpro]

My God not an image the people in the Bahamas want to see after the Dorian catastrophe last year.

We will be watching very nervously for them and here anywhere on the Southeast U.S. Coast in the next 7-10 days.

The timing with a trough that will be positioned over the Northeast U.S. in the next 7-10 days, and where exactly in relation to where Isaias will be is going to be very critical as to the eventual path down the road.

[aspen]

With their latest runs, the GFS and CMC are finally on board with development, and both are fairly aggressive when future Isaias gets north of the Greater Antilles. Euro is weaker, but the storm is still clearly there and develops around the same time.

Based on the model consensus, Isaias will develop sometime between late Monday and early Wednesday. It will reach the islands at around 120-ish hours. Like what was mentioned before, a weaker storm will stay further south (Euro), while a stronger one will get pulled to the north (GFS and CMC). The former scenario could potentially lead to a powerful hurricane in the W Carib/Gulf down the line, and the latter scenario could have a hurricane blowing up near the Bahamas and/or Florida.

[Shell Mound]

a weaker storm will stay further south (Euro)

Actually, the operational ECMWF is an outlier relative to roughly half of the EC ensembles, many of which are stronger/farther N this cycle vs. yesterday’s 12Z:


Source

[northjaxpro]

You beat me to posting about this very point. EURO and decent number of its ensembles have gone stronger and poleward with future Isaias for that Aug 2 timeframe.

[Highteeld]

UKmet remains bullish, but confidence is not very high this far out

[aspen]

If the northward track through the Greater Antilles verifies, we could be looking at a very Dorian-like scenario where how strong Isaias becomes heavily depends on if the center passes between the islands. The ICON won out with Dorian and successfully predicted a safe passage between PR and the Virgin Islands. However, we’ll need to wait a few days for this to actually develop to have a better idea on these pretty tiny track differences.

[OuterBanker]

Yeah 00z Euro Ensembles (EPS) are slightly more bullish when compared to yesterday’s afternoon 12z Ensembles. Though there’s two camps: those that strengthen 92L move it north of Hispaniola into the Bahamas and towards the SE U.S., while the weaker solutions show a Caribbean cruiser a lot like the operational run this morning.

https://i.ibb.co/m5XH37F/50-B1-C5-CA-55-D0-431-C-95-C4-EA0-A9-D02-A957.png

I

How interesting. At first I thought the light green was a tropical storm. The I read the legend and realized the yellowish green was a hurricane.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Looks like more GFS ensembles members are showing a stronger storm.